SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
03.05.2026 19:00
Estadio de Gran Canaria
Referee: J. A. Gonzalez Esteban
Las Palmas
Match Timeline
Valladolid
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
Jese · Assist: M. Fuster
Las Palmas
🟨
32'
Julien Ponceau
Valladolid
🟨
50'
Clément Michelin
Valladolid
56'
E. Pedrola · Assist: M. Fuster
Las Palmas
🔄
64'
V. A. Meseguer Cavas ↔ A. Ndiaye
Valladolid
🔄
65'
L. Sanseviero ↔ J. Latasa
Valladolid
🔄
66'
A. Garcia ↔ T. Miyashiro
Las Palmas
🔄
70'
M. Jaouab ↔ R. Martinez
Valladolid
🔄
70'
C. Clerc ↔ H. Modesto
Valladolid
🔄
74'
E. Pedrola ↔ Marvin
Las Palmas
🔄
74'
Jese ↔ I. Bravo
Las Palmas
🔄
74'
J. Ponceau ↔ I. Alani
Valladolid
80'
S. Biuk
Valladolid
VAR
82'
Stipe Biuk
Valladolid
🔄
85'
M. Fuster ↔ I. Gil
Las Palmas
🔄
85'
E. Clemente ↔ J. Herzog
Las Palmas
🟨
90+3'
Sergio Barcia
Las Palmas

Las Palmas vs Valladolid Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
68.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Las Palmas Win 90.9%
Draw 0%
Valladolid Win 9.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Las Palmas1.31
Valladolid0.99
Recent Form (Last 5)
Las Palmas Las Palmas
WWDLW
50 GF / 34 GA
Valladolid Valladolid
WLDWL
40 GF / 49 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.05
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
20
BTTS Yes
15
16
Over 2.5
16
4.11
Shots on Goal
4.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Las Palmas Las Palmas 38 matches
Valladolid Valladolid 38 matches
Las Palmas Statistic Valladolid
17 Wins 11
12 Draws 10
9 Losses 17
50 Goals For 40
34 Goals Against 49
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
20 BTTS Yes 15
26 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 16
8 Over 3.5 9
14 Clean Sheets 10
9 Failed To Score 16
4.11 Shots On Goal 4.05
11.79 Total Shots 12.78
4.29 Corners 5.54
54.9% Ball Possession 49.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Las Palmas's more proactive style and Valladolid's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Las Palmas arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 63 points compared to Valladolid in 15 on 43, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Valladolid. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Las Palmas come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Las Palmas Analysis

Operating from 5 place with 63 points from 37 games, Las Palmas bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 17 wins, 12 draws, and 8 defeats plus a goal balance of 49:31, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Fuster (8 goals), A. Garcia (7 goals), Jese (7 goals), with creative support from M. Fuster (8 assists), L. Amatucci (4 assists), Jese (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the split of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Valladolid Analysis

Valladolid approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 43 points from 37 matches. The overall return of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 16 defeats with a 40:48 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Chuki (7 goals), J. Latasa (6 goals), Peter González (6 goals), with creative support from Chuki (7 assists), S. Biuk (5 assists), Julien Ponceau (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Las Palmas won 4 times, Valladolid won 1 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:7 from Las Palmas's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Las Palmas 4-2-3-1 / Valladolid 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Las Palmas wins 4, draws 2, Valladolid wins 1

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
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