BRAZIL › SERIE D

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Lagarto

1 - 0

Decisão

Lagarto

Match Timeline

Decisão

0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'

⚽

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 69.6%

Odds 1.45

BTTS

Yes

Probability 82.5%

Odds 1.91

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 58.6%

Odds 1.77

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	69.6%	1.45	▥
BTTS	Yes	82.5%	1.91	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	58.6%	1.77	▥
Corners O/U	Over 7.5 Corners	87.7%	1.09	▥
HT / FT	Home / Home	-	2.25	▥
Correct Score	2-1	-	8.50	▥

Probability Distribution

Lagarto Win 69.6%

Draw 20.9%

Decisão Win 9.5%

Expected Goals (xG)

Lagarto1.5

Decisão1.33

Recent Form (Last 5)

Lagarto

WWDLW

13 GF / 15 GA

Decisão

WLDWL

11 GF / 16 GA

Key Stats

1.44

Average Goals Scored

1.1

1.67

Average Goals Conceded

1.6

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

Shots on Goal

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lagarto 9 matches

Decisão 10 matches

Lagarto	Statistic	Decisão
2	Wins	3
4	Draws	2
3	Losses	5
13	Goals For	11
15	Goals Against	16
1.44	Avg Goals Scored	1.1
1.67	Avg Goals Conceded	1.6
8	BTTS Yes	6
8	Over 1.5	8
5	Over 2.5	5
2	Over 3.5	2
1	Clean Sheets	1
1	Failed To Score	3
0	Shots On Goal	0
0	Total Shots	0
0	Corners	0
0%	Ball Possession	0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Decisão. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Decisão having the stronger overall control. Decisão arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Lagarto Analysis

Lagarto come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 10 points from 9 matches. The record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 13:15 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Rhuann (6 goals), Bruninho (3 goals), Erik Gabriel (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Decisão Analysis

With 8 points from 9 games and a place of 6, Decisão still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 defeats with a 10:16 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Tulio (8 goals), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Lagarto won 1 times, Decisão won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Lagarto's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 1X (90.5%)

H2H summary: Lagarto wins 1, draws 1, Decisão wins 0

Last matches: Lagarto

30.05.26

Ser

Lagarto

Treze

24.05.26

Ser

Lagarto

Retrô

16.05.26

Ser

Lagarto

Sergipe

09.05.26

Ser

Lagarto

Serra Branca

02.05.26

Ser

Lagarto

Serra Branca

25.04.26

Ser

Lagarto

Sergipe

18.04.26

Ser

Lagarto

Retrô

11.04.26

Ser

Lagarto

Treze

05.04.26

Ser

Lagarto

Decisão

10.08.25

Ser

Lagarto

Central SC

03.08.25

Ser

Lagarto

Central SC

27.07.25

Ser

Lagarto

União Carmolandense

19.07.25

Ser

Lagarto

Barcelona BA

12.07.25

Ser

Lagarto

Sergipe

06.07.25

Ser

Lagarto

Penedense

28.06.25

Ser

Lagarto

ASA

16.06.25

Ser

Lagarto

Jequié

11.06.25

Ser

Lagarto

Juazeirense

31.05.25

Ser

Lagarto

Juazeirense

25.05.25

Ser

Lagarto

Jequié

Last matches: Decisão

06.06.26

Ser

Decisão

Treze

31.05.26

Ser

Decisão

Sergipe

24.05.26

Ser

Decisão

Serra Branca

17.05.26

Ser

Decisão

Retrô

10.05.26

Ser

Decisão

Treze

26.04.26

Ser

Decisão

Retrô

18.04.26

Ser

Decisão

Serra Branca

11.04.26

Ser

Decisão

Sergipe

05.04.26

Ser

Decisão

Lagarto

04.01.26

Fri

Decisão

Confiança

H2H: Lagarto vs Decisão

14.06.26

H2H

Lagarto

Decisão

05.04.26

H2H

Decisão

Lagarto

Last matches: Lagarto

16.05.26

Ser

Lagarto

Sergipe

02.05.26

Ser

Lagarto

Serra Branca

18.04.26

Ser

Lagarto

Retrô

11.04.26

Ser

Lagarto

Treze

10.08.25

Ser

Lagarto

Central SC

19.07.25

Ser

Lagarto

Barcelona BA

06.07.25

Ser

Lagarto

Penedense

16.06.25

Ser

Lagarto

Jequié

31.05.25

Ser

Lagarto

Juazeirense

17.05.25

Ser

Lagarto

ASA

03.05.25

Ser

Lagarto

Sergipe

19.04.25

Ser

Lagarto

União Carmolandense

H2H at home: Lagarto

14.06.26

H2H

Lagarto

Decisão

Last matches: Decisão

17.05.26

Ser

Decisão

Retrô

10.05.26

Ser

Decisão

Treze

18.04.26

Ser

Decisão

Serra Branca

11.04.26

Ser

Decisão

Sergipe

H2H away: Decisão

14.06.26

H2H

Lagarto

Decisão

Showing odds from: 1xBet

Main markets

MATCH WINNER

Away 5.95

Draw 3.73

Home 1.45

GOALS OVER/UNDER

Over 1.75 1.28

Over 2.0 1.35

Over 2.25 1.56

Over 2.5 1.77

Over 2.75 1.96

Over 3.0 2.30

Over 3.25 2.59

Under 1.75 3.16

Under 2.0 2.79

Under 2.25 2.24

Under 2.5 1.95

Under 2.75 1.73

Under 3.0 1.52

Under 3.25 1.41

Main markets

MATCH WINNER

Away 5.75

Draw 3.70

Home 1.48

FIRST HALF WINNER

Away 6.00

Draw 2.25

Home 2.00

SECOND HALF WINNER

Away 4.75

Draw 2.60

Home 1.95

GOALS OVER/UNDER

Over 0.5 1.05

Over 1.5 1.25

Over 2.5 1.85

Over 3.5 3.00

Over 4.5 5.50

Over 5.5 9.00

Over 6.5 15.00

Over 7.5 21.00

Under 0.5 8.50

Under 1.5 3.75

Under 2.5 1.95

Under 3.5 1.36

Under 4.5 1.12

Under 5.5 1.04

Under 6.5 1.01

Under 7.5 1.00

Main markets

MATCH WINNER

Away 6.41

Draw 3.84

Home 1.46

FIRST HALF WINNER

Away 6.27

Draw 2.17

Home 2.04

SECOND HALF WINNER

Away 5.73

Draw 2.67

Home 1.78

GOALS OVER/UNDER

Over 0.5 1.02

Over 1.0 1.02

Over 1.5 1.22

Over 1.75 1.27

Over 2.0 1.35

Over 2.25 1.58

Over 2.5 1.77

Over 2.75 1.97

Over 3.0 2.26

Over 3.25 2.52

Over 3.5 2.81

Over 3.75 3.34

Over 4.0 4.45

Over 4.5 5.40

Over 5.5 11.00

Over 6.5 15.00

Over 7.5 21.00

Under 0.5 10.70

Under 1.0 7.90

Under 1.5 3.50

Under 1.75 3.14

Under 2.0 2.74

Under 2.25 2.21

Under 2.5 1.92

Under 2.75 1.73

Under 3.0 1.51

Under 3.25 1.41

Under 3.5 1.33

Under 3.75 1.24

Under 4.0 1.14

Under 4.5 1.10

Under 5.5 1.04

Under 6.5 1.01

Under 7.5 1.00

Main markets

MATCH WINNER

Away 5.75

Draw 3.75

Home 1.49

FIRST HALF WINNER

Away 5.50

Draw 2.33

Home 2.00

SECOND HALF WINNER

Away 5.10

Draw 2.63

Home 1.89

GOALS OVER/UNDER

Over 1.5 1.23

Over 2.5 1.82

Over 3.5 3.10

Under 1.5 3.50

Under 2.5 1.82

Under 3.5 1.29

Standings

Group 6

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Iguatu	10	5	5	0	14:7	7	20	W D D D W
2	Maracanã	10	5	4	1	12:6	6	19	W W W D D
3	Parnahyba	10	4	2	4	11:13	-2	14	W D L L W
4	Sampaio Correa	10	3	4	3	12:6	6	13	L W W W D
5	Moto Club	10	2	3	5	8:15	-7	9	L L L D L
6	IAPE	10	0	4	6	10:20	-10	4	L L D D L

Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)

Group 7

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Ferroviario	10	6	3	1	15:7	8	21	W D W W D
2	Piauí	10	5	2	3	14:11	3	17	W W L W D
3	Fluminense PI	10	3	5	2	12:9	3	14	L D W D L
4	Altos	10	3	2	5	9:15	-6	11	W D L L L
5	WSG Wattens	10	2	4	4	10:10	0	10	L D W D W
6	Uniclinic Atletico Clube	10	1	4	5	6:14	-8	7	L L L L W

Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)

Group 8

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	ABC	10	7	2	1	15:6	9	23	W W D W W
2	America-RN	10	6	3	1	14:3	11	21	W W D W D
3	Maguary PE	10	3	4	3	8:5	3	13	L W D D D
4	Central SC	10	3	4	3	8:7	1	13	W L D D L
5	Sousa	10	3	1	6	4:11	-7	10	L L D L W
6	Laguna	10	0	2	8	3:20	-17	2	L L D L L

Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)

Standings

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Treze	10	5	2	3	18:14	4	17	L D L W W
1	CSA	10	6	3	1	25:8	17	21	W D D W W
1	Uberlandia	10	5	3	2	12:8	4	18	L D D D W
1	Democrata GV	10	5	2	3	13:9	4	17	D W W L L
1	Portuguesa	10	6	3	1	16:6	10	21	W W W D L
1	XV de Piracicaba	10	4	5	1	14:9	5	17	L D D W W
1	Santa Catarina	10	6	1	3	15:9	6	19	W W W W L
1	Blumenau	10	6	1	3	14:8	6	19	L W W L D
2	Sergipe	10	4	3	3	15:13	2	15	D L L D W
2	Juazeirense	10	5	2	3	12:9	3	17	W D D L L
2	Ipatinga	10	4	3	3	12:9	3	15	W L W D D
2	Tombense	10	4	5	1	13:6	7	17	D W D W D
2	Água Santa	10	5	2	3	16:8	8	17	L W W D D
2	Noroeste	10	4	3	3	12:7	5	15	W D L W W
2	Cianorte	10	5	1	4	9:8	1	16	W L D W L
2	Marcílio Dias	10	4	4	2	9:5	4	16	D L D W W
3	Serra Branca	10	3	6	1	12:8	4	15	D D W L D
3	ASA	10	4	4	2	11:7	4	16	D D D W W
3	CRAC	10	3	4	3	7:7	0	13	D L D W D
3	Vitória ES	10	4	3	3	12:8	4	15	D D W D W
3	Portuguesa RJ	10	3	5	2	14:9	5	14	L D D W D
3	Velo Clube	10	3	4	3	10:10	0	13	W L D L D
3	Cascavel	10	4	3	3	9:4	5	15	L D W L W
3	Independiente FSJ	10	3	4	3	3:4	-1	13	D L D L D
4	Lagarto Home	10	3	4	3	14:15	-1	13	W W D D D
4	Jacuipense	10	3	4	3	12:14	-2	13	D D D W W
4	Ivinhema	10	3	4	3	9:12	-3	13	D D L L D
4	Rio Branco ES	10	3	4	3	14:12	2	13	W L L D D
4	América RJ	10	3	3	4	11:21	-10	12	W D L W L
4	Sampaio Corrêa RJ	10	3	3	4	8:10	-2	12	L W D L L
4	São Luiz	10	4	3	3	11:9	2	15	W D L W W
4	Sao Jose	10	3	4	3	6:8	-2	13	W W D D W
5	Retrô	10	3	3	4	13:15	-2	12	W D D W L
5	CSE	10	2	3	5	10:17	-7	9	L D D L L
5	ABECAT Ouvidorense	10	3	3	4	8:9	-1	12	W W W L D
5	Porto BA	10	3	1	6	9:21	-12	10	L L L D L
5	Madureira	10	3	2	5	11:16	-5	11	W L D L W
5	Nova Iguaçu	10	3	3	4	7:10	-3	12	W L W W D
5	Joinville	10	4	3	3	10:8	2	15	L W D L L
5	Brasil DE Pelotas	10	2	4	4	9:12	-3	10	D L D D L
6	Decisão Away	10	2	2	6	10:17	-7	8	L D W L L
6	Atlético Alagoinhas	10	1	2	7	5:20	-15	5	L D D L L
6	Operario Ferroviario	10	2	3	5	9:12	-3	9	L W L W L
6	Real Noroeste	10	1	5	4	6:11	-5	8	D D D D W
6	Pouso Alegre	10	2	1	7	6:14	-8	7	L L L L W
6	CFRJ / Maricá	10	3	2	5	9:14	-5	11	L W D L L
6	Guarany de Bagé	10	1	1	8	2:18	-16	4	L L L L W
6	Azuriz	10	2	3	5	7:11	-4	9	D W L W L

Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)

Group 1

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Manauara	10	6	4	0	13:5	8	22	W W D W D
2	Nacional AM	10	6	2	2	15:9	6	20	W D W L W
3	Sao Raimundo	10	3	4	3	10:7	3	13	L W D L L
4	Monte Roraima	10	2	4	4	11:14	-3	10	L L D W W
5	Manaus FC	10	2	4	4	8:13	-5	10	L D D W L
6	GAS	10	1	2	7	8:17	-9	5	W L L L D

Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)

Group 2

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Guaporé	10	6	4	0	19:9	10	22	D W W D W
2	Porto Velho	10	5	3	2	33:9	24	18	W W D D W
3	Araguaína	10	5	3	2	31:9	22	18	W L D L W
4	Independência	10	4	3	3	17:10	7	15	D W W W L
5	Galvez	10	3	1	6	14:31	-17	10	L L L W L
6	Humaitá	10	0	0	10	4:50	-46	0	L L L L L

Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)

Group 3

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Gama	10	8	2	0	23:6	17	26	D W W W W
2	Luverdense	10	4	3	3	11:10	1	15	W D W L L
3	Brasiliense	10	3	5	2	11:10	1	14	W D W L L
4	Aparecidense	10	3	4	3	13:12	1	13	D D L D W
5	Primavera MG	10	3	3	4	10:13	-3	12	L D L W W
6	Inhumas	10	0	1	9	3:20	-17	1	L L L D L

Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)

Group 4

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Capital Brasilia	10	7	2	1	16:6	10	23	W W D W W
2	Goiatuba EC	10	5	4	1	13:7	6	19	W D D L D
3	Ceilândia	10	3	3	4	9:10	-1	12	D D W L L
4	Mixto	10	2	6	2	10:9	1	12	D D D W L
5	União Rondonópolis	10	2	3	5	11:18	-7	9	L D L W D
6	CEOV Operário	10	1	2	7	7:16	-9	5	L L D L W

Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)

Group 5

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	Trem	10	6	2	2	19:13	6	20	W L W W L
2	Águia de Marabá	10	5	3	2	20:11	9	18	L W W L W
3	Imperatriz	10	4	3	3	15:10	5	15	W W L L W
4	Tuna Luso	10	3	4	3	14:17	-3	13	L W D W L
5	Tocantinópolis	10	3	3	4	18:18	0	12	W L L W W
6	Oratório	10	1	1	8	12:29	-17	4	L L D L L

Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)