JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Referee: K. Takasaki
Kyoto Sanga
Match Timeline
V-varen Nagasaki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Thiago Santana
V-varen Nagasaki
🟨
28'
Haruki Arai
Kyoto Sanga
51'
Rafael Elias · Assist: M. Okugawa
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
65'
M. Sekiguchi ↔ T. Kasayanagi
V-varen Nagasaki
VAR
70'
Hisashi Appiah Tawiah
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
75'
H. Yamaguchi ↔ N. Campbell
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
76'
T. Matsuda ↔ T. Hiraoka
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
84'
Hisashi Appiah Tawiah
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
85'
M. Okugawa ↔ F. Honda
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
85'
Thiago ↔ R. Yamasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
85'
S. Yoneda ↔ K. Takahata
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
85'
Diego Pituca ↔ T. Matsumoto
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
89'
R. Nakano ↔ S. Nagasawa
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
89'
H. Arai ↔ S. Asada
Kyoto Sanga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 75.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
75.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
12.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kyoto Sanga Win 35%
Draw 24.6%
V-varen Nagasaki Win 40.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kyoto Sanga1.39
V-varen Nagasaki1.34
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
WWDLW
25 GF / 29 GA
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WLDWL
22 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.32
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
12
BTTS Yes
10
10
Over 2.5
10
4.18
Shots on Goal
3.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 19 matches
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 18 matches
Kyoto Sanga Statistic V-varen Nagasaki
5 Wins 7
5 Draws 2
9 Losses 9
25 Goals For 22
29 Goals Against 27
1.32 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
12 BTTS Yes 10
17 Over 1.5 14
10 Over 2.5 10
3 Over 3.5 5
1 Clean Sheets 4
6 Failed To Score 4
4.18 Shots On Goal 3.76
12.53 Total Shots 11.18
4.88 Corners 4
53.2% Ball Possession 47.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Kyoto Sanga have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward V-varen Nagasaki. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kyoto Sanga expected to line up in 4-3-3 and V-varen Nagasaki in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward V-varen Nagasaki having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Kyoto Sanga Analysis

With 20 points from 17 games and a place of 10, Kyoto Sanga still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 0 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 21:28 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on Marco Tulio (5 goals), Rafael Elias (4 goals), Henrique Trevisan (3 goals), with creative support from F. Honda (3 assists), Rafael Elias (2 assists), Henrique Trevisan (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

From their first 17 matches, V-varen Nagasaki have collected 21 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses, while the 21:28 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Matheus Jesus (6 goals), Thiago (6 goals), N. Campbell (2 goals), with creative support from Matheus Jesus (4 assists), N. Campbell (2 assists), Motoki Hasegawa (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kyoto Sanga won 5 times, V-varen Nagasaki won 9 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:17 from Kyoto Sanga's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.4%)
Predicted formations: Kyoto Sanga 4-3-3 / V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Kyoto Sanga wins 5, draws 1, V-varen Nagasaki wins 9

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)