UKRAINE PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Girnyk
Referee: O. Derevinskyi
Kryvbas KR
Match Timeline
Karpaty
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
16'
M. Sapuga ↔ Edson Fernando
Karpaty
🟨
30'
Edson Fernando
Karpaty
32'
A. Seck · Assist: J. Jurcec
Kryvbas KR
🟨
44'
Joseph Jones
Kryvbas KR
🟨
59'
Shakh Artur
Karpaty
🔄
60'
O. Sych ↔ D. Miroshnichenko
Karpaty
🔄
60'
A. Shakh ↔ V. Rubchynskyi
Karpaty
🔄
68'
A. Seck ↔ V. Mulyk
Kryvbas KR
🔄
68'
B. Lin ↔ G. Herbert
Kryvbas KR
🔄
80'
↔ Eriki
Karpaty
🔄
80'
Y. Karabin ↔ I. Kvasnytsya
Karpaty
🟨
89'
Gleiker Mendoza
Kryvbas KR
🔄
89'
G. Mendoza ↔ Thiago Borges
Kryvbas KR
🟨
90+3'
Oleksandr Kemkin
Kryvbas KR
🟨
90+1'
Vitaliy Kholod
Karpaty

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 89.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 40.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
89.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
40.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
74.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kryvbas KR Win 45.3%
Draw 10.4%
Karpaty Win 44.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kryvbas KR1.46
Karpaty1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kryvbas KR Kryvbas KR
WWDLW
46 GF / 41 GA
Karpaty Karpaty
WLDWL
35 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.77
Average Goals Scored
1.35
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1
15
BTTS Yes
9
18
Over 2.5
10
3.3
Shots on Goal
3.04

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kryvbas KR Kryvbas KR 26 matches
Karpaty Karpaty 26 matches
Kryvbas KR Statistic Karpaty
11 Wins 9
8 Draws 10
7 Losses 7
46 Goals For 35
41 Goals Against 26
1.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.35
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1
15 BTTS Yes 9
21 Over 1.5 17
18 Over 2.5 10
10 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 13
8 Failed To Score 8
3.3 Shots On Goal 3.04
7.91 Total Shots 7.96
3.7 Corners 2.54
33.1% Ball Possession 30.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Karpaty.

Kryvbas KR Analysis

From their first 26 matches, Kryvbas KR have collected 41 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 11 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 46:41 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through G. Mendoza (10 goals), C. Paraco (8 goals), M. Zaderaka (7 goals), with creative support from G. Mendoza (9 assists), Yehor Tverdokhlib (7 assists), Jan Jurčec (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 7 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Karpaty Analysis

Karpaty sit 9 with 37 points after 26 league matches. The record of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 35:26 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Bruninho (7 goals), Igor Krasnopir (6 goals), Yan Kostenko (5 goals), with creative support from Bruninho (3 assists), Igor Krasnopir (3 assists), Jean Pedroso (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Kryvbas KR won 2 times, Karpaty won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:5 from Kryvbas KR's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.6 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: Kryvbas KR 4-1-4-1 / Karpaty 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Kryvbas KR wins 2, draws 0, Karpaty wins 3

Lineups

Kryvbas KR
Formation
Karpaty
O. Kemkin
O. Kemkin
J. Jurcec
🎯
J. Jurcec
V. Vilivald
V. Vilivald
J. Jones
J. Jones
A. Bekavac
A. Bekavac
M. Zaderaka
M. Zaderaka
A. Araujo
A. Araujo
Y. Shevchenko Volodymyrovych
Y. Shevchenko Volodymyrovych
B. Lin
B. Lin
A. Seck
A. Seck
G. Mendoza
G. Mendoza
N. Domchak
N. Domchak
O. Sych
O. Sych
V. Baboglo
V. Baboglo
V. Kholod
V. Kholod
R. Lyakh
R. Lyakh
A. Chachua
A. Chachua
M. Sapuga
M. Sapuga
A. Shakh
A. Shakh
X. Alkain
X. Alkain
Y. Karabin
Y. Karabin
Y. Kostenko
Y. Kostenko
Kryvbas KR 4-3-3
Starting XI
12
O. Kemkin
🟨 90+3'
G
2
J. Jurcec
🎯 32'
D
4
V. Vilivald
D
15
J. Jones
🟨 44'
D
5
A. Bekavac
D
94
M. Zaderaka
M
6
A. Araujo
M
8
Y. Shevchenko Volodymyrovych
M
18
B. Lin
↓ 68'
M
14
A. Seck
⚽ 32' ↓ 68'
M
7
G. Mendoza
↓ 89' 🟨 89'
M
Substitutes
30
V. Makhankov
G
1
B. Khoma
G
19
Y. Mayakov
D
55
Y. Dibango
D
21
O. Kamensky
M
24
V. Mulyk
↑ 68'
F
28
J. Maya
M
20
M. Bodnar
F
25
T. Butenko
F
16
Thiago Borges
↑ 89'
D
10
G. Herbert
↑ 68'
F
9
C. Paraco
F
Karpaty 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
N. Domchak
G
77
O. Sych
↓ 60'
D
4
V. Baboglo
D
44
V. Kholod
🟨 90+1'
D
73
R. Lyakh
D
8
A. Chachua
M
20
M. Sapuga
↓ 16'
M
33
A. Shakh
↓ 60' 🟨 59'
M
70
X. Alkain
M
19
Y. Karabin
↓ 80'
M
26
Y. Kostenko
M
Substitutes
30
A. Klishchuk
G
80
R. Mysak
G
3
V. Adamyuk
D
55
T. Stetskov
D
5
A. Buleza
D
11
D. Miroshnichenko
↑ 60'
D
35
Edson Fernando
↑ 16' 🟨 30'
M
18
Eriki
↑ 80'
M
15
V. Rubchynskyi
↑ 60'
M
14
I. Kvasnytsya
↑ 80'
M
16
I. Chaban
M
Last matches: Kryvbas KR
14.07.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Gent
2
1
W
11.07.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Zulte Waregem
1
2
L
07.07.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Lommel United
2
4
L
01.07.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Chornomorets
1
2
L
27.06.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Inhulets
1
2
L
23.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Oleksandria
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
3
L
12.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Veres Rivne
3
1
W
01.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
SK Poltava
3
3
D
26.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Dynamo Kyiv
5
6
L
19.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Ruh Lviv
3
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Kudrivka
2
1
W
05.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
LNZ Cherkasy
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Polessya
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Obolon'-Brovar
0
0
D
01.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Zorya Luhansk
3
1
W
21.02.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
0
0
D
12.02.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Sogndal
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
Last matches: Karpaty
25.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Veres Rivne
5
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
4
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0
0
D
11.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Bravo
1
0
W
09.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
CFR 1907 Cluj
0
1
L
03.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Nyva Ternopil
2
1
W
02.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Yarud Mariupol'
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Veres Rivne
2
0
W
12.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2
2
D
02.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Ruh Lviv
3
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Oleksandria
2
0
W
04.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Dynamo Kyiv
1
0
W
22.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Obolon'-Brovar
4
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
SK Poltava
4
0
W
08.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kudrivka
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kolos Kovalivka
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pre
Karpaty
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
3
L
H2H: Kryvbas KR vs Karpaty
08.05.26
H2H
Kryvbas KR
Karpaty
1
0
W
08.11.25
H2H
Karpaty
Kryvbas KR
1
0
L
14.12.24
H2H
Kryvbas KR
Karpaty
2
0
W
11.08.24
H2H
Karpaty
Kryvbas KR
3
0
L
09.07.23
H2H
Hirnyk
Karpaty
0
1
W
Last matches: Kryvbas KR
14.07.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Gent
2
1
W
07.07.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Lommel United
2
4
L
27.06.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Inhulets
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
3
L
26.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Dynamo Kyiv
5
6
L
19.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Ruh Lviv
3
0
W
05.04.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
LNZ Cherkasy
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Zorya Luhansk
3
1
W
05.02.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Brentford U21
0
0
D
24.01.26
Fri
Kryvbas KR
Daejeon Citizen
3
3
D
13.12.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Kolos Kovalivka
1
1
D
07.12.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Oleksandria
3
0
W
23.11.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Veres Rivne
2
2
D
01.11.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
SK Poltava
2
2
D
05.10.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Kudrivka
3
1
W
14.09.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Polessya
0
1
L
30.08.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Obolon'-Brovar
2
1
W
09.08.25
Pre
Kryvbas KR
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2
0
W
H2H at home: Kryvbas KR
08.05.26
H2H
Kryvbas KR
Karpaty
1
0
W
14.12.24
H2H
Kryvbas KR
Karpaty
2
0
W
Last matches: Karpaty
17.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0
0
D
11.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Bravo
1
0
W
09.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
CFR 1907 Cluj
0
1
L
12.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Ruh Lviv
3
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
0
D
04.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Dynamo Kyiv
1
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
SK Poltava
4
0
W
22.02.26
Pre
Karpaty
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
3
L
13.12.25
Pre
Karpaty
Polessya
2
3
L
05.12.25
Pre
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pre
Karpaty
Veres Rivne
0
0
D
03.11.25
Pre
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
1
0
W
04.10.25
Pre
Karpaty
Oleksandria
2
0
W
22.09.25
Pre
Karpaty
Obolon'-Brovar
2
0
W
29.08.25
Pre
Karpaty
Kudrivka
2
2
D
16.08.25
Pre
Karpaty
Kolos Kovalivka
1
1
D
H2H away: Karpaty
08.05.26
H2H
Kryvbas KR
Karpaty
1
0
L
14.12.24
H2H
Kryvbas KR
Karpaty
2
0
L
09.07.23
H2H
Hirnyk
Karpaty
0
1
W

Standings

Premier League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 6 2 71:21 50 72
L W W W W
2 30 18 6 6 39:17 22 60
W L W D D
3 30 18 5 7 51:21 30 59
W D L W W
4 30 17 6 7 66:36 30 57
W W W D L
5 30 13 12 5 36:19 17 51
W D D D L
6 30 13 10 7 30:25 5 49
W L L W W
7 30 13 9 8 53:46 7 48
D L W W D
8 30 12 10 8 42:36 6 46
W D W D W
9 30 10 11 9 40:31 9 41
L W D L D
10 30 8 8 14 36:45 -9 32
D D W D D
11 30 7 10 13 26:40 -14 31
L L L D D
12 30 7 10 13 28:49 -21 31
L W L D D
13 30 7 7 16 32:48 -16 28
L W W L D
14 30 6 3 21 20:51 -31 21
L L L D L
15 30 3 8 19 24:58 -34 17
D W L L L
16 30 2 7 21 23:74 -51 13
D L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Persha Liga