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11.10.2026 17:15
Veoliastadion Achter De Kazerne
Referee: Bert Verbeke, Netherlands
KV Mechelen
Match Timeline
St. Truiden
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
K. Takai
St. Truiden
⚽
24'
K. Takai
KV Mechelen
⚽
34'
S. Michez
KV Mechelen
⚽
39'
S. Taniguchi
KV Mechelen
🟨
42'
K. Matsuzawa
St. Truiden
⚽
44'
S. Bazdar · Assist: R. Merlen
St. Truiden
🔄
46'
K. Matsuzawa ↔ N. Ishiwatari
St. Truiden
🔄
46'
R. Araki ↔ N. Mbuku
St. Truiden
⚽
49'
I. Sebaoui
St. Truiden
🟨
53'
M. Decherf
KV Mechelen
⚽
62'
B. Raman · Assist: K. Corbanie
KV Mechelen
🔄
63'
B. Raman ↔ C. Van Meirvenne
KV Mechelen
🔄
67'
S. Bazdar ↔ F. Soelle
St. Truiden
🔄
67'
R. Merlen ↔ S. Shinkawa
St. Truiden
⚽
71'
F. Soelle
St. Truiden
🔄
81'
B. Boersma ↔ M. Lohunanu-Mbasi
KV Mechelen
🔄
81'
T. Koudou ↔ B. Antonio
KV Mechelen
🔄
81'
M. Eerdhuijzen ↔ L. Marijnissen
KV Mechelen
🔄
81'
M. Decherf ↔ D. Praet
KV Mechelen
🟨
84'
N. Ishiwatari
St. Truiden
🟨
88'
S. Taniguchi
St. Truiden
🟨
90+5'
F. Hammar
KV Mechelen

KV Mechelen vs St. Truiden Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.9%
Odds 2.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.71
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.9%
2.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.57 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.71 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.31 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
KV Mechelen Win 18%
Draw 25.1%
St. Truiden Win 56.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
KV Mechelen1.19
St. Truiden1.67
Recent Form (Last 5)
KV Mechelen KV Mechelen
WWDLW
17 GF / 23 GA
St. Truiden St. Truiden
WLDWL
30 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.76
1.53
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
6
BTTS Yes
6
8
Over 2.5
10
3.14
Shots on Goal
4.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

KV Mechelen KV Mechelen 15 matches
St. Truiden St. Truiden 17 matches
KV Mechelen Statistic St. Truiden
4 Wins 8
4 Draws 3
7 Losses 6
17 Goals For 30
23 Goals Against 22
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.76
1.53 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
6 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 10
5 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 6
3.14 Shots On Goal 4.22
11.86 Total Shots 13.44
5 Corners 5.22
49% Ball Possession 55.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. St. Truiden carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 11 with 8 points while KV Mechelen sit 18 on 3, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring St. Truiden. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward St. Truiden having the stronger overall control.

KV Mechelen Analysis

With 3 points from 7 games and a place of 18, KV Mechelen still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 5:14 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. van Brederode (3 goals), T. Koudou (1 goals), Shina Ayodele (1 goals), with creative support from M. Lohunanu-Mbasi (1 assists), K. Van Rafelghem (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

St. Truiden Analysis

With 8 points from 7 games and a place of 11, St. Truiden still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats with a 12:12 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on S. Baždar (4 goals), R. Merlen (3 goals), I. Sebaoui (1 goals), with creative support from R. Merlen (3 assists), I. Sebaoui (3 assists), A. Sissako (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, KV Mechelen won 1 times, St. Truiden won 11 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:28 from KV Mechelen's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.71 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (82%)
Predicted formations: KV Mechelen 3-4-2-1 / St. Truiden 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: KV Mechelen wins 1, draws 2, St. Truiden wins 11

Standings

Pro League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 1 0 15:4 11 22
W W D W W
2 8 7 0 1 19:4 15 21
W W W W L
3 8 7 0 1 16:7 9 21
W W W L W
4 8 6 2 0 22:4 18 20
D W W W W
5 8 5 1 2 9:6 3 16
W W W D W
6 8 4 1 3 20:17 3 13
W W W W D
7 8 3 3 2 16:12 4 12
W L D D W
8 8 3 2 3 10:9 1 11
L L L W D
9 8 3 2 3 13:13 0 11
L L L W W
10 8 3 2 3 9:9 0 11
W D L L W
11 8 3 0 5 8:14 -6 9
L L W W L
12 8 2 2 4 15:16 -1 8
L L L W L
13 8 2 1 5 12:20 -8 7
L L L L L
14 8 1 3 4 9:17 -8 6
W D L L D
15 8 1 2 5 6:14 -8 5
D W D L L
16 8 1 1 6 8:18 -10 4
L L W L D
17 8 1 0 7 2:18 -16 3
L W L L L
18 8 0 3 5 9:16 -7 3
L L D L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Challenger Pro League