FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Lahden Stadion
Referee: D. Antamo
Lahti
Match Timeline
HJK Helsinki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
43'
O. Koskinen · Assist: M. Sarr
Lahti
🟨
47'
C. Montiel
Lahti
🟨
48'
N. Gianini Dantas
Lahti
🔄
59'
A. Cicale ↔ T. Pukki
HJK Helsinki
🔄
59'
J. Kallinen ↔ M. Kirilov
HJK Helsinki
🔄
59'
S. Haarala ↔ A. Ring
HJK Helsinki
🔄
68'
O. Koskinen ↔ E. Andersson
Lahti
🔄
71'
L. Moller ↔ L. Lappalainen
HJK Helsinki
🟨
74'
R. Yapi
Lahti
75'
Neemias · Assist: Y. Cassubie
Lahti
🔄
77'
Martim Augusto ↔ A. Belabid
Lahti
🔄
79'
L. Lingman ↔ P. Mentu
HJK Helsinki
🔄
84'
Neemias ↔ A. Lindholm
Lahti
🔄
84'
M. Sarr ↔ V. Vehkonen
Lahti
🔄
85'
R. Yapi ↔ J. Lehtonen
Lahti
🟨
90+5'
G. Pereira
Lahti

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.1%
Odds 1.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.66
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.1%
1.25
BTTS Yes
71%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.66
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
2.77
HT / FT Home / Home
-
5.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Lahti Win 34.4%
Draw 14.9%
HJK Helsinki Win 50.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lahti1.28
HJK Helsinki1.51
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lahti Lahti
WWDLW
23 GF / 20 GA
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki
WLDWL
32 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.28
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
11
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
11
1.5
Shots on Goal
1.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lahti Lahti 18 matches
HJK Helsinki HJK Helsinki 18 matches
Lahti Statistic HJK Helsinki
5 Wins 8
7 Draws 4
6 Losses 6
23 Goals For 32
20 Goals Against 23
1.28 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
11 BTTS Yes 8
13 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 3
1.5 Shots On Goal 1.79
4.71 Total Shots 5
2.14 Corners 1.71
27.5% Ball Possession 23.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by HJK Helsinki's more proactive style and Lahti's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. HJK Helsinki carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 22 points while Lahti sit 9 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors HJK Helsinki. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lahti expected to line up in 4-3-3 and HJK Helsinki in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward HJK Helsinki having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Lahti Analysis

So far, Lahti have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 13 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 15:15 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Tòfol Montiel (1 goals), Martim Ferreira (1 goals), with creative support from Tòfol Montiel (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

HJK Helsinki Analysis

HJK Helsinki approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 22 points after 14 outings. The return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 4 defeats, together with goals at 25:17, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Brooklyn Lyons-Foster (1 goals), M. Borchers (1 goals), with creative support from T. Pukki (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lahti won 6 times, HJK Helsinki won 8 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:22 from Lahti's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.1%)
Predicted formations: Lahti 4-3-3 / HJK Helsinki 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Lahti wins 6, draws 1, HJK Helsinki wins 8

Lineups

Lahti
Formation
HJK Helsinki
Osku Maukonen
Osku Maukonen
Romaric Yapi
Romaric Yapi
Nicolas Gianini Dantas
Nicolas Gianini Dantas
José Müller
José Müller
Romain Sans
Romain Sans
Tòfol Montiel
Tòfol Montiel
Yohan Cassubie
🎯
Yohan Cassubie
Otso Koskinen
Otso Koskinen
Momodou Sarr
🎯
Momodou Sarr
Neemias Barbosa
Neemias Barbosa
Martim Ferreira
Martim Ferreira
Jesse Öst
Jesse Öst
Miska Ylitolva
Miska Ylitolva
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
Till Cissokho
Till Cissokho
Leonel Montano
Leonel Montano
Lucas Lingman
Lucas Lingman
Santeri Haarala
Santeri Haarala
Liam Möller
Liam Möller
Jere Kallinen
Jere Kallinen
Alfie Cicale
Alfie Cicale
Mads Borchers
Mads Borchers
Lahti 4-3-3
Starting XI
31
Osku Maukonen
G
27
Romaric Yapi
↓ 85' 🟨 74'
D
5
Nicolas Gianini Dantas
🟨 48'
D
4
José Müller
D
3
Romain Sans
D
8
Tòfol Montiel
🟨 47'
M
18
Yohan Cassubie
🎯 75'
M
10
Otso Koskinen
⚽ 43' ↓ 68'
M
77
Momodou Sarr
🎯 43' ↓ 84'
F
19
Neemias Barbosa
⚽ 75' ↓ 84'
F
11
Martim Ferreira
↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
14
Erik Andersson
↑ 68'
M
17
Amir Belabid
↑ 77'
F
2
Joel Lehtonen
↑ 85'
D
6
Väinö Vehkonen
↑ 84'
D
9
Aaron Lindholm
↑ 84'
F
12
Aatu Hakala
G
7
Daniel Heikkinen
M
20
Justus Ojanen
M
28
Armend Kabashi
M
HJK Helsinki 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
Jesse Öst
G
28
Miska Ylitolva
D
2
Brooklyn Lyons-Foster
D
3
Till Cissokho
D
14
Leonel Montano
D
10
Lucas Lingman
↓ 79'
M
29
Santeri Haarala
↓ 59'
F
22
Liam Möller
↓ 71'
M
15
Jere Kallinen
↓ 59'
M
7
Alfie Cicale
↓ 59'
M
9
Mads Borchers
F
Substitutes
17
Martin Kirilov
↑ 59'
M
4
Alexander Ring
↑ 59'
M
20
Teemu Pukki
↑ 59'
F
26
Lassi Lappalainen
↑ 71'
M
8
Pyry Mentu
↑ 79'
M
12
Mitja Haapanen
G
13
Kaius Simojoki
D
31
Mihailo Bogićević
D
32
Mouhamed Gueye
M
Last matches: Lahti
04.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
1
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
0
0
D
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
27.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
0
4
L
23.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
4
0
W
17.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
3
3
D
13.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
5
2
W
30.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
1
0
W
22.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Ilves
2
2
D
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
04.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
W
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
11.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
SJK
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
21.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
SJK
1
0
W
10.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
13.02.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Hammarby FF
1
2
L
31.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
2
2
D
24.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
H2H: Lahti vs HJK Helsinki
11.07.26
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
W
04.05.26
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
L
24.01.26
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
W
03.08.24
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
11.04.24
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
4
0
L
27.02.24
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
3
0
W
08.07.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
0
1
W
07.06.23
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
08.02.23
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
5
2
L
17.05.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
3
2
L
12.05.22
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
19.03.22
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
0
L
23.08.21
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
17.05.21
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
2
0
L
17.04.21
H2H
HJK Helsinki
Lahti
1
2
W
Last matches: Lahti
04.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
1
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
0
0
D
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
H2H at home: Lahti
11.07.26
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
W
24.01.26
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
W
03.08.24
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
27.02.24
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
3
0
W
07.06.23
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
12.05.22
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
23.08.21
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
Last matches: HJK Helsinki
23.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Mariehamn
4
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
FF Jaro
5
2
W
22.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
VPS
1
2
L
08.05.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Turku PS
0
1
L
29.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Inter Turku
1
1
D
26.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
KuPS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
3
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
HJK Helsinki
Djurgardens IF
2
4
L
24.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
Arda Kardzhali
0
0
D
10.07.25
UEF
HJK Helsinki
NSI Runavik
0
4
L
H2H away: HJK Helsinki
11.07.26
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
L
24.01.26
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
L
03.08.24
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
1
L
27.02.24
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
3
0
L
07.06.23
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
1
2
W
12.05.22
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
23.08.21
H2H
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.14
Draw 3.94
Home 3.19
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.72
Draw 2.48
Home 3.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.19
Over 2.25 1.47
Over 2.5 1.66
Over 2.75 1.83
Over 3.0 2.07
Over 3.25 2.36
Over 3.5 2.63
Over 4.5 4.75
Under 1.5 4.93
Under 2.25 2.82
Under 2.5 2.33
Under 2.75 2.08
Under 3.0 1.81
Under 3.25 1.63
Under 3.5 1.51
Under 4.5 1.20
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.05
Draw 3.60
Home 2.90
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.38
Home 3.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.40
Draw 2.62
Home 3.10
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.67
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 5.00
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 15.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.15
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.06
Draw 3.74
Home 3.18
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.56
Draw 2.30
Home 3.71
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.35
Draw 2.68
Home 3.37
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 1.0 1.01
Over 1.25 1.06
Over 1.5 1.13
Over 1.75 1.16
Over 2.0 1.21
Over 2.25 1.38
Over 2.5 1.55
Over 2.75 1.71
Over 3.0 1.93
Over 3.25 2.16
Over 3.5 2.53
Over 3.75 2.88
Over 4.0 3.68
Over 4.25 4.04
Over 4.5 4.40
Over 4.75 5.50
Over 5.0 7.80
Over 5.25 8.10
Over 5.5 8.50
Over 6.5 21.00
Over 7.5 41.00
Under 0.5 13.20
Under 1.0 9.70
Under 1.25 6.25
Under 1.5 4.50
Under 1.75 4.04
Under 2.0 3.58
Under 2.25 2.63
Under 2.5 2.19
Under 2.75 1.98
Under 3.0 1.75
Under 3.25 1.57
Under 3.5 1.50
Under 3.75 1.34
Under 4.0 1.22
Under 4.25 1.17
Under 4.5 1.14
Under 4.75 1.08
Under 5.0 1.02
Under 5.25 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.04
Draw 3.50
Home 3.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.55
Draw 2.32
Home 3.50
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.35
Draw 2.70
Home 3.30
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.19
Over 2.0 1.29
Over 2.25 1.48
Over 2.5 1.66
Over 2.75 1.83
Over 3.0 2.10
Over 3.25 2.38
Over 3.5 2.63
Over 3.75 3.15
Over 4.0 4.00
Over 4.25 4.35
Over 4.5 4.70
Over 4.75 5.75
Over 5.0 8.00
Under 1.5 4.00
Under 2.0 3.20
Under 2.25 2.43
Under 2.5 2.06
Under 2.75 1.85
Under 3.0 1.64
Under 3.25 1.50
Under 3.5 1.41
Under 3.75 1.30
Under 4.0 1.19
Under 4.25 1.17
Under 4.5 1.15
Under 4.75 1.10
Under 5.0 1.05

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 6 1 27:15 12 30
W W W D D
2 15 8 6 1 23:12 11 30
W D D D D
3 15 7 6 2 22:11 11 27
W W D W W
4 15 8 2 5 20:18 2 26
L D L W D
5 15 6 4 5 25:19 6 22
L L W D W
6 15 6 4 5 23:20 3 22
W L D D W
7 15 6 4 5 19:16 3 22
W L W D L
8
Lahti Home
15 5 4 6 18:15 3 19
W W D D L
9 15 4 4 7 25:29 -4 16
L D L W W
10 15 3 5 7 18:23 -5 14
L W D D L
11 15 2 5 8 15:32 -17 11
W L D L L
12 15 0 4 11 8:33 -25 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)