GREECE SUPER LEAGUE 1
16.05.2026 16:00
AEL FC Arena
Referee: S. Zampalas
Larisa
Match Timeline
Atromitos
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
Y. Macon
Larisa
34'
L. Tupta · Assist: A. Sagal
Larisa
🟨
38'
Dimitrios Tsakmakis
Atromitos
🟨
48'
Lazar Rosić
Larisa
VAR
48'
Georgios Tzovaras
Atromitos
🔄
68'
P. Tsantilas ↔ S. Pnevmonidis
Atromitos
🔄
68'
S. Tsiloulis ↔ M. Baku
Atromitos
🟨
71'
Gerasimos Mitoglou
Atromitos
🔄
78'
G. Tzovaras ↔ T. van Weert
Atromitos
🔄
84'
A. Sagal ↔ Z. Chatzistravos
Larisa
🟨
86'
Samuel Moutoussamy
Atromitos
🔄
87'
S. Moutoussamy ↔ S. Ampartzidis
Atromitos
🔄
87'
E. Ukaki ↔ Quini
Atromitos
🔄
89'
G. Pasas ↔ L. Garate
Larisa
🟨
90+10'
Spyros Abartzidis
Atromitos
🔄
90+3'
L. Rosic ↔ T. Iliadis
Larisa
90'
M. Baku · Assist: A. Karamanis
Atromitos

Larisa vs Atromitos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 9.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
9.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Larisa Win 19.8%
Draw 17.4%
Atromitos Win 62.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Larisa1
Atromitos1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Larisa Larisa
WWDLW
30 GF / 52 GA
Atromitos Atromitos
WLDWL
42 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
20
BTTS Yes
16
12
Over 2.5
17
3.76
Shots on Goal
3.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Larisa Larisa 34 matches
Atromitos Atromitos 34 matches
Larisa Statistic Atromitos
4 Wins 11
15 Draws 10
15 Losses 13
30 Goals For 42
52 Goals Against 40
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
20 BTTS Yes 16
27 Over 1.5 23
12 Over 2.5 17
6 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 11
10 Failed To Score 11
3.76 Shots On Goal 3.29
11.21 Total Shots 10.62
3.79 Corners 4.26
45.8% Ball Possession 52.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atromitos. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Larisa expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Atromitos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atromitos having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Larisa Analysis

Larisa sit 6 with 26 points after 33 league matches. The record of 4 wins, 14 draws, and 15 defeats, together with a 29:51 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ángelo Sagal (6 goals), G. Pasas (5 goals), Ľubomír Tupta (5 goals), with creative support from Ľubomír Tupta (2 assists), Savvas Mourgos (2 assists), Ángelo Sagal (1 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atromitos Analysis

Atromitos come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 40 points after 33 matches. With 10 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats plus a goal balance of 39:40, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Makana Baku (7 goals), D. Jubitana (5 goals), Ognjen Ožegović (3 goals), with creative support from P. Michorl (6 assists), Makana Baku (5 assists), Jere Uronen (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Larisa won 2 times, Atromitos won 7 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:21 from Larisa's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.6%)
Predicted formations: Larisa 4-1-4-1 / Atromitos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Larisa wins 2, draws 6, Atromitos wins 7

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 18 6 2 49:17 32 60
D D W D W
2 26 17 7 2 45:11 34 58
D W D L W
3 26 17 6 3 52:17 35 57
D D D W L
4 26 14 7 5 44:26 18 49
D L L D L
5 26 12 6 8 51:37 14 42
L W W W L
6 26 10 2 14 34:45 -11 32
W L L L W
7 26 9 4 13 26:38 -12 31
L L L L L
8 26 6 12 8 20:27 -7 30
W W W W W
9 26 7 8 11 26:30 -4 29
W L W L L
10 26 6 9 11 32:42 -10 27
W D L W W
11 26 7 5 14 24:38 -14 26
L D D W L
12 26 4 11 11 22:39 -17 23
L W D D D
13 26 4 5 17 16:55 -39 17
L D L L D
14 26 3 8 15 22:41 -19 17
W D W D W
Championship round
Qualifying round
Relegation Round