ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Kuressaare Linnastaadion
Referee: J. Jaanovits
Kuressaare
Match Timeline
Flora Tallinn
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
15'
T. Varjund
Flora Tallinn
🟨
19'
D. Kuraksin
Flora Tallinn
29'
M. Kolobov
Flora Tallinn
54'
T. Varjund · Assist: S. Zenjov
Flora Tallinn
🔄
57'
J. Vahermagi ↔ G. Roivassepp
Kuressaare
🔄
57'
J. Vahermagi ↔ S. Prunn
Kuressaare
60'
T. Usta · Assist: S. Zenjov
Flora Tallinn
🔄
62'
R. Sappinen ↔ R. Valdmets
Flora Tallinn
🔄
62'
S. Zenjov ↔ S. Alamaa
Flora Tallinn
🔄
63'
S. Sinilaid ↔ R. Lukas
Kuressaare
🔄
72'
A. Kivi ↔ A. Visse
Kuressaare
🔄
72'
E. Demidov ↔ M. Leivategija
Kuressaare
🔄
72'
V. Kreida ↔ T. Teevali
Flora Tallinn
🔄
72'
T. Varjund ↔ M. Kalimullin
Flora Tallinn
🔄
78'
D. Kuraksin ↔ R. Sammul
Flora Tallinn

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 79.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
79.8%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kuressaare Win 16.4%
Draw 3.9%
Flora Tallinn Win 79.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kuressaare1.19
Flora Tallinn1.95
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kuressaare Kuressaare
WWDLW
28 GF / 44 GA
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn
WLDWL
46 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.27
Average Goals Scored
1.92
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
13
BTTS Yes
9
13
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kuressaare Kuressaare 22 matches
Flora Tallinn Flora Tallinn 24 matches
Kuressaare Statistic Flora Tallinn
6 Wins 15
4 Draws 1
12 Losses 8
28 Goals For 46
44 Goals Against 26
1.27 Avg Goals Scored 1.92
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
13 BTTS Yes 9
17 Over 1.5 19
13 Over 2.5 17
8 Over 3.5 9
2 Clean Sheets 10
8 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Flora Tallinn's more proactive style and Kuressaare's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Flora Tallinn. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Flora Tallinn having the stronger overall control. Flora Tallinn carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 30 points while Kuressaare sit 9 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Kuressaare Analysis

So far, Kuressaare have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 17 points from 16 matches. The record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 17:26 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Flora Tallinn Analysis

Flora Tallinn approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 30 points after 16 outings. They have recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, with a 33:18 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kuressaare won 0 times, Flora Tallinn won 13 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:42 from Kuressaare's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.47 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.1%)
Predicted formations: Kuressaare - / Flora Tallinn 4-3-3
H2H summary: Kuressaare wins 0, draws 2, Flora Tallinn wins 13

Lineups

Kuressaare
Formation
Flora Tallinn
K. Nomm
K. Nomm
R. Saar
R. Saar
R. Piil
R. Piil
M. Lukka
M. Lukka
J. Vahermagi
J. Vahermagi
S. Sinilaid
S. Sinilaid
D. Andreas
D. Andreas
J. Vahermagi
J. Vahermagi
E. Demidov
E. Demidov
T. Jurisoo
T. Jurisoo
A. Kivi
A. Kivi
E. Grunvald
E. Grunvald
M. Kolobov
M. Kolobov
V. Kreida
V. Kreida
R. Veering
R. Veering
S. Tovstik
S. Tovstik
S. Zenjov
🎯
S. Zenjov
T. Varjund
T. Varjund
A. Kaares
A. Kaares
D. Kuraksin
D. Kuraksin
R. Sappinen
R. Sappinen
T. Usta
T. Usta
Kuressaare 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
31
K. Nomm
23
R. Saar
36
R. Piil
21
M. Lukka
68
J. Vahermagi
↓ 57'
5
S. Sinilaid
↓ 63'
8
D. Andreas
70
J. Vahermagi
↓ 57'
77
E. Demidov
↓ 72'
11
T. Jurisoo
10
A. Kivi
↓ 72'
Substitutes
22
S. Ristna
13
A. Visse
↑ 72'
17
G. Roivassepp
↑ 57'
18
M. Dzemesjuk
25
J. Lonks
27
S. Prunn
↑ 57'
28
R. Lukas
↑ 63'
37
M. Leivategija
↑ 72'
44
O. Joost
80
R. Tarkmeel
Flora Tallinn 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
33
E. Grunvald
23
M. Kolobov
⚽ 29'
32
V. Kreida
↓ 72'
6
R. Veering
26
S. Tovstik
20
S. Zenjov
🎯 54' 🎯 60' ↓ 62'
14
T. Varjund
⚽ 54' ↓ 72'
21
A. Kaares
7
D. Kuraksin
↓ 78' 🟨 19'
11
R. Sappinen
↓ 62'
17
T. Usta
⚽ 60'
Substitutes
99
K. Kivila
5
A. Vaher
8
T. Teevali
↑ 72'
18
R. Valdmets
↑ 62'
24
O. Pihela
29
S. Alamaa
↑ 62'
52
M. Kukkonen
53
R. Sammul
↑ 78'
67
I. Antonov
89
M. Kalimullin
↑ 72'
Last matches: Kuressaare
19.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
11.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
3
L
26.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
13.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
31.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
08.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
0
1
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
18.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
07.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
21.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
4
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
08.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
2
L
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
30.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
0
1
L
23.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
1
0
W
17.07.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
1
2
L
14.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
2
D
08.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
3
L
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
21.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
1
2
L
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
13.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
30.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
5
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
22.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
6
0
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
12.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
0
W
07.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
H2H: Kuressaare vs Flora Tallinn
02.07.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
07.04.26
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
1
L
01.11.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
2
0
L
24.08.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
27.05.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
29.03.25
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
5
0
L
26.10.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
3
0
L
14.09.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
3
4
L
21.05.24
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
1
0
L
27.04.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
07.10.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
3
0
L
04.08.23
H2H
Flora Tallinn
Kuressaare
4
0
L
14.05.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
11.04.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
08.04.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
4
L
Last matches: Kuressaare
19.07.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
0
D
16.06.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
0
0
D
20.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
2
1
W
17.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
02.05.26
Mei
Kuressaare
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
2
L
21.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Vaprus
0
1
L
11.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Laagri
3
2
W
03.04.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Paide
0
1
L
14.03.26
Mei
Kuressaare
Tammeka
3
2
W
21.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Trans Narva
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Tallinna Kalev
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kuressaare
Nõmme United
3
3
D
H2H at home: Kuressaare
02.07.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
24.08.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
27.05.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
3
L
14.09.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
3
4
L
27.04.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
14.05.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
0
3
L
11.04.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
08.04.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
4
L
Last matches: Flora Tallinn
30.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
The New Saints
0
1
L
14.07.26
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Saburtalo
2
2
D
28.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
1
W
16.06.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
1
W
29.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Nõmme United
4
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Trans Narva
3
0
W
10.05.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
26.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Paide
2
1
W
19.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
4
L
03.04.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Tammeka
1
3
L
22.03.26
Mei
Flora Tallinn
Laagri
0
2
L
20.02.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Paide
3
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
AIK Stockholm
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
Flora Tallinn
Vaprus
2
2
D
10.07.25
UEF
Flora Tallinn
Valur Reykjavik
0
3
L
H2H away: Flora Tallinn
02.07.26
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
0
3
W
24.08.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
2
W
27.05.25
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
3
W
14.09.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
3
4
W
27.04.24
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
2
2
D
14.05.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
0
3
W
11.04.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
1
D
08.04.23
H2H
Kuressaare
Flora Tallinn
1
4
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 19 12 0 7 39:21 18 36
L W W L W
3 20 10 5 5 33:16 17 35
D W D D L
4 20 9 5 6 32:28 4 32
L W D W W
5 20 8 2 10 28:38 -10 26
L W L W L
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 20 8 1 11 39:46 -7 25
W W L W L
8 20 8 1 11 30:34 -4 25
W W L L L
9 20 5 3 12 19:33 -14 18
D L L L D
10 20 4 1 15 15:47 -32 13
W L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga