FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Lahden Stadion
Referee: O. Reitala
Lahti
Match Timeline
Mariehamn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
Martim Augusto · Assist: C. Montiel
Lahti
🔄
46'
M. Hyvonen ↔ N. Dosis
Mariehamn
🔄
46'
A. Lundberg ↔ L. Andersson
Mariehamn
🔄
67'
Martim Augusto ↔ D. Heikkinen
Lahti
🟨
70'
Romaric Yapi
Lahti
71'
S. Dahlstrom
Mariehamn
🟨
73'
Romain Sans
Lahti
🔄
74'
E. Andersson ↔ O. Koskinen
Lahti
🔄
78'
R. Yapi ↔ J. Lehtonen
Lahti
🔄
78'
A. Huttunen ↔ J. Heyden
Mariehamn
🔄
78'
S. Dahlstrom ↔ L. Pearce
Mariehamn
🟨
83'
Tuomas Koivisto
Mariehamn
🟨
89'
Yohan Cassubie
Lahti
🔄
90+3'
S. Ngulube ↔ A. Soiniemi
Mariehamn

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lahti Win 100%
Draw 0%
Mariehamn Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lahti1.36
Mariehamn1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lahti Lahti
WWDLW
11 GF / 11 GA
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WLDWL
8 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
0.89
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.56
6
BTTS Yes
5
4
Over 2.5
3
1.6
Shots on Goal
1.8

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lahti Lahti 9 matches
Mariehamn Mariehamn 9 matches
Lahti Statistic Mariehamn
3 Wins 1
3 Draws 4
3 Losses 4
11 Goals For 8
11 Goals Against 14
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 0.89
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.56
6 BTTS Yes 5
7 Over 1.5 7
4 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 4
1.6 Shots On Goal 1.8
5.4 Total Shots 4.6
2.4 Corners 1
29.8% Ball Possession 19.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mariehamn. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Lahti arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 7 with 6 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 2, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lahti expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Mariehamn in 4-3-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Lahti Analysis

Lahti sit 7 with 6 points after 5 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 4:6, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through M. Sarr (2 goals), Martim Ferreira (1 goals), Neemias Barbosa (1 goals), with creative support from R. Sans (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 2 points from 5 matches. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 3:8 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Larsson (1 goals), Emmanuel Patut (1 goals), S. Dahlstrom (1 goals), with creative support from Emmanuel Patut (1 assists), T. Koivisto (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lahti won 6 times, Mariehamn won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:19 from Lahti's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
Predicted formations: Lahti 4-3-3 / Mariehamn 4-3-1-2
H2H summary: Lahti wins 6, draws 5, Mariehamn wins 4
Stats
Lahti Lahti
Mariehamn Mariehamn
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
0
6 Corner Kicks 6
12 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 3
60% Ball Possession 40%
14 Total Shots 2
5 Shots on Goal 1
5 Shots off Goal 1
4 Blocked Shots 0
10 Shots insidebox 2
4 Shots outsidebox 0
0 Goalkeeper Saves 4
459 Total passes 300
390 Passes accurate 209
1.99 expected_goals 1.03
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lahti
Formation
Mariehamn
O. Maukonen
O. Maukonen
R. Yapi
R. Yapi
N. Gianini Dantas
N. Gianini Dantas
J. Muller
J. Muller
R. Sans
R. Sans
C. Montiel
🎯
C. Montiel
Y. Cassubie
Y. Cassubie
E. Andersson
E. Andersson
M. Sarr
M. Sarr
A. Lindholm
A. Lindholm
Martim Augusto
Martim Augusto
M. Riikonen
M. Riikonen
Y. Amankwah
Y. Amankwah
T. Koivisto
T. Koivisto
P. Lindgren
P. Lindgren
S. Ngulube
S. Ngulube
A. Huttunen
A. Huttunen
N. Nurmi
N. Nurmi
E. Patut
E. Patut
M. Hyvonen
M. Hyvonen
A. Lundberg
A. Lundberg
S. Dahlstrom
S. Dahlstrom
Lahti 4-3-3
Starting XI
31
O. Maukonen
G
27
R. Yapi
↓ 78' 🟨 70'
D
5
N. Gianini Dantas
D
4
J. Muller
D
3
R. Sans
🟨 73'
D
8
C. Montiel
🎯 20'
M
18
Y. Cassubie
🟨 89'
M
14
E. Andersson
↓ 74'
M
77
M. Sarr
F
9
A. Lindholm
F
11
Martim Augusto
⚽ 20' ↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
13
V. Ratto
G
2
J. Lehtonen
↑ 78'
D
10
O. Koskinen
↑ 74'
M
17
A. Belabid
F
28
A. Kabashi
M
6
V. Vehkonen
D
7
D. Heikkinen
↑ 67'
F
25
T. Inkinen
D
44
L. Jarvinen
F
Mariehamn 4-4-2
Starting XI
32
M. Riikonen
G
38
Y. Amankwah
D
5
T. Koivisto
🟨 83'
D
4
P. Lindgren
D
31
S. Ngulube
↓ 90+3'
D
16
A. Huttunen
↓ 78'
M
2
N. Nurmi
M
20
E. Patut
M
64
M. Hyvonen
↓ 46'
M
21
A. Lundberg
↓ 46'
F
10
S. Dahlstrom
⚽ 71' ↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
1
K. Lund
G
8
J. Heyden
↑ 78'
M
6
N. Dosis
↑ 46'
M
43
L. Andersson
↑ 46'
F
11
L. Pearce
↑ 78'
F
3
A. Soiniemi
↑ 90+3'
M
Last matches: Lahti
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
Last matches: Mariehamn
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H: Lahti vs Mariehamn
26.05.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
1
W
10.05.26
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
05.03.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
4
0
L
19.09.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
2
1
W
18.08.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
12.05.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
3
0
W
23.02.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
08.10.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
23.07.23
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
0
2
L
16.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
2
3
W
19.02.23
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
W
18.09.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
6
0
L
26.08.22
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
0
2
L
02.04.22
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
0
D
27.10.21
H2H
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
3
W
Last matches: Lahti
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
H2H at home: Lahti
10.05.26
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
19.09.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
2
1
W
12.05.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
3
0
W
23.02.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
23.07.23
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
0
2
L
26.08.22
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
0
2
L
Last matches: Mariehamn
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
H2H away: Mariehamn
10.05.26
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
19.09.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
2
1
L
12.05.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
3
0
L
23.02.24
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
23.07.23
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
0
2
W
26.08.22
H2H
Lahti
Mariehamn
0
2
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 5 1 20:11 9 26
D D D W W
2 12 8 1 3 18:9 9 25
W D W W W
3 13 6 6 1 19:12 7 24
W D D W W
4 12 5 4 3 21:13 8 19
D W W L D
5 11 5 2 4 17:15 2 17
W W W L W
6 11 4 5 2 11:9 2 17
W D L W D
7 11 4 3 4 12:11 1 15
L L W L L
8 12 4 3 5 19:21 -2 15
W W L W L
9
Lahti Home
11 3 2 6 14:14 0 11
L L W L D
10 11 2 3 6 12:18 -6 9
L W L L L
11 12 1 4 7 10:27 -17 7
L L L W L
12 11 0 4 7 6:19 -13 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)