FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Lahden Stadion
Referee: P. Simani
Lahti
Match Timeline
Gnistan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
Marcelo Costa ↔ J. Ojala
Gnistan
🔄
46'
E. Arko-Mensah ↔ J. Latonen
Gnistan
🔄
46'
D. Perez ↔ B. Dahlstrom
Gnistan
54'
Neemias · Assist: R. Yapi
Lahti
🔄
63'
O. Hannula ↔ A. Atarah
Gnistan
🟨
66'
R. Sans
Lahti
🔄
67'
O. Koskinen ↔ E. Andersson
Lahti
🔄
67'
Neemias ↔ A. Belabid
Lahti
🟨
69'
J. Latonen
Gnistan
🔄
71'
S. Ylatupa ↔ R. Eremenko
Gnistan
🔄
85'
R. Yapi ↔ A. Kabashi
Lahti
🔄
85'
Martim Augusto ↔ D. Heikkinen
Lahti
🔄
86'
C. Montiel ↔ V. Vehkonen
Lahti
🟨
89'
D. Heikkinen
Lahti
90+2'
E. Andersson · Assist: E. Andersson
Lahti

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.7%
-
BTTS Yes
71%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lahti Win 40.2%
Draw 17.4%
Gnistan Win 42.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lahti1.34
Gnistan1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lahti Lahti
WWDLW
22 GF / 20 GA
Gnistan Gnistan
WLDWL
24 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
11
BTTS Yes
9
7
Over 2.5
8
2
Shots on Goal
4.08

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lahti Lahti 17 matches
Gnistan Gnistan 19 matches
Lahti Statistic Gnistan
4 Wins 6
7 Draws 5
6 Losses 8
22 Goals For 24
20 Goals Against 27
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
11 BTTS Yes 9
13 Over 1.5 16
7 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 5
2 Shots On Goal 4.08
6.62 Total Shots 11.46
2.77 Corners 3.46
33.5% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Gnistan's more proactive style and Lahti's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gnistan. Lahti have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lahti expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Gnistan in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gnistan having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Lahti Analysis

Lahti sit 9 with 12 points after 12 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 6 defeats with a 14:14 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Tòfol Montiel (1 goals), Martim Ferreira (1 goals), with creative support from Tòfol Montiel (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gnistan Analysis

Gnistan sit 6 with 18 points after 12 league matches. The record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 18:16 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Lahti won 4 times, Gnistan won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:18 from Lahti's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.64 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.7%)
Predicted formations: Lahti 4-3-3 / Gnistan 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Lahti wins 4, draws 5, Gnistan wins 2
Stats
Lahti Lahti
Gnistan Gnistan
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
8
Blocked Shots
3
10 Corner Kicks 3
10 Fouls 15
2 Offsides 1
60% Ball Possession 40%
21 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Goal 1
7 Shots off Goal 4
8 Blocked Shots 3
15 Shots insidebox 6
6 Shots outsidebox 2
1 Goalkeeper Saves 5
448 Total passes 272
354 Passes accurate 166
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lahti
Formation
Gnistan
O. Maukonen
O. Maukonen
R. Yapi
🎯
R. Yapi
N. Gianini Dantas
N. Gianini Dantas
J. Muller
J. Muller
R. Sans
R. Sans
C. Montiel
C. Montiel
Y. Cassubie
Y. Cassubie
O. Koskinen
O. Koskinen
M. Sarr
M. Sarr
Neemias
Neemias
Martim Augusto
Martim Augusto
A. Craninx
A. Craninx
R. Gnanou
R. Gnanou
A. Obileye
A. Obileye
Marcelo Costa
Marcelo Costa
O. Hannula
O. Hannula
G. Europaeus
G. Europaeus
S. Eremenko
S. Eremenko
E. Arko-Mensah
E. Arko-Mensah
S. Ylatupa
S. Ylatupa
D. Perez
D. Perez
A. Akinyemi
A. Akinyemi
Lahti 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
31
O. Maukonen
27
R. Yapi
🎯 54' ↓ 85'
5
N. Gianini Dantas
4
J. Muller
3
R. Sans
🟨 66'
8
C. Montiel
↓ 86'
18
Y. Cassubie
10
O. Koskinen
↓ 67'
77
M. Sarr
19
Neemias
⚽ 54' ↓ 67'
11
Martim Augusto
↓ 85'
Substitutes
12
A. Hakala
14
E. Andersson
⚽ 90+2' 🎯 90+2' ↑ 67'
9
A. Lindholm
20
J. Ojanen
17
A. Belabid
↑ 67'
28
A. Kabashi
↑ 85'
6
V. Vehkonen
↑ 86'
7
D. Heikkinen
↑ 85' 🟨 89'
25
T. Inkinen
Gnistan 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
A. Craninx
24
R. Gnanou
67
A. Obileye
4
Marcelo Costa
↓ 46'
27
O. Hannula
↓ 63'
15
G. Europaeus
14
S. Eremenko
12
E. Arko-Mensah
↓ 46'
23
S. Ylatupa
↓ 71'
11
D. Perez
↓ 46'
17
A. Akinyemi
Substitutes
22
Ramilson
26
R. Eremenko
↑ 71'
40
J. Ojala
↑ 46'
7
A. Atarah
↑ 63'
10
J. Latonen
↑ 46' 🟨 69'
2
B. Dahlstrom
↑ 46'
31
A. Jouhi
50
J. Selenge
Last matches: Lahti
20.07.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
2
0
W
11.07.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
0
0
D
17.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Gnistan
0
1
L
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Lahti
KuPS
1
2
L
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
04.05.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
10.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
1
2
L
04.04.26
Vei
Lahti
FF Jaro
1
0
W
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
Last matches: Gnistan
18.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
2
0
W
11.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
4
2
W
27.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
30.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
SJK
3
2
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
5
0
W
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
05.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Inter Turku
2
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
1
5
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
21.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
PK-35
2
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
SJK
1
3
L
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
H2H: Lahti vs Gnistan
04.07.26
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
1
0
W
17.06.26
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
1
0
L
22.02.26
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
0
0
D
05.10.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
2
2
D
19.06.24
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
3
3
D
02.06.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
2
1
L
30.03.24
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
2
2
D
17.02.24
H2H
Gnistan
Lahti
1
2
W
04.03.22
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
4
2
W
24.04.21
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
4
2
W
13.06.20
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
3
3
D
Last matches: Lahti
11.07.26
Vei
Lahti
HJK Helsinki
2
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
Lahti
Turku PS
0
0
D
13.06.26
Vei
Lahti
SJK
2
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Ilves
5
0
W
18.05.26
Vei
Lahti
VPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Lahti
Mariehamn
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Lahti
AC Oulu
2
1
W
18.04.26
Vei
Lahti
Inter Turku
0
2
L
28.03.26
Fri
Lahti
JIPPO
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Lahti
SJK Akatemia
3
1
W
25.02.26
Fri
Lahti
GrIFK
2
2
D
17.01.26
Fri
Lahti
Haka
1
1
D
H2H at home: Lahti
04.07.26
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
1
0
W
19.06.24
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
3
3
D
30.03.24
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
2
2
D
04.03.22
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
4
2
W
24.04.21
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
4
2
W
13.06.20
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
3
3
D
Last matches: Gnistan
18.07.26
Vei
Gnistan
AC Oulu
2
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
FF Jaro
1
1
D
13.06.26
Vei
Gnistan
Mariehamn
3
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
Ilves
0
2
L
09.05.26
Vei
Gnistan
VPS
1
1
D
24.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
Turku PS
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
Gnistan
KuPS
0
1
L
28.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
Kooteepee
1
1
D
10.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
HJK Helsinki
0
3
L
07.03.26
Fri
Gnistan
JäPS
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Gnistan
Ilves
0
1
L
H2H away: Gnistan
04.07.26
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
1
0
L
19.06.24
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
3
3
D
30.03.24
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
2
2
D
04.03.22
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
4
2
L
24.04.21
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
4
2
L
13.06.20
H2H
Lahti
Gnistan
3
3
D

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 6 1 29:15 14 33
W W W W D
2 16 8 7 1 23:12 11 31
D W D D D
3 16 7 6 3 23:13 10 27
L W W D W
4 16 8 2 6 20:20 0 26
L L D L W
5 16 7 4 5 27:20 7 25
W L L W D
6 16 7 4 5 25:20 5 25
W W L D D
7
Lahti Home
16 6 4 6 20:15 5 22
W W W D D
8 16 6 4 6 20:19 1 22
L W L W D
9 16 5 4 7 28:30 -2 19
W L D L W
10 16 3 5 8 18:25 -7 14
L L W D D
11 16 2 6 8 15:32 -17 12
D W L D L
12 16 0 4 12 8:35 -27 4
L L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)