ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio Rodrigo Paz Delgado

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 74%
Odds 2.70
BTTS
No
Probability 55%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.99
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
74%
2.70
BTTS No
55%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.99
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.1%
1.83
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 0-3
-
26.00
Probability Distribution
LDU de Quito Win 22.7%
Draw 3.4%
Independiente del Valle Win 74%
Expected Goals (xG)
LDU de Quito1.08
Independiente del Valle1.69
Recent Form (Last 5)
LDU de Quito LDU de Quito
WWDLW
36 GF / 26 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
68 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
2.27
0.81
Average Goals Conceded
1
11
BTTS Yes
15
8
Over 2.5
19
3.62
Shots on Goal
6.07

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

LDU de Quito LDU de Quito 32 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 30 matches
LDU de Quito Statistic Independiente del Valle
15 Wins 23
7 Draws 2
10 Losses 5
36 Goals For 68
26 Goals Against 30
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 2.27
0.81 Avg Goals Conceded 1
11 BTTS Yes 15
19 Over 1.5 25
8 Over 2.5 19
3 Over 3.5 13
12 Clean Sheets 12
12 Failed To Score 4
3.62 Shots On Goal 6.07
14.45 Total Shots 17.55
5.34 Corners 6.17
49.6% Ball Possession 54.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Independiente del Valle. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with LDU de Quito expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 55 points while LDU de Quito sit 6 on 32, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

LDU de Quito Analysis

From their first 22 matches, LDU de Quito have collected 32 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. The record of 9 wins, 5 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 21:17 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Deyverson (4 goals), M. Estrada (3 goals), R. Redes (2 goals), with creative support from Deyverson (1 assists), M. Estrada (1 assists), R. Redes (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 55 points after 22 matches. They have recorded 18 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, with a 55:22 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Matías Perello (6 goals), Emerson Pata (6 goals), Djorkaeff Reasco (5 goals), with creative support from Arón Rodríguez (4 assists), Juan Viacava (4 assists), Djorkaeff Reasco (3 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 10 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, LDU de Quito won 6 times, Independiente del Valle won 2 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:12 from LDU de Quito's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: LDU de Quito 3-5-2 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: LDU de Quito wins 6, draws 7, Independiente del Valle wins 2
Last matches: LDU de Quito
04.08.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Delfin SC
2
1
W
27.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Manta FC
1
1
D
18.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
15.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Universidad Catolica
0
1
L
12.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Libertad
0
0
D
05.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Macara
0
1
L
01.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Orense SC
3
0
W
18.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
26.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Always Ready
3
2
W
24.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
21.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Lanus
2
0
W
15.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
12.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
07.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
0
2
L
02.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
28.04.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Lanus
0
1
L
25.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Emelec
0
1
L
23.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Aucas
0
0
D
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
02.08.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
1
0
W
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
3
2
W
22.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
3
0
W
20.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
6
1
W
16.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3
0
W
11.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
4
1
W
04.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
4
0
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
27.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
1
0
W
23.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Libertad
2
3
L
20.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
4
1
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
10.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Barcelona SC
1
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
25.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
22.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
1
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
3
1
W
H2H: LDU de Quito vs Independiente del Valle
19.04.26
H2H
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
0
2
W
10.12.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
29.11.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
1
W
22.06.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
1
1
D
23.02.25
H2H
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
14.12.24
H2H
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
1
0
L
07.12.24
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
3
0
W
09.11.24
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
1
W
18.05.24
H2H
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
17.12.23
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
1
1
D
10.12.23
H2H
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
0
0
D
04.11.23
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
28.05.23
H2H
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
2
3
W
17.09.22
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
2
D
02.05.22
H2H
Independiente del Valle
LDU de Quito
1
0
L
Last matches: LDU de Quito
04.08.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Delfin SC
2
1
W
18.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Leones del Norte
0
1
L
12.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Libertad
0
0
D
01.07.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Orense SC
3
0
W
18.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
0
0
D
17.06.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
26.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Always Ready
3
2
W
21.05.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Lanus
2
0
W
15.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
02.05.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Guayaquil City FC
1
0
W
23.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Aucas
0
0
D
15.04.26
CON
LDU de Quito
Mirassol
2
0
W
04.04.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Barcelona SC
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Manta FC
1
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Universidad Catolica
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
LDU de Quito
Macara
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
LDU de Quito
Always Ready
4
2
W
H2H at home: LDU de Quito
29.11.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
1
W
22.06.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
1
1
D
07.12.24
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
3
0
W
09.11.24
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
1
W
17.12.23
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
1
1
D
04.11.23
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
0
W
17.09.22
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
2
D
Last matches: Independiente del Valle
26.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Orense SC
3
2
W
16.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Aucas
3
0
W
11.07.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Mushuc Runa SC
4
1
W
31.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Guayaquil City FC
4
2
W
16.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Macara
3
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
UCV
0
2
L
01.05.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Universidad Catolica
3
2
W
28.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Libertad Asuncion
3
2
W
22.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Delfin SC
1
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Deportivo Cuenca
3
2
W
09.04.26
CON
Independiente del Valle
Rosario Central
0
0
D
22.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Tecnico Universitario
2
1
W
20.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Emelec
0
2
L
03.03.26
Lig
Independiente del Valle
Manta FC
2
0
W
H2H away: Independiente del Valle
29.11.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
1
L
22.06.25
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
1
1
D
07.12.24
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
3
0
L
09.11.24
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
1
L
17.12.23
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
1
1
D
04.11.23
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
0
L
17.09.22
H2H
LDU de Quito
Independiente del Valle
2
2
D
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.70
Draw 3.13
Home 2.67
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.28
Draw 2.18
Home 3.24
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 2.0 1.48
Over 2.25 1.74
Over 2.5 1.99
Over 2.75 2.26
Over 3.0 2.74
Over 3.5 3.36
Over 4.5 6.37
Under 1.5 3.38
Under 2.0 2.58
Under 2.25 2.06
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 2.75 1.62
Under 3.0 1.43
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.60
Draw 3.30
Home 2.60
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.10
Home 3.25
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 2.40
Home 2.88
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.5 3.50
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 51.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.68
Draw 3.14
Home 2.65
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.34
Draw 1.97
Home 3.24
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.90
Draw 2.38
Home 2.84
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 0.75 1.03
Over 1.0 1.04
Over 1.25 1.16
Over 1.5 1.28
Over 1.75 1.36
Over 2.0 1.47
Over 2.25 1.74
Over 2.5 1.96
Over 2.75 2.19
Over 3.0 2.70
Over 3.25 2.95
Over 3.5 3.32
Over 3.75 4.02
Over 4.0 6.11
Over 4.25 5.90
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.0 10.40
Over 5.5 13.50
Over 6.5 29.00
Over 7.5 50.00
Under 0.5 8.30
Under 0.75 7.70
Under 1.0 7.15
Under 1.25 4.23
Under 1.5 3.18
Under 1.75 2.83
Under 2.0 2.47
Under 2.25 2.03
Under 2.5 1.79
Under 2.75 1.59
Under 3.0 1.42
Under 3.25 1.32
Under 3.5 1.29
Under 3.75 1.17
Under 4.0 1.09
Under 4.25 1.07
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.02
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.65
Draw 3.25
Home 2.50
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.25
Draw 2.16
Home 3.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.90
Draw 2.48
Home 2.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.29
Over 2.0 1.46
Over 2.25 1.68
Over 2.5 1.91
Over 2.75 2.18
Over 3.0 2.65
Over 3.25 2.95
Over 3.5 3.25
Over 3.75 4.00
Over 4.0 5.40
Over 4.25 5.60
Over 4.5 6.00
Under 1.5 3.20
Under 2.0 2.48
Under 2.25 2.00
Under 2.5 1.76
Under 2.75 1.58
Under 3.0 1.40
Under 3.25 1.33
Under 3.5 1.28
Under 3.75 1.19
Under 4.0 1.11
Under 4.25 1.09
Under 4.5 1.08

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 1 3 56:22 34 58
W W W W W
2 23 11 6 6 38:19 19 39
W D W W W
3 23 11 5 7 30:23 7 38
W W W L W
4 23 11 5 7 26:25 1 38
W L L W L
5 23 9 8 6 24:18 6 35
D L L W D
6 23 10 5 8 23:18 5 35
W W D L L
7 23 8 8 7 24:22 2 32
D W D W D
8 23 9 4 10 21:28 -7 31
L W L L D
9 23 8 6 9 24:26 -2 30
W W W L W
10 23 7 7 9 29:34 -5 28
W L D W L
11 23 7 7 9 20:25 -5 28
L D D W D
12 23 7 5 11 27:35 -8 26
L L W L L
13 23 8 2 13 20:29 -9 26
L W L L L
14 23 7 7 9 19:28 -9 25
L L D L W
15 23 6 5 12 14:23 -9 23
L L L W W
16 23 3 5 15 9:29 -20 14
L L D L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs