ECUADOR LIGA PRO
20.09.2026 23:30
Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado
Referee: B. L. Salazar

LDU de Quito vs Universidad Catolica Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
65.5%
1.67
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.88
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.9%
1.21
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
7.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
12.00
Probability Distribution
LDU de Quito Win 34.5%
Draw 18.7%
Universidad Catolica Win 46.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
LDU de Quito1.08
Universidad Catolica1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
WWDLW
48 GF / 36 GA
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica
WLDWL
56 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.12
Average Goals Scored
1.7
0.84
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
16
BTTS Yes
18
11
Over 2.5
16
3.38
Shots on Goal
4.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 43 matches
Universidad Catolica Universidad Catolica 33 matches
LDU de Quito Statistic Universidad Catolica
19 Wins 15
11 Draws 9
13 Losses 9
48 Goals For 56
36 Goals Against 34
1.12 Avg Goals Scored 1.7
0.84 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
16 BTTS Yes 18
26 Over 1.5 24
11 Over 2.5 16
5 Over 3.5 10
16 Clean Sheets 12
16 Failed To Score 5
3.38 Shots On Goal 4.84
13.6 Total Shots 14.25
5.25 Corners 4.5
50.2% Ball Possession 58.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with LDU de Quito expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Universidad Catolica in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universidad Catolica having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Universidad Catolica. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

LDU de Quito Analysis

LDU de Quito arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 46 points after 30 matches. The record of 13 wins, 7 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 31:24 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Estrada (6 goals), Deyverson (5 goals), Yerlin Quinonez (2 goals), with creative support from Deyverson (2 assists), Yerlin Quinonez (2 assists), M. Estrada (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Universidad Catolica Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 51 points from 30 games, Universidad Catolica bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 14 wins, 9 draws, and 7 defeats, together with goals at 51:27, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Fajardo (10 goals), D. Clavijo (5 goals), M. Alonso (5 goals), with creative support from M. Díaz (10 assists), J. Fajardo (3 assists), D. Clavijo (3 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 4 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, LDU de Quito won 1 times, Universidad Catolica won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:7 from LDU de Quito's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.3%)
Predicted formations: LDU de Quito 3-4-1-2 / Universidad Catolica 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: LDU de Quito wins 1, draws 2, Universidad Catolica wins 2

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W W L W W
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
L D D D W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
W L W D L
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
D L D W L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
D W L L W
10 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
11 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 36
L L W D W
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs