JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Sanga Stadium by Kyocera
Referee: A. Kamimura
Kyoto Sanga
Match Timeline
Kashiwa Reysol
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
Y. Koizumi · Assist: Y. Kakita
Kashiwa Reysol
2'
H. Arai · Assist: Rafael Elias
Kyoto Sanga
VAR
12'
Ryuma Nakano
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
14'
Ryuma Nakano
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
29'
Hinata Yamauchi
Kashiwa Reysol
39'
Y. Kakita · Assist: Y. Koizumi
Kashiwa Reysol
45'
D. Sugioka · Assist: Y. Koizumi
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
46'
R. Nakano ↔ Joao Pedro
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
46'
H. Yamauchi ↔ Y. Segawa
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
61'
T. Matsuda ↔ T. Hiraoka
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
61'
H. Arai ↔ F. Honda
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
61'
Y. Kakita ↔ M. Hosoya
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
66'
Henrique Trevisan ↔ H. Appiah Tawiah
Kyoto Sanga
67'
Rafael Elias · Assist: F. Honda
Kyoto Sanga
🟨
71'
João Pedro
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
77'
Y. Konishi ↔ R. Harakawa
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
83'
M. Okugawa ↔ Souza Alex
Kyoto Sanga
🔄
83'
Y. Koizumi ↔ S. Baba
Kashiwa Reysol
🔄
83'
H. Mitsumaru ↔ Y. Komi
Kashiwa Reysol
87'
Y. Komi
Kashiwa Reysol
90'
T. Kubo · Assist: M. Hosoya
Kashiwa Reysol
90'
Y. Komi · Assist: S. Baba
Kashiwa Reysol

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 61.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
61.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
56.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kyoto Sanga Win 61.8%
Draw 10.4%
Kashiwa Reysol Win 27.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kyoto Sanga1.31
Kashiwa Reysol1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
WWDLW
26 GF / 29 GA
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol
WLDWL
23 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.3
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
12
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
8
4.39
Shots on Goal
3.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 20 matches
Kashiwa Reysol Kashiwa Reysol 19 matches
Kyoto Sanga Statistic Kashiwa Reysol
6 Wins 7
5 Draws 1
9 Losses 11
26 Goals For 23
29 Goals Against 25
1.3 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
12 BTTS Yes 7
17 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 8
3 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 7
4.39 Shots On Goal 3.89
13.06 Total Shots 12.67
5 Corners 5.33
53.3% Ball Possession 56.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Kashiwa Reysol. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Kyoto Sanga have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kyoto Sanga expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Kashiwa Reysol in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kashiwa Reysol having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Kyoto Sanga Analysis

With 23 points from 18 games and a place of 8, Kyoto Sanga still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 0 draws, and 10 losses, together with goals at 22:28, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Marco Tulio (5 goals), Rafael Elias (5 goals), Henrique Trevisan (3 goals), with creative support from F. Honda (3 assists), Rafael Elias (2 assists), Henrique Trevisan (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kashiwa Reysol Analysis

So far, Kashiwa Reysol have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 20 points from 18 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses with goals at 22:24 reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking weight is carried by Y. Segawa (4 goals), M. Hosoya (3 goals), Nobuteru Nakagawa (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Koizumi (2 assists), H. Mitsumaru (2 assists), Y. Segawa (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kyoto Sanga won 4 times, Kashiwa Reysol won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:33 from Kyoto Sanga's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: Kyoto Sanga 4-3-3 / Kashiwa Reysol 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Kyoto Sanga wins 4, draws 6, Kashiwa Reysol wins 5

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)