FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
16.08.2026 14:00
Lahden Stadion
Referee: P. Simani
Lahti
Match Timeline
KuPS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
O. Koskinen · Assist: M. Sarr
Lahti
11'
T. Jyry · Assist: B. Armah
KuPS
17'
J. Luyeye-Lutumba · Assist: B. Armah
KuPS
🟨
51'
José Müller
Lahti
🔄
66'
B. Armah ↔ S. Touray
KuPS
🔄
66'
C. Antwi ↔ G. Engvall
KuPS
🔄
69'
J. Muller ↔ V. Vehkonen
Lahti
🔄
69'
O. Koskinen ↔ D. Heikkinen
Lahti
🔄
69'
Martim Augusto ↔ A. Belabid
Lahti
🔄
70'
T. Jyry ↔ P. Pennanen
KuPS
🔄
70'
P. Parzyszek ↔ J. J. Moreno Ciorciari
KuPS
🟨
72'
Valentín Gasc
KuPS
🟨
81'
Romain Sans
Lahti
🔄
81'
Neemias ↔ A. Lindholm
Lahti
🔄
81'
R. Yapi ↔ J. Ojanen
Lahti
🔄
87'
S. Heiskanen ↔ B. Magassa
KuPS
🟨
89'
Yohan Cassubie
Lahti

Lahti vs KuPS Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 53.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 53.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
53.9%
-
BTTS Yes
53.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
19.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lahti Win 35%
Draw 11.1%
KuPS Win 53.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lahti1.13
KuPS1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lahti Lahti
WWDLW
29 GF / 21 GA
KuPS KuPS
WLDWL
43 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.26
Average Goals Scored
1.54
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
0.93
11
BTTS Yes
15
7
Over 2.5
10
2.16
Shots on Goal
2.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lahti Lahti 23 matches
KuPS KuPS 28 matches
Lahti Statistic KuPS
8 Wins 14
8 Draws 9
7 Losses 5
29 Goals For 43
21 Goals Against 26
1.26 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 0.93
11 BTTS Yes 15
16 Over 1.5 22
7 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 6
8 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 5
2.16 Shots On Goal 2.2
6.47 Total Shots 5.24
2.68 Corners 2.12
29.6% Ball Possession 22.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring KuPS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. KuPS carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 39 points while Lahti sit 7 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lahti expected to line up in 4-3-3 and KuPS in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward KuPS having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Lahti Analysis

Lahti sit 7 with 25 points after 18 league matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 22:16 reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking weight is carried by Martim Ferreira (1 goals), Tòfol Montiel (1 goals), Y. Cassubie (1 goals), with creative support from Martim Ferreira (1 assists), Tòfol Montiel (1 assists), R. Sans (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

KuPS Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 39 points from 18 games, KuPS bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 11 wins, 6 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 33:16, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by J. Luyeye-Lutumba (2 goals), G. Engvall (1 goals), with creative support from J. Luyeye-Lutumba (1 assists), G. Engvall (1 assists), C. Antwi (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lahti won 0 times, KuPS won 14 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:32 from Lahti's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
Predicted formations: Lahti 4-3-3 / KuPS 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Lahti wins 0, draws 1, KuPS wins 14

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
KuPS Away
22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L L W D W
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W D W D W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W L W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W W D L
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
D W L L W
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L W L W L
7
Lahti Home
22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W W L D W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
D D W D W
9 22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
L L L W L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
D L L D W
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
L L L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
W W W L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)