FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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Vare Areena

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.8%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
KuPS Win 86.8%
Draw 6.6%
Mariehamn Win 6.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
KuPS1.7
Mariehamn0.77
Recent Form (Last 5)
KuPS KuPS
WWDLW
46 GF / 28 GA
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WLDWL
16 GF / 47 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
0.67
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.96
17
BTTS Yes
10
11
Over 2.5
10
2.11
Shots on Goal
1.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

KuPS KuPS 30 matches
Mariehamn Mariehamn 24 matches
KuPS Statistic Mariehamn
15 Wins 2
10 Draws 7
5 Losses 15
46 Goals For 16
28 Goals Against 47
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.96
17 BTTS Yes 10
24 Over 1.5 21
11 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 5
10 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 13
2.11 Shots On Goal 1.4
4.85 Total Shots 4.3
2.07 Corners 2.2
22.9% Ball Possession 24.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around KuPS's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. KuPS come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. KuPS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 40 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Mariehamn.

KuPS Analysis

KuPS come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 40 points after 19 matches. They have recorded 11 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses, with a 34:17 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on J. Luyeye-Lutumba (2 goals), G. Engvall (1 goals), with creative support from J. Luyeye-Lutumba (1 assists), G. Engvall (1 assists), C. Antwi (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 0 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 8 points from 20 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats with a 11:41 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), A. Stroud (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, KuPS won 9 times, Mariehamn won 2 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:9 from KuPS's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.4%)
Predicted formations: KuPS 4-2-3-1 / Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: KuPS wins 9, draws 4, Mariehamn wins 2
Last matches: KuPS
20.08.26
UEF
KuPS
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
16.08.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
13.08.26
UEF
KuPS
Universitatea Craiova
1
2
L
09.08.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
1
1
D
06.08.26
UEF
KuPS
Universitatea Craiova
1
1
D
01.08.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
28.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Sabah FA
0
2
L
25.07.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
3
1
W
21.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Sabah FA
0
1
L
18.07.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
2
0
W
14.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
3
L
07.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
4
0
W
23.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
4
3
W
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
Last matches: Mariehamn
15.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
2
0
W
09.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
0
2
L
01.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
0
3
L
25.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
H2H: KuPS vs Mariehamn
16.05.26
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
14.03.26
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
18.06.25
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
0
L
23.04.25
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
4
1
W
25.08.24
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
3
0
W
16.06.24
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
3
W
13.04.24
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
2
2
D
05.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
27.06.23
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
0
1
L
30.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
W
14.08.22
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
08.05.22
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
05.09.21
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
1
W
14.05.21
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
27.09.20
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
W
Last matches: KuPS
09.08.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
1
1
D
06.08.26
UEF
KuPS
Universitatea Craiova
1
1
D
28.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Sabah FA
0
2
L
25.07.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
3
1
W
14.07.26
UEF
KuPS
Vardar Skopje
2
3
L
23.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
4
3
W
30.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
3
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
26.04.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
3
2
W
11.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
21.03.26
Fri
KuPS
JIPPO
1
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
19.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
2
L
11.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Lausanne
0
0
D
06.11.25
UEF
KuPS
Slovan Bratislava
3
1
W
02.10.25
UEF
KuPS
Drita
1
1
D
28.08.25
UEF
KuPS
FC Midtjylland
0
2
L
H2H at home: KuPS
14.03.26
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
23.04.25
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
4
1
W
25.08.24
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
3
0
W
27.06.23
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
0
1
L
14.08.22
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
0
W
14.05.21
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
Last matches: Mariehamn
09.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
0
2
L
01.08.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
0
3
L
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
H2H away: Mariehamn
14.03.26
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
L
23.04.25
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
4
1
L
25.08.24
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
3
0
L
27.06.23
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
0
1
W
14.08.22
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
0
L
14.05.21
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
L

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
KuPS Home
20 12 7 1 36:18 18 43
W D W W W
2 20 10 8 2 28:16 12 38
W D W L D
3 20 10 4 6 32:23 9 34
W W L W W
4 20 9 5 6 32:26 6 32
W D L W W
5 20 8 6 6 28:21 7 30
L W L L L
6 20 9 3 8 24:25 -1 30
L L W D L
7 20 8 5 7 27:22 5 29
W D W L L
8 20 7 5 8 23:18 5 26
L D W L W
9 20 7 4 9 33:34 -1 25
L W L W W
10 20 4 6 10 24:31 -7 18
L D W L L
11 20 3 6 11 18:41 -23 15
L L L W D
12 20 1 5 14 11:41 -30 8
W L L D L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)