ESTONIA › MEISTRILIIGA
16.05.2026 14:00
Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Referee: M. Pukk
Laagri
Match Timeline
Vaprus
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
A. Binate
Laagri
⚽
20'
K. Kriis
Laagri
🟨
21'
M. Villota
Vaprus
🟨
32'
E. Kajari
Laagri
🟨
45'
A. Jarve
Laagri
⚽
45'
J. Poder · Assist: M. Limberg
Vaprus
🟨
56'
E. Kajari
Laagri
🟥
56'
E. Kajari
Laagri
🔄
63'
M. Kesa ↔ R. Reimaa
Laagri
🔄
63'
A. Binate ↔ R. Sillamaa
Laagri
🔄
63'
K. Eerme ↔ I. Bah
Laagri
🟨
66'
I. Bah
Laagri
🔄
66'
M. Lepik ↔ V. Vallik
Vaprus
🟨
77'
J. Poder
Vaprus
⚽
80'
M. Limberg · Assist: M. Villota
Vaprus
🔄
85'
Rudenko Daniil ↔ J. Ndakala
Laagri
🔄
85'
J. Poder ↔ J. Sild
Vaprus
🟨
90'
R. Reimaa
Laagri

Laagri vs Vaprus Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Laagri Win 47.1%
Draw 20%
Vaprus Win 32.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Laagri1.78
Vaprus1.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
Laagri Laagri
WWDLW
30 GF / 29 GA
Vaprus Vaprus
WLDWL
32 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.88
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
1.94
10
BTTS Yes
9
12
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Laagri Laagri 18 matches
Vaprus Vaprus 17 matches
Laagri Statistic Vaprus
9 Wins 6
3 Draws 2
6 Losses 9
30 Goals For 32
29 Goals Against 33
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.88
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 1.94
10 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 15
12 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vaprus having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vaprus.

Laagri Analysis

Laagri come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 16 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, while the 14:20 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Eerme (3 goals), A. Binate (2 goals), A. Jarve (2 goals), with creative support from Rudenko Daniil (5 assists), K. Eerme (1 assists), A. Binate (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus are currently 8 in the standings with 13 points from 11 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 13:21 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by H. Valja (6 goals), S. Viidas (3 goals), K. Aloe (2 goals), with creative support from M. Lepik (2 assists), K. Aloe (1 assists), M. Limberg (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Laagri won 3 times, Vaprus won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:15 from Laagri's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.36 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.1%)
H2H summary: Laagri wins 3, draws 3, Vaprus wins 5

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 22 6 1 81:21 60 72
D W W W W
2 29 18 1 10 59:39 20 55
W W D W W
3 29 15 6 8 48:36 12 51
W W L W L
4 29 15 5 9 52:27 25 50
W W L L L
5 29 14 2 13 37:47 -10 44
L L W L W
6 29 11 2 16 40:47 -7 35
D W L L W
7 29 10 4 15 39:57 -18 34
L L L W W
8 29 8 5 16 31:49 -18 29
D L L W D
9 29 9 1 19 47:68 -21 28
L L W L L
10 29 5 4 20 22:65 -43 19
D L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga