URUGUAY SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
52.4%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
La Luz Win 52.4%
Draw 5.3%
Oriental Win 42.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
La Luz0.95
Oriental1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
La Luz La Luz
WWDLW
17 GF / 21 GA
Oriental Oriental
WLDWL
26 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
0.85
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
7
BTTS Yes
12
6
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

La Luz La Luz 20 matches
Oriental Oriental 21 matches
La Luz Statistic Oriental
5 Wins 7
9 Draws 8
6 Losses 6
17 Goals For 26
21 Goals Against 23
0.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
7 BTTS Yes 12
12 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Oriental's more proactive style and La Luz's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Oriental. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Oriental having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Oriental carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 13 points while La Luz sit 9 on 7, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

La Luz Analysis

La Luz are currently 9 in the standings with 7 points from 6 matches. The record of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 5:6 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Oriental Analysis

Oriental approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 13 points after 6 outings. The return of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 8:5, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through their main attacking players, while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, La Luz won 1 times, Oriental won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:7 from La Luz's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
H2H summary: La Luz wins 1, draws 4, Oriental wins 2
Last matches: La Luz
16.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
1
2
L
08.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
0
0
D
01.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Rentistas
2
5
L
26.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Miramar
1
0
W
13.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
04.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Plaza Colonia
0
1
L
28.06.26
Seg
La Luz
CA River Plate
0
0
D
21.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
2
0
W
14.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
0
4
L
06.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Paysandu
1
2
L
31.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
1
1
D
24.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
2
0
W
17.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
0
0
D
09.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
0
D
18.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
0
0
D
11.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
2
1
W
28.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
2
2
D
22.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
0
0
D
17.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
Last matches: Oriental
14.08.26
Seg
Oriental
Cerrito
1
1
D
09.08.26
Seg
Oriental
Atenas
0
1
L
03.08.26
Seg
Oriental
Paysandu
1
2
L
18.07.26
Seg
Oriental
Sportivo Huracan
1
0
W
12.07.26
Seg
Oriental
Uruguay Montevideo
1
1
D
04.07.26
Seg
Oriental
CA River Plate
1
2
L
28.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Colón
1
1
D
20.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Fenix
2
2
D
13.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Rentistas
3
0
W
08.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Miramar
2
2
D
01.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
22.05.26
Seg
Oriental
Plaza Colonia
1
3
L
17.05.26
Seg
Oriental
La Luz
0
0
D
10.05.26
Seg
Oriental
Cerrito
2
2
D
02.05.26
Seg
Oriental
Fenix
0
1
L
24.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Plaza Colonia
0
2
L
20.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Rentistas
2
1
W
12.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Miramar
2
1
W
05.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Paysandu
1
0
W
23.03.26
Seg
Oriental
Colón
0
0
D
H2H: La Luz vs Oriental
17.05.26
H2H
Oriental
La Luz
0
0
D
18.10.25
H2H
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
26.07.25
H2H
Oriental
La Luz
2
2
D
05.04.25
H2H
La Luz
Oriental
1
2
L
21.09.24
H2H
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
05.06.24
H2H
Oriental
La Luz
1
0
L
07.04.24
H2H
Oriental
La Luz
0
1
W
Last matches: La Luz
01.08.26
Seg
La Luz
Rentistas
2
5
L
13.07.26
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
2
0
W
21.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Cerrito
2
0
W
06.06.26
Seg
La Luz
Paysandu
1
2
L
24.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
2
0
W
09.05.26
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
0
D
11.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
0
2
L
04.04.26
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
2
1
W
28.03.26
Seg
La Luz
Sportivo Huracan
2
2
D
18.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
04.10.25
Seg
La Luz
Albion FC
1
0
W
19.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Rampla Juniors
1
1
D
05.09.25
Seg
La Luz
Central Espanol
0
4
L
26.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Rentistas
2
0
W
10.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Colón
0
1
L
02.08.25
Seg
La Luz
Deportivo Maldonado
1
2
L
19.07.25
Seg
La Luz
Uruguay Montevideo
1
0
W
06.07.25
Seg
La Luz
Fenix
2
2
D
24.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Atenas
1
1
D
07.06.25
Seg
La Luz
Tacuarembo
1
2
L
H2H at home: La Luz
18.10.25
H2H
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
05.04.25
H2H
La Luz
Oriental
1
2
L
21.09.24
H2H
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
Last matches: Oriental
14.08.26
Seg
Oriental
Cerrito
1
1
D
03.08.26
Seg
Oriental
Paysandu
1
2
L
12.07.26
Seg
Oriental
Uruguay Montevideo
1
1
D
20.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Fenix
2
2
D
08.06.26
Seg
Oriental
Miramar
2
2
D
22.05.26
Seg
Oriental
Plaza Colonia
1
3
L
02.05.26
Seg
Oriental
Fenix
0
1
L
24.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Plaza Colonia
0
2
L
20.04.26
Seg
Oriental
Rentistas
2
1
W
14.03.26
Seg
Oriental
CA River Plate
3
1
W
18.10.25
Seg
Oriental
La Luz
1
1
D
12.10.25
Seg
Oriental
Cerrito
3
2
W
04.10.25
Seg
Oriental
Colón
0
0
D
14.09.25
Seg
Oriental
Uruguay Montevideo
4
0
W
30.08.25
Seg
Oriental
Fenix
1
2
L
20.08.25
Seg
Oriental
Atenas
2
1
W
10.08.25
Seg
Oriental
Tacuarembo
1
1
D
01.08.25
Seg
Oriental
Rentistas
0
2
L
06.07.25
Seg
Oriental
Deportivo Maldonado
0
3
L
28.06.25
Seg
Oriental
Artigas
2
1
W
H2H away: Oriental
18.10.25
H2H
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D
05.04.25
H2H
La Luz
Oriental
1
2
W
21.09.24
H2H
La Luz
Oriental
1
1
D

Standings

1st Phase
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 4 1 1 8:5 3 13
L W W W D
2 6 3 3 0 9:2 7 12
W D D W W
3 6 3 2 1 13:7 6 11
W L W W D
4 6 2 4 0 9:6 3 10
D W W D D
5 6 2 3 1 8:5 3 9
D W D L D
6 6 2 3 1 7:5 2 9
D W L W D
7 6 2 3 1 6:5 1 9
D L W W D
8 6 2 3 1 8:8 0 9
D D L W D
9 6 1 4 1 5:6 -1 7
D L W D D
10 6 1 2 3 3:7 -4 5
D D L W L
11 6 1 1 4 4:7 -3 4
L D L L W
12 6 1 1 4 5:11 -6 4
L W L L L
13 6 1 1 4 6:13 -7 4
W L L L D
14 6 0 3 3 5:9 -4 3
D L L L D