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FRANCE › LIGUE 1
18.10.2026 15:15
Stade Océane

Le Havre vs Auxerre Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Le Havre Win 34.3%
Draw 21.2%
Auxerre Win 44.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Le Havre1.62
Auxerre1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Le Havre Le Havre
WWDLW
17 GF / 17 GA
Auxerre Auxerre
WLDWL
21 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.31
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
2.08
8
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
8
4.5
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Le Havre Le Havre 13 matches
Auxerre Auxerre 12 matches
Le Havre Statistic Auxerre
3 Wins 5
3 Draws 2
7 Losses 5
17 Goals For 21
17 Goals Against 25
1.31 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 2.08
8 BTTS Yes 10
8 Over 1.5 10
6 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 0
4.5 Shots On Goal 5
15.83 Total Shots 12
5.5 Corners 5.83
49.2% Ball Possession 44.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Auxerre. Auxerre carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 14 with 6 points while Le Havre sit 18 on 2, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Le Havre expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Auxerre in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Auxerre having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Le Havre Analysis

With 2 points from 6 games and a place of 18, Le Havre still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 4:8, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Samatta (2 goals), J. Maja (1 goals), with creative support from S. Nakamura (1 assists), Fodé Doucouré (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Auxerre Analysis

Auxerre sit 14 with 6 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 7:12, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through C. Archer (3 goals), D. Namaso (1 goals), L. Sy (1 goals), with creative support from D. Namaso (1 assists), C. Makosso (1 assists), R. Faivre (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Le Havre won 8 times, Auxerre won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:14 from Le Havre's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (78.8%)
Predicted formations: Le Havre 4-2-3-1 / Auxerre 3-4-3
H2H summary: Le Havre wins 8, draws 5, Auxerre wins 2

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 2 0 10:5 5 14
D W D W W
2 6 4 1 1 9:4 5 13
W L W W D
3 6 4 1 1 12:10 2 13
W L W W W
4 6 3 2 1 11:4 7 11
L W D W D
5 6 3 2 1 8:4 4 11
L W D W W
6 6 3 2 1 11:8 3 11
W W W L D
7 6 2 2 2 12:9 3 8
W L L W D
8 6 2 2 2 6:6 0 8
W L D W L
9 6 2 2 2 5:7 -2 8
W W L D L
10 6 2 1 3 11:10 1 7
W L D L L
11 6 2 1 3 11:12 -1 7
L L D W W
12 6 2 1 3 7:10 -3 7
L W D L W
13 6 2 0 4 9:8 1 6
W L L L L
14 6 1 3 2 10:12 -2 6
L W D D L
15 6 1 3 2 9:11 -2 6
D W D L D
16 6 2 0 4 8:16 -8 6
L W W L L
17 6 1 1 4 4:13 -9 4
L L L L W
18 6 0 2 4 4:8 -4 2
L L D L D
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