ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Referee: M. Pukk
Laagri
Match Timeline
Vaprus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
A. Binate
Laagri
20'
K. Kriis
Laagri
🟨
21'
M. Villota
Vaprus
🟨
32'
E. Kajari
Laagri
🟨
45'
A. Jarve
Laagri
45'
J. Poder · Assist: M. Limberg
Vaprus
🟨
56'
E. Kajari
Laagri
🟥
56'
E. Kajari
Laagri
🔄
63'
M. Kesa ↔ R. Reimaa
Laagri
🔄
63'
A. Binate ↔ R. Sillamaa
Laagri
🔄
63'
K. Eerme ↔ I. Bah
Laagri
🟨
66'
I. Bah
Laagri
🔄
66'
M. Lepik ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🟨
77'
J. Poder
Vaprus
80'
M. Limberg · Assist: M. Villota
Vaprus
🔄
85'
Rudenko Daniil ↔ J. Ndakala
Laagri
🔄
85'
J. Poder ↔ J. Sild
Vaprus
🟨
90'
R. Reimaa
Laagri

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Laagri Win 47.1%
Draw 20%
Vaprus Win 32.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Laagri1.78
Vaprus1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Laagri Laagri
WWDLW
30 GF / 29 GA
Vaprus Vaprus
WLDWL
32 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
10
BTTS Yes
9
12
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Laagri Laagri 18 matches
Vaprus Vaprus 17 matches
Laagri Statistic Vaprus
9 Wins 6
3 Draws 2
6 Losses 9
30 Goals For 32
29 Goals Against 33
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
10 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 15
12 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vaprus having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vaprus.

Laagri Analysis

Laagri come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 16 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, while the 14:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Eerme (3 goals), A. Binate (2 goals), A. Jarve (2 goals), with creative support from Rudenko Daniil (5 assists), K. Eerme (1 assists), A. Binate (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus are currently 8 in the standings with 13 points from 11 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 13:21 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by H. Valja (6 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), K. Aloe (2 goals), with creative support from M. Lepik (2 assists), K. Aloe (1 assists), M. Limberg (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Laagri won 3 times, Vaprus won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:15 from Laagri's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.1%)
H2H summary: Laagri wins 3, draws 3, Vaprus wins 5

Lineups

Laagri
Formation
Vaprus
J. Vainula
J. Vainula
A. Jarve
A. Jarve
E. Kajari
E. Kajari
S. Liit
S. Liit
M. Kesa
M. Kesa
I. Kartau
I. Kartau
M. Kelement
M. Kelement
Rudenko Daniil
Rudenko Daniil
K. Kriis
K. Kriis
K. Eerme
K. Eerme
A. Binate
A. Binate
O. Nomm
O. Nomm
S. Aer
S. Aer
M. Seppik
M. Seppik
M. Lipp
M. Lipp
M. Limberg
🎯
M. Limberg
M. Villota
🎯
M. Villota
H. Valja
H. Valja
K. Aloe
K. Aloe
T. Pajo
T. Pajo
J. Poder
J. Poder
M. Lepik
M. Lepik
Laagri 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
J. Vainula
4
A. Jarve
🟨 45'
41
E. Kajari
🟨 32' 🟨 56' 🟥 56'
15
S. Liit
22
M. Kesa
↓ 63'
5
I. Kartau
17
M. Kelement
23
Rudenko Daniil
↓ 85'
16
K. Kriis
⚽ 20'
9
K. Eerme
↓ 63'
19
A. Binate
↓ 63' 🟨 11'
Substitutes
79
R. Meesit
3
A. Kaevats
6
H. Palutaja
7
R. Reimaa
↑ 63' 🟨 90'
11
A. Kose
13
R. Sillamaa
↑ 63'
18
I. Bah
↑ 63' 🟨 66'
21
S. Soo
32
S. Kerge
47
K. Ennuste
53
J. Ndakala
↑ 85'
Vaprus 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
16
O. Nomm
5
S. Aer
43
M. Seppik
28
M. Lipp
42
M. Limberg
⚽ 80' 🎯 45'
24
M. Villota
🎯 80' 🟨 21'
20
H. Valja
15
K. Aloe
8
T. Pajo
9
J. Poder
⚽ 45' ↓ 85' 🟨 77'
22
M. Lepik
↓ 66'
Substitutes
1
H. Vainu
12
M. Ristimets
7
V. Vallik
↑ 66'
14
R. Orm
19
A. Korre
64
J. Allas
86
R. Roosson
90
J. Sild
↑ 85'
Last matches: Laagri
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
17.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
18.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
07.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
2
1
W
28.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Metta / LU
1
5
L
20.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Mārupe
4
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Riga Mariners
4
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Valmiera / BSS
2
1
W
Last matches: Vaprus
16.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
3
1
W
24.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
6
L
09.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
2
0
W
02.05.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
18.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
07.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Paide
3
2
W
15.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
04.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Metta / LU
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
Kuressaare
9
2
W
24.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
3
L
H2H: Laagri vs Vaprus
16.05.26
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
04.04.26
H2H
Vaprus
Laagri
0
2
W
27.09.25
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
25.07.25
H2H
Vaprus
Laagri
2
2
D
26.04.25
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
0
1
L
05.04.25
H2H
Vaprus
Laagri
1
1
D
27.10.23
H2H
Vaprus
Laagri
0
0
D
02.09.23
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
0
4
L
28.05.23
H2H
Vaprus
Laagri
0
1
W
28.04.23
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
14.01.23
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
2
1
W
Last matches: Laagri
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Mārupe
4
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Riga Mariners
4
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Valmiera / BSS
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Laagri
Tartu Welco
3
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Laagri
PK-35
1
1
D
H2H at home: Laagri
16.05.26
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
27.09.25
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
26.04.25
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
0
1
L
02.09.23
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
0
4
L
28.04.23
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
14.01.23
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
2
1
W
Last matches: Vaprus
13.06.26
Mei
Vaprus
Tammeka
0
0
D
26.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kalju Nomme
2
1
W
21.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Kuressaare
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
Flora Tallinn
0
2
L
08.04.26
Mei
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Trans Narva
1
2
L
14.03.26
Mei
Vaprus
Nõmme United
1
7
L
08.02.26
Fri
Vaprus
Tallinna Kalev
6
0
W
24.01.26
Fri
Vaprus
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
3
L
H2H away: Vaprus
16.05.26
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
W
27.09.25
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
W
26.04.25
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
0
1
W
02.09.23
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
0
4
W
28.04.23
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
W
14.01.23
H2H
Laagri
Vaprus
2
1
L

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 4 0 45:13 32 43
D W W W W
2 16 10 0 6 33:18 15 30
L W L W W
3 17 9 3 5 29:14 15 30
D L D L W
4 17 8 4 5 26:21 5 28
W W D D L
5 16 7 2 7 18:20 -2 23
W W D L W
6 16 6 2 8 20:31 -11 20
L D W L W
7 17 6 1 10 33:40 -7 19
W L W L L
8 17 6 1 10 21:30 -9 19
L L L W L
9 16 5 2 9 17:26 -9 17
D W D W L
10 17 3 1 13 11:40 -29 10
L D L L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga