04.10.2026 16:30
Gran Canaria
Referee: Manuel Angel Perez Hernandez
Las Palmas
Match Timeline
Valladolid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
Valentín Alejandro Pezzolesi · Assist: Iván Jaime
Las Palmas
⚽
10'
Juan Miguel Latasa · Assist: Víctor Fernández
Valladolid
⚽
26'
Julien Ponceau · Assist: Víctor Fernández
Valladolid
🟨
35'
Mathis Lachuer
Valladolid
🟨
45'
Iván Jaime
Las Palmas
⚽
54'
Elías Romero · Assist: Jesé Rodríguez
Las Palmas
🔄
63'
Mathis Lachuer ↔ Kaj de Rooij
Valladolid
🔄
67'
Elías Romero ↔ Manu Fuster
Las Palmas
🔄
72'
Jesé Rodríguez ↔ Jefte Betancor Sanchez
Las Palmas
🔄
72'
Andrés Rodríguez Martínez ↔ Adrián Rodríguez del Rosario
Las Palmas
🔄
77'
Iván Garriel ↔ Carlos Clerc
Valladolid
🔄
77'
Adrian Arnu ↔ Victor Barbera
Valladolid
🔄
77'
Julien Ponceau ↔ Thiago Ezequiel Ojeda
Valladolid
🟨
77'
Francisco Escriba Segura
Valladolid
🟨
78'
Víctor Fernández
Valladolid
🟨
82'
Kaj de Rooij
Valladolid
🔄
82'
Víctor Fernández ↔ Yeray Cabanzón
Valladolid
🔄
88'
Iván Jaime ↔ Ivan Medina
Las Palmas
🟨
90'
Yeray Cabanzón
Valladolid
🟨
90+2'
Ivan Medina
Las Palmas
🟨
90+4'
Giovanni Bonfanti
Las Palmas

Las Palmas vs Valladolid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 71.6%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.80
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
71.6%
1.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.80 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.9%
1.46 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-1
-
6.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Las Palmas Win 51%
Draw 20.6%
Valladolid Win 28.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Las Palmas1.28
Valladolid1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Las Palmas Las Palmas
WWDLW
17 GF / 18 GA
Valladolid Valladolid
WLDWL
17 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.42
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
7
BTTS Yes
5
7
Over 2.5
5
3.86
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Las Palmas Las Palmas 12 matches
Valladolid Valladolid 12 matches
Las Palmas Statistic Valladolid
5 Wins 5
1 Draws 3
6 Losses 4
17 Goals For 17
18 Goals Against 13
1.42 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
7 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 8
7 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 5
3.86 Shots On Goal 4
10.43 Total Shots 11.71
4.29 Corners 3.29
54.3% Ball Possession 49.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Las Palmas expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Valladolid in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Valladolid having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Valladolid. Las Palmas arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 11 with 10 points compared to Valladolid in 19 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Las Palmas Analysis

Las Palmas sit 11 with 10 points after 6 league matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 8:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by T. Miyashiro (2 goals), Jesé (2 goals), Manu Fuster (1 goals), with creative support from T. Miyashiro (2 assists), Manu Fuster (1 assists), Iñaki González Zambrano (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Valladolid Analysis

Valladolid sit 19 with 5 points after 6 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 3:8 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Luis Chacón (1 goals), Juanmi Latasa (1 goals), with creative support from J. Ponceau (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Las Palmas won 4 times, Valladolid won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:7 from Las Palmas's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.4%)
Predicted formations: Las Palmas 4-4-2 / Valladolid 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Las Palmas wins 4, draws 2, Valladolid wins 1

Standings

Segunda
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 18:7 11 21
W W W W W
2 7 6 1 0 14:2 12 19
W W W W W
3 8 6 0 2 13:5 8 18
W W W W W
4 8 4 2 2 12:9 3 14
L W W W D
5 7 4 1 2 14:8 6 13
W W L W W
6 7 4 1 2 8:3 5 13
L W W D W
7 7 3 3 1 8:6 2 12
D W L W W
8 8 3 2 3 8:8 0 11
L W L W D
9 7 3 2 2 8:9 -1 11
D L W D L
10 8 3 2 3 6:11 -5 11
L L W L D
11 7 3 1 3 10:11 -1 10
L L W D L
12 7 3 1 3 5:6 -1 10
L W L L W
13 7 2 2 3 10:11 -1 8
L L D L W
14 7 2 2 3 9:10 -1 8
L L W D D
15 8 2 2 4 8:10 -2 8
W L L W D
16 7 2 2 3 8:11 -3 8
D L L W L
17 7 2 2 3 6:9 -3 8
W D L W D
18 8 1 4 3 11:10 1 7
W D L L L
19 7 2 0 5 12:15 -3 6
W L L L L
20 7 2 0 5 10:16 -6 6
L W L L L
21 7 1 1 5 6:17 -11 4
W D L L L
22 8 0 1 7 5:15 -10 1
L L L D L
Promotion - LaLiga
Promotion - LaLiga2 (Promotion - Play Offs: Semi-finals)
Relegation