ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Referee: M. Pukk
Laagri
Match Timeline
Trans Narva
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
H. Palutaja
Laagri
VAR
20'
A. Binate
Laagri
31'
N. Baljabkin
Laagri
🔄
46'
V. Kudriashov ↔ A. Filatov
Trans Narva
🔄
46'
E. Zuravljov ↔ A. Gero
Trans Narva
🔄
46'
A. Besigirskis ↔ S. Agaptsev
Trans Narva
🔄
61'
I. Kartau ↔ M. Kelement
Laagri
🔄
61'
R. Sillamaa ↔ K. Eerme
Laagri
🔄
75'
M. Velijev ↔ J. Imeh
Trans Narva
🟥
78'
A. Filatov
Trans Narva
🔄
81'
A. Binate ↔ K. Roomussaar
Laagri
🔄
81'
I. Bah ↔ Rudenko Daniil
Laagri
🟨
82'
S. Agaptsev
Trans Narva
🔄
88'
J. Ndakala ↔ A. Kose
Laagri
🔄
90+1'
S. Agaptsev ↔ D. Poliakov
Trans Narva
90+3'
K. Eerme
Laagri

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.1%
Odds 2.05
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.1%
2.05
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.62
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
1.69
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.20
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Laagri Win 82.1%
Draw 9%
Trans Narva Win 9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Laagri1.79
Trans Narva1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Laagri Laagri
WWDLW
38 GF / 41 GA
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WLDWL
24 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
2.19
14
BTTS Yes
13
17
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Laagri Laagri 25 matches
Trans Narva Trans Narva 26 matches
Laagri Statistic Trans Narva
10 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
12 Losses 17
38 Goals For 24
41 Goals Against 57
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 2.19
14 BTTS Yes 13
22 Over 1.5 21
17 Over 2.5 18
9 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Trans Narva having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Trans Narva.

Laagri Analysis

Laagri sit 8 with 19 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 21:30, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva sit 10 with 10 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 11:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Laagri won 5 times, Trans Narva won 6 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:19 from Laagri's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.09 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91%)
H2H summary: Laagri wins 5, draws 0, Trans Narva wins 6
Last matches: Laagri
05.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
2
L
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
17.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
18.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
07.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
2
1
W
28.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Metta / LU
1
5
L
20.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Mārupe
4
0
W
Last matches: Trans Narva
04.07.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
2
L
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
20.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
1
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
01.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
0
3
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
18.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
1
2
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
07.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
3
0
W
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
21.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
1
W
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
07.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
L
25.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Tartu Welco
2
2
D
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
H2H: Laagri vs Trans Narva
30.05.26
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
07.03.26
H2H
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
2
W
25.10.25
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
1
0
W
14.09.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
3
W
27.05.25
H2H
Trans Narva
Laagri
4
2
L
29.03.25
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
0
3
L
31.10.24
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
0
3
L
23.09.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Laagri
1
3
W
18.08.23
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
0
2
L
02.05.23
H2H
Trans Narva
Laagri
2
0
L
08.04.23
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
1
2
L
Last matches: Laagri
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Mārupe
4
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Riga Mariners
4
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Valmiera / BSS
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Laagri
Tartu Welco
3
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Laagri
PK-35
1
1
D
H2H at home: Laagri
30.05.26
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
25.10.25
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
1
0
W
29.03.25
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
0
3
L
31.10.24
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
0
3
L
18.08.23
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
0
2
L
08.04.23
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
1
2
L
Last matches: Trans Narva
21.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Tammeka
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
0
0
D
30.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Laagri
0
3
L
09.05.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Vaprus
0
2
L
26.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
7
L
22.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Flora Tallinn
0
6
L
11.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Nõmme United
1
5
L
03.04.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Kalju Nomme
1
2
L
15.03.26
Mei
Trans Narva
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Kuressaare
2
2
D
15.02.26
Fri
Trans Narva
Vaprus
2
0
W
31.01.26
Fri
Trans Narva
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
0
D
H2H away: Trans Narva
30.05.26
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
L
25.10.25
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
1
0
L
29.03.25
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
0
3
W
31.10.24
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
0
3
W
18.08.23
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
0
2
W
08.04.23
H2H
Laagri
Trans Narva
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.13
Draw 3.68
Home 2.05
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.65
Draw 2.34
Home 2.56
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 2.0 1.30
Over 2.25 1.50
Over 2.5 1.69
Over 2.75 1.88
Over 3.0 2.15
Over 3.25 2.41
Over 3.5 2.68
Under 2.0 3.30
Under 2.25 2.50
Under 2.5 2.12
Under 2.75 1.92
Under 3.0 1.68
Under 3.25 1.53
Under 3.5 1.43
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 3.40
Home 2.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.30
Home 2.60
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.20
Draw 2.62
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.04
Over 1.5 1.20
Over 2.5 1.70
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 4.5 4.50
Over 5.5 8.00
Over 6.5 12.00
Over 7.5 17.00
Under 0.5 9.00
Under 1.5 4.33
Under 2.5 2.10
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.5 1.17
Under 5.5 1.06
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.12
Draw 3.50
Home 2.03
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.74
Draw 2.20
Home 2.61
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.38
Draw 2.57
Home 2.38
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.02
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.08
Over 1.5 1.16
Over 1.75 1.21
Over 2.0 1.27
Over 2.25 1.48
Over 2.5 1.67
Over 2.75 1.85
Over 3.0 2.08
Over 3.25 2.35
Over 3.5 2.62
Over 3.75 3.14
Over 4.0 4.20
Over 4.25 4.60
Over 4.5 4.95
Over 4.75 6.29
Over 5.0 9.10
Over 5.5 10.00
Over 6.5 12.00
Over 7.5 17.00
Under 0.5 11.70
Under 1.0 8.90
Under 1.25 5.70
Under 1.5 4.05
Under 1.75 3.58
Under 2.0 3.14
Under 2.25 2.46
Under 2.5 2.08
Under 2.75 1.85
Under 3.0 1.60
Under 3.25 1.47
Under 3.5 1.38
Under 3.75 1.27
Under 4.0 1.15
Under 4.25 1.13
Under 4.5 1.11
Under 4.75 1.06
Under 5.0 1.00
Under 5.5 1.05
Under 6.5 1.01
Under 7.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.95
Draw 3.45
Home 2.14
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.38
Home 2.70
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.10
Draw 2.70
Home 2.48
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.16
Over 2.0 1.27
Over 2.5 1.62
Over 3.0 2.02
Over 3.5 2.55
Over 4.0 3.90
Over 4.25 4.20
Over 4.5 4.50
Under 1.5 4.10
Under 2.0 3.35
Under 2.5 2.12
Under 3.0 1.68
Under 3.5 1.44
Under 4.0 1.20
Under 4.25 1.18
Under 4.5 1.16

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 18 12 0 6 38:19 19 36
W W L W L
3 19 10 4 5 33:16 17 34
W D D L D
4 19 9 5 5 30:23 7 32
W D W W D
5 19 8 2 9 27:35 -8 26
W L W L D
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 19 7 1 11 37:45 -8 22
W L W L W
8 19 7 1 11 25:32 -7 22
W L L L L
9 19 5 2 12 19:33 -14 17
L L L D W
10 19 3 1 15 12:46 -34 10
L L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga