JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
17.05.2026 06:00
Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Referee: J. Iida
Kyoto Sanga
Match Timeline
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
29'
S. Nakamura · Assist: S. Higashi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🟨
36'
Henrique Trevisan
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
46'
T. Matsuda ↔ F. Honda
Kyoto Sanga
49'
A. Suzuki · Assist: M. Kato
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
51'
M. Kato · Assist: S. Higashi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
52'
R. Nakano ↔ H. Arai
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
61'
Arai Naoto
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
64'
Souza Alex ↔ M. Okugawa
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
65'
N. Arai ↔ T. Matsumoto
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
65'
M. Kato ↔ R. Germain
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🟨
66'
João Pedro
Kyoto Sanga
75'
T. Matsumoto · Assist: S. Nakamura
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
76'
K. Sato ↔ T. Hiraoka
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
76'
Henrique Trevisan ↔ S. Asada
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
79'
S. Nakamura ↔ N. Maeda
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
79'
A. Suzuki ↔ K. Kinoshita
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
🔄
86'
H. Kawabe ↔ S. Kobayashi
Sanfrecce Hiroshima

Kyoto Sanga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
81.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kyoto Sanga Win 43.4%
Draw 18.1%
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Win 38.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kyoto Sanga1.37
Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
WWDLW
25 GF / 25 GA
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima
WLDWL
24 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.41
1.39
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
12
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
9
4.31
Shots on Goal
4.81

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 18 matches
Sanfrecce Hiroshima Sanfrecce Hiroshima 17 matches
Kyoto Sanga Statistic Sanfrecce Hiroshima
5 Wins 6
5 Draws 4
8 Losses 7
25 Goals For 24
25 Goals Against 23
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.41
1.39 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
12 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 14
9 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 4
1 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 2
4.31 Shots On Goal 4.81
13.13 Total Shots 16.25
5.13 Corners 5.75
53.1% Ball Possession 55.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Sanfrecce Hiroshima's more proactive style and Kyoto Sanga's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kyoto Sanga expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Sanfrecce Hiroshima in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sanfrecce Hiroshima having the stronger overall control.

Kyoto Sanga Analysis

With 20 points from 15 games and a place of 9, Kyoto Sanga still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 21:23, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Marco Tulio (5 goals), Rafael Elias (4 goals), Henrique Trevisan (2 goals), with creative support from F. Honda (3 assists), Rafael Elias (2 assists), Henrique Trevisan (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sanfrecce Hiroshima Analysis

With 24 points from 16 games and a place of 5, Sanfrecce Hiroshima still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 0 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 23:21 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Suzuki (3 goals), K. Kinoshita (3 goals), R. Germain (3 goals), with creative support from A. Suzuki (3 assists), S. Higashi (3 assists), H. Kawabe (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Kyoto Sanga won 4 times, Sanfrecce Hiroshima won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:20 from Kyoto Sanga's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.9%)
Predicted formations: Kyoto Sanga 4-3-3 / Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Kyoto Sanga wins 4, draws 2, Sanfrecce Hiroshima wins 5

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)