ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
10.07.2026 16:00
Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Referee: M. Pukk
Laagri
Match Timeline
Trans Narva
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
H. Palutaja
Laagri
VAR
20'
A. Binate
Laagri
31'
N. Baljabkin
Laagri
🔄
46'
A. Besigirskis ↔ S. Agaptsev
Trans Narva
🔄
46'
E. Zuravljov ↔ A. Gero
Trans Narva
🔄
46'
V. Kudriashov ↔ A. Filatov
Trans Narva
🔄
61'
R. Sillamaa ↔ K. Eerme
Laagri
🔄
61'
I. Kartau ↔ M. Kelement
Laagri
🔄
75'
M. Velijev ↔ J. Imeh
Trans Narva
🟥
78'
A. Filatov
Trans Narva
🔄
81'
I. Bah ↔ Rudenko Daniil
Laagri
🔄
81'
A. Binate ↔ K. Roomussaar
Laagri
🟨
82'
S. Agaptsev
Trans Narva
🔄
88'
J. Ndakala ↔ A. Kose
Laagri
🔄
90+1'
↔ D. Poliakov
Trans Narva
90'
K. Eerme
Laagri

Laagri vs Trans Narva Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.1%
-
BTTS Yes
58.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Laagri Win 82.1%
Draw 9%
Trans Narva Win 9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Laagri1.79
Trans Narva1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Laagri Laagri
WWDLW
38 GF / 41 GA
Trans Narva Trans Narva
WLDWL
24 GF / 57 GA
Key Stats
1.52
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.64
Average Goals Conceded
2.19
14
BTTS Yes
13
17
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Laagri Laagri 25 matches
Trans Narva Trans Narva 26 matches
Laagri Statistic Trans Narva
10 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
12 Losses 17
38 Goals For 24
41 Goals Against 57
1.52 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.64 Avg Goals Conceded 2.19
14 BTTS Yes 13
22 Over 1.5 21
17 Over 2.5 18
9 Over 3.5 8
6 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Trans Narva having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Trans Narva.

Laagri Analysis

Laagri sit 8 with 19 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 21:30, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Trans Narva Analysis

Trans Narva sit 10 with 10 points after 17 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 1 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 11:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 8 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Laagri won 6 times, Trans Narva won 6 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:19 from Laagri's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.08 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91%)
Predicted formations: Laagri 4-2-3-1 / Trans Narva -
H2H summary: Laagri wins 6, draws 0, Trans Narva wins 6

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 21 5 1 74:20 54 68
W W W W W
2 28 17 1 10 56:37 19 52
W D W W L
3 28 14 5 9 49:26 23 47
W L L L L
4 27 13 6 8 43:35 8 45
L W L W W
5 27 14 2 11 36:38 -2 44
W L W L W
6 28 11 1 16 40:47 -7 34
W L L W W
7 27 10 4 13 37:52 -15 34
L W W D L
8 28 9 1 18 46:65 -19 28
L W L L L
9 28 8 4 16 31:49 -18 28
L L W D L
10 28 5 3 20 21:64 -43 18
L D L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga