POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
19.09.2026 12:45
Exbud Arena
Referee: Bartosz Frankowski, Poland
Korona Kielce
Match Timeline
Raków Częstochowa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
7'
Kamil Jakubczyk
Korona Kielce
VAR
18'
Wiktor Długosz
Korona Kielce
⚽
20'
M. Stepinski
Korona Kielce
⚽
33'
C. Mena · Assist: W. Dlugosz
Korona Kielce
🟨
56'
Tomasz Pieńko
Raków Częstochowa
⚽
58'
L. Diaby-Fadiga · Assist: O. Repka
Raków Częstochowa
⚽
62'
M. Stepinski
Korona Kielce
🔄
67'
A. Brorsson ↔ B. Mircetic
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
67'
P. Makuch ↔ A. Basse
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
68'
T. Pienko ↔ M. Perovic
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
70'
W. Dlugosz ↔ N. Barczak
Korona Kielce
🔄
70'
C. Mena ↔ M. Fassbender
Korona Kielce
🔄
80'
M. Stepinski ↔ D. Bak
Korona Kielce
🔄
80'
M. Bulat ↔ A. Molnar
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
80'
M. Emreli ↔ I. Brusberg
Raków Częstochowa
⚽
82'
B. Mircetic
Raków Częstochowa
🟨
90+1'
Morgan Fassbender
Korona Kielce
🟨
90+4'
Bogdan Mirčetić
Raków Częstochowa
🔄
90+2'
O. Lingr ↔ S. Gustafson
Korona Kielce

Korona Kielce vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 74.7%
Odds 1.36
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.78
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
74.7%
1.36 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.67 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.78 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.6%
1.26 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.60 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Korona Kielce Win 52.1%
Draw 22.7%
Raków Częstochowa Win 25.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Korona Kielce1.35
Raków Częstochowa1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Korona Kielce Korona Kielce
WWDLW
19 GF / 11 GA
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa
WLDWL
47 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.19
Average Goals Scored
1.81
0.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
6
BTTS Yes
20
4
Over 2.5
18
3.63
Shots on Goal
3.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Korona Kielce Korona Kielce 16 matches
Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa 26 matches
Korona Kielce Statistic Raków Częstochowa
7 Wins 9
6 Draws 6
3 Losses 11
19 Goals For 47
11 Goals Against 41
1.19 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
0.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
6 BTTS Yes 20
11 Over 1.5 23
4 Over 2.5 18
2 Over 3.5 11
7 Clean Sheets 5
6 Failed To Score 2
3.63 Shots On Goal 3.71
12.5 Total Shots 9.86
4.25 Corners 3.86
48% Ball Possession 42%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Korona Kielce's more proactive style and Raków Częstochowa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Raków Częstochowa. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Korona Kielce expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Raków Częstochowa in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Raków Częstochowa having the stronger overall control. Korona Kielce arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 9 with 9 points compared to Raków Częstochowa in 18 on 3, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Raków Częstochowa arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Korona Kielce Analysis

Korona Kielce sit 9 with 9 points after 6 league matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 7:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Stępiński (3 goals), M. Faßbender (1 goals), O. Lingr (1 goals), with creative support from W. Długosz (3 assists), M. Remacle (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Raków Częstochowa Analysis

Raków Częstochowa sit 18 with 3 points after 7 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 8:15, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through P. Makuch (4 goals), M. Emreli (2 goals), J. Jendryka (1 goals), with creative support from V. Kochergin (2 assists), M. Emreli (1 assists), Jean Carlos (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Korona Kielce won 3 times, Raków Częstochowa won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:18 from Korona Kielce's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.17 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.3%)
Predicted formations: Korona Kielce 4-2-3-1 / Raków Częstochowa 3-4-3
H2H summary: Korona Kielce wins 3, draws 2, Raków Częstochowa wins 7

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 1 1 16:8 8 22
D W W W W
2 9 5 4 0 19:8 11 19
W D W D D
3 8 6 1 1 17:7 10 19
W L W W W
4 9 5 2 2 17:12 5 17
W W D W D
5 8 4 3 1 12:6 6 15
W W D D D
6 9 4 3 2 12:10 2 15
W L W D W
7 9 4 3 2 11:10 1 15
L W W D D
8 9 4 1 4 16:15 1 13
L W W W D
9 8 4 0 4 16:13 3 12
W L L W W
10 8 4 0 4 12:13 -1 12
L L W L W
11 8 3 2 3 9:12 -3 11
W W D L L
12 9 1 6 2 13:13 0 9
D D D L D
13 9 2 2 5 9:14 -5 8
L L L L W
14 9 2 2 5 7:20 -13 8
L L D W D
15 9 1 3 5 11:15 -4 6
L L L D D
16 9 1 3 5 9:15 -6 6
D L L L D
17 8 1 2 5 11:17 -6 5
D L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 12:21 -9 3
L L W L L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation