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24.10.2026 18:45
Stadio Olimpico
Referee: Alberto Ruben Arena, Italy
Lazio
Match Timeline
Parma
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
30'
Oliver Provstgaard
Lazio
🟨
38'
Vincent Sierro
Parma
🔄
46'
O. Provstgaard ↔ D. Leite
Lazio
🔄
46'
V. Sierro ↔ A. Bernabe
Parma
⚽
51'
K. Taylor
Lazio
⚽
58'
Diego Carlos
Lazio
🔄
64'
C. Ordonez ↔ S. Lontani
Parma
🔄
71'
K. Taylor ↔ F. Dele-Bashiru
Lazio
🔄
73'
Diego Carlos ↔ M. Frigan
Parma
🔄
77'
M. Zaccagni ↔ A. Pedraza
Lazio
🔄
77'
G. Isaksen ↔ M. Lazzari
Lazio
🔄
79'
D. Romero ↔ G. Fabbian
Parma
⚽
90'
S. Lontani · Assist: G. Fabbian
Parma

Lazio vs Parma Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 85.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
85.2%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lazio Win 85.2%
Draw 5%
Parma Win 9.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lazio2.13
Parma0.76
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lazio Lazio
W W D W W
13 GF / 4 GA
Parma Parma
L L W L D
4 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
2.6
Average Goals Scored
0.64
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
7
BTTS Yes
6
10
Over 2.5
4
4
Shots on Goal
3.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lazio Lazio 15 matches
Parma Parma 14 matches
Lazio Statistic Parma
12 Wins 2
2 Draws 5
1 Losses 7
39 Goals For 9
14 Goals Against 20
2.6 Avg Goals Scored 0.64
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
7 BTTS Yes 6
13 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 4
6 Over 3.5 0
7 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 7
4 Shots On Goal 3.78
13.88 Total Shots 10.67
5.38 Corners 4.11
51.1% Ball Possession 43.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Lazio's more proactive style and Parma's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Lazio arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 16 points compared to Parma in 18 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lazio expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Parma in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Parma having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Parma. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lazio come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Lazio Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 16 points from 6 games, Lazio bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 11:4, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through D. Frattesi (3 goals), T. Noslin (2 goals), M. Zaccagni (1 goals), with creative support from T. Noslin (2 assists), M. Zaccagni (2 assists), Nuno Tavares (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, their record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Parma Analysis

With 4 points from 6 games and a place of 18, Parma still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 4:10, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Romero (2 goals), Pontus Almqvist (1 goals), S. Lontani (1 goals), with creative support from Pontus Almqvist (1 assists), E. Touré (1 assists), N. Elphege (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lazio won 11 times, Parma won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:12 from Lazio's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95%)
Predicted formations: Lazio 4-3-3 / Parma 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Lazio 4, Parma 4
H2H summary: Lazio wins 11, draws 3, Parma wins 1

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Lazio Home
10 9 1 0 24:8 16 28
W W W W W
2 10 8 1 1 26:13 13 25
L W W W W
3 10 7 3 0 28:10 18 24
W W D W D
4 10 7 2 1 18:8 10 23
W W W W D
5 10 6 3 1 21:12 9 21
W L W W D
6 10 6 2 2 24:14 10 20
W W D W L
7 10 5 2 3 13:10 3 17
W L W L D
8 10 4 2 4 17:13 4 14
L W D L W
9 10 4 2 4 14:13 1 14
W W W L W
10 10 4 1 5 14:16 -2 13
L L W W W
11 10 4 1 5 10:14 -4 13
W W W L W
12 10 4 1 5 9:15 -6 13
L L L L D
13 10 3 2 5 16:20 -4 11
L D D L W
14 10 3 0 7 11:21 -10 9
L L L W L
15
Parma Away
10 2 2 6 8:15 -7 8
W D L L L
16 10 2 2 6 15:23 -8 8
W D L L L
17 10 2 2 6 16:26 -10 8
L L L L D
18 10 2 1 7 17:24 -7 7
L L L W L
19 10 1 2 7 11:23 -12 5
L D L L L
20 10 1 0 9 6:20 -14 3
L L L W L
Champions League league stage
Europa League league stage
Play-offs
Relegation