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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
21.10.2026 10:00
Sanga Stadium by Kyocera

Kyoto Sanga vs Kashima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 73.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
73.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Kyoto Sanga Win 20.4%
Draw 6%
Kashima Win 73.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kyoto Sanga1.44
Kashima1.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga
WWDLW
11 GF / 16 GA
Kashima Kashima
WLDWL
19 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.22
Average Goals Scored
2.11
1.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
7
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
6
4.11
Shots on Goal
4.56

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kyoto Sanga Kyoto Sanga 9 matches
Kashima Kashima 9 matches
Kyoto Sanga Statistic Kashima
2 Wins 5
2 Draws 1
5 Losses 3
11 Goals For 19
16 Goals Against 16
1.22 Avg Goals Scored 2.11
1.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
7 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 8
6 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 4
0 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 1
4.11 Shots On Goal 4.56
12.67 Total Shots 16.22
3.22 Corners 3.67
46.4% Ball Possession 57.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Kashima's more proactive style and Kyoto Sanga's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Kashima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 6 with 16 points while Kyoto Sanga sit 16 on 8, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kyoto Sanga expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Kashima in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kashima having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Kashima. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Kyoto Sanga Analysis

Kyoto Sanga sit 16 with 8 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 11:16, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Rafael Elias (4 goals), R. Nakano (2 goals), Shinnosuke Fukuda (1 goals), with creative support from Rafael Elias (2 assists), R. Nakano (1 assists), Shinnosuke Fukuda (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kashima Analysis

Kashima sit 6 with 16 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 19:16, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Léo Ceará (9 goals), A. Čavrić (4 goals), Y. Suzuki (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Suzuki (2 assists), Y. Matsumura (2 assists), Yan Matheus (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Kyoto Sanga won 1 times, Kashima won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:11 from Kyoto Sanga's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94%)
Predicted formations: Kyoto Sanga 4-2-3-1 / Kashima 4-4-2
H2H summary: Kyoto Sanga wins 1, draws 4, Kashima wins 4

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 0 2 21:14 7 21
W W W L L
2 9 6 2 1 22:6 16 20
W W W L W
3 9 6 2 1 22:10 12 20
W L D W W
4 9 6 2 1 17:8 9 20
W W W W D
5 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
L W W W W
6 9 5 1 3 19:16 3 16
W D L L L
7 9 4 3 2 13:9 4 15
D W D W D
8 9 3 4 2 17:14 3 13
L D W W L
9 9 4 1 4 12:12 0 13
L L W W W
10 9 4 1 4 8:9 -1 13
W W W L D
11 9 4 0 5 16:21 -5 12
L W L W W
12 9 3 3 3 7:12 -5 12
D D L D W
13 9 2 3 4 12:13 -1 9
L L L D W
14 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
D D W L D
15 9 3 0 6 9:15 -6 9
W L L L L
16 9 2 2 5 11:16 -5 8
L W L L D
17 9 2 1 6 11:13 -2 7
W L L D L
18 9 1 3 5 8:16 -8 6
L L L L D
19 9 1 2 6 8:19 -11 5
D L D W L
20 9 0 4 5 4:14 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League