GREECE SUPER LEAGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
AEL FC Arena
Referee: A. Evangelou
Larisa
Match Timeline
Asteras Tripolis
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Goni Naor
Larisa
19'
F. Macheda · Assist: C. Almyras
Asteras Tripolis
🟨
23'
Konstantinos Triantafyllopoulos
Asteras Tripolis
🟨
34'
Nikolai Alho
Asteras Tripolis
38'
G. Pasas · Assist: A. Sagal
Larisa
🔄
46'
T. Iliadis ↔ J. Atanasov
Larisa
🟨
59'
Lazar Rosić
Larisa
VAR
59'
Julián Bartolo
Asteras Tripolis
🟨
61'
Theodoros Venetikidis
Larisa
🟨
61'
Julián Bartolo
Asteras Tripolis
🔄
64'
A. Papageorgiou ↔ D. Olafsson
Larisa
🔄
70'
K. Ketu ↔ Munoz Mumo
Asteras Tripolis
🔄
74'
F. Perez ↔ P. Sisto
Larisa
🔄
78'
F. Macheda ↔ O. M. Chidera
Asteras Tripolis
🔄
83'
G. Pasas ↔ L. Garate
Larisa
🔄
84'
A. Sagal ↔ G. Kakuta
Larisa
🔄
88'
J. Bartolo ↔ N. Kaltsas
Asteras Tripolis
🔄
88'
E. Gonzalez ↔ T. Tzandaris
Asteras Tripolis
🟨
90+3'
Chidera Micheal Okoh
Asteras Tripolis
🟨
90+1'
Oluwatobiloba Alagbe
Asteras Tripolis

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 38.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
38.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
-
Correct Score 1-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Larisa Win 29.1%
Draw 38.5%
Asteras Tripolis Win 32.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Larisa1.12
Asteras Tripolis1.22
Recent Form (Last 5)
Larisa Larisa
WWDLW
28 GF / 50 GA
Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis
WLDWL
32 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
0.88
Average Goals Scored
1
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.47
18
BTTS Yes
16
12
Over 2.5
16
3.78
Shots on Goal
3.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Larisa Larisa 32 matches
Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis 32 matches
Larisa Statistic Asteras Tripolis
4 Wins 6
13 Draws 10
15 Losses 16
28 Goals For 32
50 Goals Against 47
0.88 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.47
18 BTTS Yes 16
25 Over 1.5 23
12 Over 2.5 16
6 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 7
10 Failed To Score 13
3.78 Shots On Goal 3.28
11.16 Total Shots 9.53
3.81 Corners 4.44
45.8% Ball Possession 44.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Asteras Tripolis. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Larisa have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Larisa expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Asteras Tripolis in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Asteras Tripolis having the stronger overall control.

Larisa Analysis

Larisa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 25 points from 32 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 13 draws, and 15 defeats with a 28:50 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Ángelo Sagal (6 goals), Ľubomír Tupta (5 goals), G. Pasas (4 goals), with creative support from Ľubomír Tupta (2 assists), Savvas Mourgos (2 assists), L. Garate (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Asteras Tripolis Analysis

Placed 5 with 28 points from 32 outings, Asteras Tripolis continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 16 losses with goals at 32:47 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Bartolo (11 goals), F. Macheda (6 goals), K. Ketu (3 goals), with creative support from K. Ketu (5 assists), F. Macheda (2 assists), J. Bartolo (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Larisa won 3 times, Asteras Tripolis won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:28 from Larisa's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.27 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (70.9%)
Predicted formations: Larisa 4-1-4-1 / Asteras Tripolis 3-4-3
H2H summary: Larisa wins 3, draws 5, Asteras Tripolis wins 7
Stats
Larisa Larisa
Asteras Tripolis Asteras Tripolis
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
9
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 4
12 Fouls 14
0 Offsides 1
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Goal 3
4 Shots off Goal 4
9 Blocked Shots 2
9 Shots insidebox 5
8 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 3
458 Total passes 283
379 Passes accurate 201
0.80 expected_goals 0.83
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Larisa
Formation
Asteras Tripolis
T. Venetikidis
T. Venetikidis
E. Ferigra
E. Ferigra
L. Rosic
L. Rosic
D. Batubinsika
D. Batubinsika
T. Iliadis
T. Iliadis
A. Papageorgiou
A. Papageorgiou
A. Sagal
🎯
A. Sagal
F. Perez
F. Perez
G. Naor
G. Naor
L. Tupta
L. Tupta
G. Pasas
G. Pasas
N. Papadopoulos
N. Papadopoulos
N. Sipcic
N. Sipcic
K. Triantafyllopoulos
K. Triantafyllopoulos
O. Alagbe
O. Alagbe
N. Alho
N. Alho
E. Gonzalez
E. Gonzalez
C. Almyras
🎯
C. Almyras
P. Deligiannidis
P. Deligiannidis
J. Bartolo
J. Bartolo
F. Macheda
F. Macheda
K. Ketu
K. Ketu
Larisa 5-4-1
Starting XI
21
T. Venetikidis
🟨 61'
G
14
E. Ferigra
D
33
L. Rosic
🟨 59'
D
28
D. Batubinsika
D
4
T. Iliadis
↓ 46'
D
22
A. Papageorgiou
↓ 64'
D
25
A. Sagal
🎯 38' ↓ 84'
M
8
F. Perez
↓ 74'
M
15
G. Naor
🟨 2'
M
29
L. Tupta
M
19
G. Pasas
⚽ 38' ↓ 83'
F
Substitutes
1
N. Melissas
G
23
L. Garate
↑ 83'
F
31
J. Atanasov
↑ 46'
M
18
Z. Chatzistravos
M
5
G. Kakuta
↑ 84'
M
77
P. Sisto
↑ 74'
F
6
E. Pantelakis
D
20
D. Olafsson
↑ 64'
D
7
J. Ngoy
F
26
P. Staikos
M
10
L. Andrada
M
3
K. Grozos
D
Asteras Tripolis 3-4-3
Starting XI
1
N. Papadopoulos
G
3
N. Sipcic
D
13
K. Triantafyllopoulos
🟨 23'
D
69
O. Alagbe
17
N. Alho
🟨 34'
M
10
E. Gonzalez
↓ 88'
M
68
C. Almyras
🎯 19'
M
64
P. Deligiannidis
M
7
J. Bartolo
↓ 88' 🟨 61'
F
41
F. Macheda
⚽ 19' ↓ 78'
F
40
K. Ketu
↓ 70'
Substitutes
61
V. Chatziemmanouil
G
55
V. Archontakakis
G
20
N. Kaltsas
↑ 88'
F
32
J. Mendieta
M
27
A. Tereziou
D
74
D. Laskaris
D
99
D. Grammenos
M
80
B. Perez
8
T. Tzandaris
↑ 88'
M
22
Munoz Mumo
↑ 70'
M
96
A. Simoni
F
26
O. M. Chidera
↑ 78' 🟨 90+3'
F
Last matches: Larisa
21.05.26
Sup
Larisa
Kifisia
2
3
L
16.05.26
Sup
Larisa
Atromitos
2
1
W
12.05.26
Sup
Larisa
Panetolikos
1
1
D
02.05.26
Sup
Larisa
Panserraikos
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Larisa
Panserraikos
0
1
L
22.04.26
Sup
Larisa
Kifisia
1
1
D
18.04.26
Sup
Larisa
Atromitos
2
3
L
08.04.26
Sup
Larisa
Panetolikos
1
2
L
04.04.26
Sup
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
3
L
22.03.26
Sup
Larisa
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
0
D
14.03.26
Sup
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D
07.03.26
Sup
Larisa
AEK Athens FC
0
1
L
28.02.26
Sup
Larisa
OFI
0
3
L
22.02.26
Sup
Larisa
PAOK
1
1
D
15.02.26
Sup
Larisa
Panathinaikos
1
1
D
07.02.26
Sup
Larisa
Panetolikos
1
4
L
31.01.26
Sup
Larisa
Volos NFC
2
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Larisa
Panserraikos
1
0
W
18.01.26
Sup
Larisa
Aris Thessalonikis
1
0
W
10.01.26
Sup
Larisa
Kifisia
1
1
D
Last matches: Asteras Tripolis
21.05.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
2
1
W
16.05.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Kifisia
0
0
D
12.05.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panserraikos
1
0
W
02.05.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Atromitos
4
2
W
26.04.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Atromitos
1
2
L
22.04.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
2
1
W
18.04.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Kifisia
0
0
D
08.04.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panserraikos
0
0
D
04.04.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
3
1
W
22.03.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panathinaikos
1
2
L
14.03.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
1
1
D
08.03.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panserraikos
0
1
L
01.03.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
PAOK
0
2
L
21.02.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Atromitos
1
2
L
14.02.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
1
3
L
07.02.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Volos NFC
2
0
W
04.02.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
3
L
01.02.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Levadiakos
1
3
L
24.01.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
AEK Athens FC
0
1
L
11.01.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
OFI
0
4
L
H2H: Larisa vs Asteras Tripolis
09.05.26
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D
04.04.26
H2H
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
3
1
L
14.03.26
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D
14.09.25
H2H
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
2
2
D
23.01.21
H2H
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
1
0
L
18.10.20
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
3
L
07.06.20
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
2
L
01.03.20
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
3
0
W
08.12.19
H2H
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
1
1
D
30.03.19
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
2
1
W
23.01.19
H2H
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
5
3
L
09.01.19
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
3
2
W
24.11.18
H2H
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
2
0
L
14.01.18
H2H
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
3
1
L
28.08.17
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D
Last matches: Larisa
16.05.26
Sup
Larisa
Atromitos
2
1
W
26.04.26
Sup
Larisa
Panserraikos
0
1
L
22.04.26
Sup
Larisa
Kifisia
1
1
D
08.04.26
Sup
Larisa
Panetolikos
1
2
L
14.03.26
Sup
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D
22.02.26
Sup
Larisa
PAOK
1
1
D
07.02.26
Sup
Larisa
Panetolikos
1
4
L
24.01.26
Sup
Larisa
Panserraikos
1
0
W
18.01.26
Sup
Larisa
Aris Thessalonikis
1
0
W
21.12.25
Sup
Larisa
Atromitos
0
0
D
07.12.25
Sup
Larisa
Panathinaikos
2
2
D
24.11.25
Sup
Larisa
OFI
1
2
L
02.11.25
Sup
Larisa
Levadiakos
0
2
L
18.10.25
Sup
Larisa
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
2
L
04.10.25
Sup
Larisa
Volos NFC
2
5
L
21.09.25
Sup
Larisa
AEK Athens FC
1
1
D
30.08.25
Sup
Larisa
Kifisia
1
1
D
H2H at home: Larisa
09.05.26
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D
14.03.26
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D
18.10.20
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
3
L
07.06.20
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
2
L
01.03.20
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
3
0
W
30.03.19
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
2
1
W
09.01.19
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
3
2
W
28.08.17
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D
Last matches: Asteras Tripolis
21.05.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
2
1
W
26.04.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Atromitos
1
2
L
18.04.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Kifisia
0
0
D
08.04.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panserraikos
0
0
D
14.03.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
1
1
D
01.03.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
PAOK
0
2
L
14.02.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
1
3
L
01.02.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Levadiakos
1
3
L
11.01.26
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
OFI
0
4
L
13.12.25
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Kifisia
0
0
D
30.11.25
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Atromitos
1
0
W
09.11.25
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Aris Thessalonikis
0
0
D
26.10.25
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panathinaikos
0
2
L
04.10.25
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Panserraikos
1
2
L
20.09.25
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Volos NFC
1
2
L
31.08.25
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
AEK Athens FC
0
1
L
23.08.25
Sup
Asteras Tripolis
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
2
L
H2H away: Asteras Tripolis
09.05.26
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D
14.03.26
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D
18.10.20
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
3
W
07.06.20
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
2
W
01.03.20
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
3
0
L
30.03.19
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
2
1
L
09.01.19
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
3
2
L
28.08.17
H2H
Larisa
Asteras Tripolis
1
1
D

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 18 6 2 49:17 32 60
D D W D W
2 26 17 7 2 45:11 34 58
D W D L W
3 26 17 6 3 52:17 35 57
D D D W L
4 26 14 7 5 44:26 18 49
D L L D L
5 26 12 6 8 51:37 14 42
L W W W L
6 26 10 2 14 34:45 -11 32
W L L L W
7 26 9 4 13 26:38 -12 31
L L L L L
8 26 6 12 8 20:27 -7 30
W W W W W
9 26 7 8 11 26:30 -4 29
W L W L L
10 26 6 9 11 32:42 -10 27
W D L W W
11 26 7 5 14 24:38 -14 26
L D D W L
12 26 4 11 11 22:39 -17 23
L W D D D
13 26 4 5 17 16:55 -39 17
L D L L D
14 26 3 8 15 22:41 -19 17
W D W D W
Championship round
Qualifying round
Relegation Round