URUGUAY SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.9%
Odds 1.80
BTTS
No
Probability 65.8%
Odds 1.59
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 65.5%
Odds 1.40
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.9%
1.80
BTTS No
65.8%
1.59
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
65.5%
1.40
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.30
Correct Score 2-0
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
La Luz Win 46.7%
Draw 11.1%
Tacuarembo Win 42.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
La Luz0.89
Tacuarembo0.89
Recent Form (Last 5)
La Luz La Luz
WWDLW
11 GF / 14 GA
Tacuarembo Tacuarembo
WLDWL
13 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
0.73
Average Goals Scored
0.87
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
5
BTTS Yes
7
4
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

La Luz La Luz 15 matches
Tacuarembo Tacuarembo 15 matches
La Luz Statistic Tacuarembo
3 Wins 4
8 Draws 5
4 Losses 6
11 Goals For 13
14 Goals Against 17
0.73 Avg Goals Scored 0.87
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
5 BTTS Yes 7
9 Over 1.5 11
4 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 1
7 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. La Luz have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Tacuarembo. Tacuarembo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 14 points while La Luz sit 12 on 10, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tacuarembo having the stronger overall control.

La Luz Analysis

La Luz approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 10 points from 9 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 6:8, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tacuarembo Analysis

Tacuarembo come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 14 points from 9 matches. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 8:8 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, La Luz won 2 times, Tacuarembo won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:6 from La Luz's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.86 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.9%)
H2H summary: La Luz wins 2, draws 3, Tacuarembo wins 2
Last matches: La Luz
04.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Plaza Colonia
0
1
L
28.06.26
Seg
La Luz
CA River Plate
0
0
D
21.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
2
0
W
14.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
0
4
L
06.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Paysandu
1
2
L
31.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
24.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
2
0
W
17.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
0
0
D
09.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
0
D
18.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
0
0
D
11.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
2
1
W
28.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
2
2
D
22.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
0
0
D
17.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
26.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Deportivo Maldonado
1
1
D
18.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
11.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
04.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Albion FC
1
0
W
27.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
2
0
W
Last matches: Tacuarembo
05.07.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Cerrito
0
0
D
27.06.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Atenas
0
2
L
20.06.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Paysandu
1
0
W
13.06.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Sportivo Huracan
1
2
L
07.06.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Uruguay Montevideo
1
0
W
01.06.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Oriental
0
2
L
24.05.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Colón
2
0
W
17.05.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Fenix
2
1
W
10.05.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Rentistas
1
1
D
26.04.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Uruguay Montevideo
1
1
D
18.04.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Atenas
0
1
L
12.04.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Sportivo Huracan
0
2
L
05.04.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Fenix
2
3
L
29.03.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Cerrito
1
1
D
17.03.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
La Luz
1
1
D
15.11.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Atenas
2
2
D
09.11.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Atenas
1
1
D
25.10.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
19.10.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Albion FC
2
0
W
10.10.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Fenix
2
4
L
H2H: La Luz vs Tacuarembo
17.03.26
H2H
Tacuarembo
La Luz
1
1
D
30.08.25
H2H
Tacuarembo
La Luz
1
1
D
07.06.25
H2H
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
2
L
30.03.25
H2H
Tacuarembo
La Luz
1
1
D
29.09.24
H2H
La Luz
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
16.06.24
H2H
Tacuarembo
La Luz
0
1
W
23.03.24
H2H
Tacuarembo
La Luz
1
0
L
Last matches: La Luz
21.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
2
0
W
06.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Paysandu
1
2
L
24.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
2
0
W
09.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
0
D
11.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
2
1
W
28.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
2
2
D
18.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
04.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Albion FC
1
0
W
19.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Rampla Juniors
1
1
D
05.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Central Espanol
0
4
L
26.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Rentistas
2
0
W
10.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
1
L
02.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
19.07.25
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
1
0
W
06.07.25
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
2
2
D
24.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
1
1
D
07.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
2
L
01.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Artigas
1
1
D
24.05.25
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
2
2
D
H2H at home: La Luz
07.06.25
H2H
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
2
L
29.09.24
H2H
La Luz
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
Last matches: Tacuarembo
27.06.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Atenas
0
2
L
13.06.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Sportivo Huracan
1
2
L
01.06.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Oriental
0
2
L
17.05.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Fenix
2
1
W
26.04.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Uruguay Montevideo
1
1
D
18.04.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Atenas
0
1
L
05.04.26
Seg
Tacuarembo
Fenix
2
3
L
15.11.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Atenas
2
2
D
25.10.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Uruguay Montevideo
0
0
D
10.10.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Fenix
2
4
L
28.09.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Atenas
0
1
L
14.09.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Artigas
1
1
D
07.09.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Rentistas
1
3
L
24.08.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Cerrito
1
1
D
15.08.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Deportivo Maldonado
0
2
L
27.07.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Albion FC
0
1
L
12.07.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Rampla Juniors
1
1
D
27.06.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Central Espanol
1
1
D
07.06.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
La Luz
2
1
W
30.05.25
Seg
Tacuarembo
Colón
0
2
L
H2H away: Tacuarembo
07.06.25
H2H
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
2
W
29.09.24
H2H
La Luz
Tacuarembo
2
0
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.90
Home 2.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.00
Draw 1.91
Home 3.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.58
Draw 2.89
Home 2.10
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.74
Draw 1.83
Home 2.84
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.15
Draw 2.11
Home 2.53
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.07
Over 0.75 1.10
Over 1.0 1.13
Over 1.25 1.34
Over 1.5 1.53
Over 1.75 1.67
Over 2.0 1.94
Over 2.25 2.30
Over 2.5 2.56
Over 2.75 3.08
Over 3.0 4.30
Over 3.25 4.61
Over 3.5 5.05
Over 4.5 13.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Under 0.5 5.75
Under 0.75 5.14
Under 1.0 4.50
Under 1.25 2.92
Under 1.5 2.31
Under 1.75 1.98
Under 2.0 1.70
Under 2.25 1.54
Under 2.5 1.40
Under 2.75 1.28
Under 3.0 1.15
Under 3.25 1.13
Under 3.5 1.10
Under 4.5 1.03
Under 5.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.05
Draw 2.80
Home 2.35
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.85
Draw 1.89
Home 3.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.45
Draw 2.15
Home 2.80
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.53
Over 2.5 2.65
Over 3.5 5.00
Under 0.5 5.30
Under 1.5 2.23
Under 2.5 1.38
Under 3.5 1.11

Standings

Segunda Division: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 1 2 17:8 9 19
D W W W L
2 10 5 2 3 17:16 1 17
W W D L W
3 9 4 3 2 14:13 1 15
D W L L W
4 10 4 3 3 10:9 1 15
W W D W D
5 9 4 2 3 8:8 0 14
D L W L W
6 9 3 4 2 14:11 3 13
W L D D W
7 9 3 4 2 14:11 3 13
D W L W D
8 10 4 1 5 10:11 -1 13
L W L L W
9 10 3 3 4 8:12 -4 12
L L L W W
10 9 2 5 2 14:12 2 11
L D D W D
11 9 3 2 4 8:12 -4 11
L W W L L
12 9 2 4 3 6:8 -2 10
L D W L L
13 9 2 1 6 11:15 -4 7
W L L L W
14 9 2 1 6 9:14 -5 7
L W L L L
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Apertura)