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RUSSIA › PREMIER LEAGUE
10.10.2026 14:30
Solidarnost Samara Arena
Referee: Nikita Novikov

Krylia Sovetov vs Spartak Moscow Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45.8%
Odds 1.68
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45.8%
1.68 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.68 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
81.1%
1.26 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
4.45 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.90 ▥
Probability Distribution
Krylia Sovetov Win 38.1%
Draw 16.1%
Spartak Moscow Win 45.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Krylia Sovetov1.36
Spartak Moscow1.66
Recent Form (Last 5)
Krylia Sovetov Krylia Sovetov
WWDLW
36 GF / 33 GA
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow
WLDWL
31 GF / 15 GA
Key Stats
1.71
Average Goals Scored
1.72
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
0.83
13
BTTS Yes
9
13
Over 2.5
9
5.22
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Krylia Sovetov Krylia Sovetov 21 matches
Spartak Moscow Spartak Moscow 18 matches
Krylia Sovetov Statistic Spartak Moscow
7 Wins 12
6 Draws 3
8 Losses 3
36 Goals For 31
33 Goals Against 15
1.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.72
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 0.83
13 BTTS Yes 9
18 Over 1.5 14
13 Over 2.5 9
8 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 2
5.22 Shots On Goal 5
13.22 Total Shots 15
3.11 Corners 6.78
46.7% Ball Possession 63.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Spartak Moscow's more proactive style and Krylia Sovetov's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Spartak Moscow carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 19 points while Krylia Sovetov sit 9 on 11, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Spartak Moscow.

Krylia Sovetov Analysis

Krylia Sovetov are currently 9 in the standings with 11 points from 9 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, while the 13:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Rahmanović (3 goals), I. Oleynikov (1 goals), M. Vityugov (1 goals), with creative support from I. Oleynikov (3 assists), V. Shitov (2 assists), S. Babkin (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Spartak Moscow Analysis

Spartak Moscow approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 19 points after 9 outings. The return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 defeats, together with goals at 16:7, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Ugalde (3 goals), P. Solari (2 goals), R. Zobnin (1 goals), with creative support from Marquinhos (4 assists), D. Denisov (1 assists), I. Dmitriev (1 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Krylia Sovetov won 4 times, Spartak Moscow won 11 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:31 from Krylia Sovetov's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.9%)
Predicted formations: Krylia Sovetov 4-2-3-1 / Spartak Moscow 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Krylia Sovetov 0, Spartak Moscow 3
H2H summary: Krylia Sovetov wins 4, draws 0, Spartak Moscow wins 11

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 6 3 0 14:7 7 21
D D D W W
2 9 6 1 2 14:8 6 19
W W W W W
3 9 5 4 0 15:9 6 19
W D W D W
4 9 6 1 2 16:7 9 19
W W L D W
5 9 6 0 3 19:9 10 18
W W L W L
6 9 2 6 1 12:11 1 12
D D D W D
7 9 4 0 5 15:16 -1 12
L L W L L
8 9 3 2 4 14:12 2 11
L D L W D
9 9 2 5 2 13:14 -1 11
D W D D W
10 9 2 4 3 13:13 0 10
L W D D W
11 9 1 6 2 7:10 -3 9
D L D D D
12 9 2 2 5 10:17 -7 8
L L W L L
13 9 1 5 3 11:18 -7 8
W D D D L
14 9 1 4 4 8:11 -3 7
D L W L L
15 9 1 2 6 10:22 -12 5
D L L L L
16 9 0 3 6 6:13 -7 3
L D L L D
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - FNL