FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
FT
3 - 1
Vare Areena
Referee: Dennis Antamo, Finland

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 67%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
67%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
KuPS Win 48.9%
Draw 18.1%
VPS Win 33%
Expected Goals (xG)
KuPS1.34
VPS1.15
Recent Form (Last 5)
KuPS KuPS
WWDLW
36 GF / 19 GA
VPS VPS
WLDWL
27 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.35
0.86
Average Goals Conceded
0.9
11
BTTS Yes
12
8
Over 2.5
8
2.67
Shots on Goal
1.87

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

KuPS KuPS 22 matches
VPS VPS 20 matches
KuPS Statistic VPS
12 Wins 8
7 Draws 7
3 Losses 5
36 Goals For 27
19 Goals Against 18
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
0.86 Avg Goals Conceded 0.9
11 BTTS Yes 12
17 Over 1.5 13
8 Over 2.5 8
5 Over 3.5 3
9 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 5
2.67 Shots On Goal 1.87
6.5 Total Shots 4.2
2.56 Corners 1.87
26.5% Ball Possession 27.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward VPS. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with KuPS expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and VPS in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward VPS having the stronger overall control. VPS look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

KuPS Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 30 points from 15 games, KuPS bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 27:15, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through J. Luyeye-Lutumba (1 goals), with creative support from C. Antwi (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

VPS Analysis

VPS come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 27 points after 15 matches. With 7 wins, 6 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 22:11, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by L. Smyth (3 goals), with creative support from J. Muzinga (1 assists), K. Kouassivi-Benissan (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, KuPS won 8 times, VPS won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:13 from KuPS's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.9%)
Predicted formations: KuPS 4-2-3-1 / VPS 3-4-3
H2H summary: KuPS wins 8, draws 4, VPS wins 3
Last matches: KuPS
01.08.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
28.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Sabah FA
0
2
L
21.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Sabah FA
0
1
L
18.07.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
2
0
W
14.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
3
L
07.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
4
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
4
3
W
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
08.05.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
02.05.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
0
2
L
26.04.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
Last matches: VPS
02.08.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.07.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
10.07.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
4
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
23.06.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
5
1
W
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
22.05.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
2
1
W
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
09.05.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
VPS
Ilves
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
VPS
FF Jaro
0
0
D
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
VPS
Haka
1
1
D
20.03.26
Fri
VPS
GIF Sundsvall
1
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
H2H: KuPS vs VPS
25.07.26
H2H
KuPS
VPS
3
1
W
13.06.26
H2H
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
10.06.26
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
0
D
31.01.26
H2H
KuPS
VPS
3
1
W
19.07.25
H2H
VPS
KuPS
1
1
D
25.05.25
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
2
L
01.02.25
H2H
KuPS
VPS
2
0
W
14.09.24
H2H
KuPS
VPS
3
1
W
22.05.24
H2H
VPS
KuPS
1
3
W
10.05.24
H2H
KuPS
VPS
2
1
W
08.02.24
H2H
KuPS
VPS
5
0
W
17.09.23
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
2
L
08.07.23
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
1
L
11.06.23
H2H
VPS
KuPS
0
2
W
25.02.23
H2H
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
Last matches: KuPS
28.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Sabah FA
0
2
L
14.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
3
L
23.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
4
3
W
30.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
3
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
26.04.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
3
2
W
11.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
21.03.26
Fri
KuPS
JIPPO
1
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
2
L
11.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Lausanne
0
0
D
06.11.25
UEF
KuPS
Slovan Bratislava
3
1
W
02.10.25
UEF
KuPS
Drita
1
1
D
28.08.25
UEF
KuPS
FC Midtjylland
0
2
L
14.08.25
UEF
KuPS
Rīgas FS
1
0
W
22.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Kairat Almaty
2
0
W
08.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Milsami Orhei
1
0
W
H2H at home: KuPS
25.07.26
H2H
KuPS
VPS
3
1
W
10.06.26
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
0
D
31.01.26
H2H
KuPS
VPS
3
1
W
25.05.25
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
2
L
01.02.25
H2H
KuPS
VPS
2
0
W
14.09.24
H2H
KuPS
VPS
3
1
W
10.05.24
H2H
KuPS
VPS
2
1
W
08.02.24
H2H
KuPS
VPS
5
0
W
17.09.23
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
2
L
08.07.23
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
1
L
25.02.23
H2H
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
Last matches: VPS
18.07.26
Vei
VPS
HJK Helsinki
1
2
L
27.06.26
Vei
VPS
Gnistan
1
1
D
17.06.26
Vei
VPS
SJK
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vei
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
18.05.26
Vei
VPS
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
VPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
18.04.26
Vei
VPS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vei
VPS
Inter Turku
0
0
D
14.03.26
Fri
VPS
Turku PS
0
1
L
H2H away: VPS
25.07.26
H2H
KuPS
VPS
3
1
L
10.06.26
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
0
D
31.01.26
H2H
KuPS
VPS
3
1
L
25.05.25
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
2
W
01.02.25
H2H
KuPS
VPS
2
0
L
14.09.24
H2H
KuPS
VPS
3
1
L
10.05.24
H2H
KuPS
VPS
2
1
L
08.02.24
H2H
KuPS
VPS
5
0
L
17.09.23
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
2
W
08.07.23
H2H
KuPS
VPS
0
1
W
25.02.23
H2H
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
KuPS Home
18 11 6 1 33:16 17 39
W W W W W
2 18 9 7 2 25:14 11 34
W L D W D
3 18 9 3 6 22:21 1 30
W D L L D
4 18 8 4 6 28:23 5 28
L W W L L
5 18 8 4 6 27:22 5 28
L W W W L
6
VPS Away
18 7 6 5 24:17 7 27
L L L W W
7 18 7 4 7 22:16 6 25
W L W W W
8 18 7 4 7 23:20 3 25
W L L W L
9 18 6 4 8 29:31 -2 22
L W W L D
10 18 4 5 9 22:27 -5 17
W L L L W
11 18 3 6 9 17:35 -18 15
L W D W L
12 18 0 5 13 9:39 -30 5
L D L L L
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