TURKEY SüPER LIG
--.--.---- --:--
Turka Arac Muayene Kocaeli Stadyumu
Referee: A. D. Kayatepe
Kocaelispor
Match Timeline
Fatih Karagümrük
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
39'
Show
Kocaelispor
🔄
46'
A. Oguz ↔ R. Rivas
Kocaelispor
🔄
46'
J. Nonge ↔ H. Keita
Kocaelispor
🔄
59'
M. Kranevitter ↔ D. Verde
Fatih Karagümrük
🔄
61'
C. Keles ↔ T. Bingol
Kocaelispor
🔄
69'
Serginho ↔ A. Cinar
Fatih Karagümrük
70'
A. Cinar · Assist: D. Verde
Fatih Karagümrük
🔄
73'
M. Susoho ↔ D. Churlinov
Kocaelispor
🟨
87'
Tayfur Bingöl
Kocaelispor
🔄
88'
Show ↔ E. Narin
Kocaelispor
🔄
90+1'
S. Babicka ↔ B. Kalayci
Fatih Karagümrük

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.2%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.2%
-
BTTS BTTS No
50%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.9%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
72.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kocaelispor Win 90.2%
Draw 0%
Fatih Karagümrük Win 9.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kocaelispor1.15
Fatih Karagümrük0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
WWDLW
26 GF / 36 GA
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
WLDWL
28 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
0.88
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.66
13
BTTS Yes
15
9
Over 2.5
15
2.97
Shots on Goal
3.28

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 32 matches
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük 32 matches
Kocaelispor Statistic Fatih Karagümrük
9 Wins 6
10 Draws 6
13 Losses 20
26 Goals For 28
36 Goals Against 53
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.66
13 BTTS Yes 15
19 Over 1.5 25
9 Over 2.5 15
4 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 6
13 Failed To Score 13
2.97 Shots On Goal 3.28
10.25 Total Shots 10.66
4.22 Corners 3.69
48.9% Ball Possession 45.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Fatih Karagümrük. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Kocaelispor arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 10 with 37 points compared to Fatih Karagümrük in 18 on 24, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kocaelispor expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Fatih Karagümrük in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fatih Karagümrük having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Kocaelispor Analysis

Kocaelispor sit 10 with 37 points after 32 league matches. The record of 9 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 26:36 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Petkovic (7 goals), Serdar Dursun (6 goals), D. Agyei (5 goals), with creative support from D. Churlinov (3 assists), Serdar Dursun (2 assists), Tayfur Bingöl (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fatih Karagümrük Analysis

Fatih Karagümrük approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 24 points from 32 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 20 losses, together with goals at 28:53, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Serginho (8 goals), D. D. Fofana (6 goals), A. Cinar (3 goals), with creative support from Tiago Çukur (3 assists), D. Johnson (3 assists), D. Verde (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Kocaelispor won 1 times, Fatih Karagümrük won 2 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:8 from Kocaelispor's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Kocaelispor 4-3-3 / Fatih Karagümrük 4-4-2
Missing players: Kocaelispor 4, Fatih Karagümrük 4
H2H summary: Kocaelispor wins 1, draws 3, Fatih Karagümrük wins 2
Stats
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük Fatih Karagümrük
Shots on Goal
0
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
8
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
1
3 Corner Kicks 3
13 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 0
65% Ball Possession 35%
8 Total Shots 6
0 Shots on Goal 1
8 Shots off Goal 4
0 Blocked Shots 1
4 Shots insidebox 1
4 Shots outsidebox 5
0 Goalkeeper Saves 0
568 Total passes 303
498 Passes accurate 228
0.34 expected_goals 0.31
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Kocaelispor
Formation
Fatih Karagümrük
S. Oztasdelen
S. Oztasdelen
A. Oguz
A. Oguz
A. Dijksteel
A. Dijksteel
H. Smolcic
H. Smolcic
M. Haidara
M. Haidara
M. Susoho
M. Susoho
Show
Show
J. Nonge
J. Nonge
C. Keles
C. Keles
S. Dursun
S. Dursun
D. Agyei
D. Agyei
F. Beklevic
F. Beklevic
R. Esgaio
R. Esgaio
D. Biraschi
D. Biraschi
I. Lichnovsky
I. Lichnovsky
C. Kurukalip
C. Kurukalip
M. Kranevitter
M. Kranevitter
B. Elmaz
B. Elmaz
Serginho
Serginho
B. Ozcan
B. Ozcan
S. Babicka
S. Babicka
T. Cukur
T. Cukur
Kocaelispor 4-3-3
Starting XI
83
S. Oztasdelen
G
22
A. Oguz
↓ 46'
D
2
A. Dijksteel
D
6
H. Smolcic
D
21
M. Haidara
D
20
M. Susoho
↓ 73'
M
14
Show
↓ 88' 🟨 39'
M
98
J. Nonge
↓ 46'
M
70
C. Keles
↓ 61'
F
19
S. Dursun
F
7
D. Agyei
F
Substitutes
35
G. Degirmenci
G
10
K. Linetty
M
99
R. Rivas
↑ 46'
F
18
F. Gedik
F
75
T. Bingol
↑ 61' 🟨 87'
D
23
S. Yalcin
M
17
D. Churlinov
↑ 73'
F
3
M. Cinan
D
8
H. Keita
↑ 46'
M
94
E. Narin
↑ 88'
M
Fatih Karagümrük 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
99
F. Beklevic
G
47
R. Esgaio
D
4
D. Biraschi
D
3
I. Lichnovsky
D
33
C. Kurukalip
D
5
M. Kranevitter
↓ 59'
M
6
B. Elmaz
M
70
Serginho
↓ 69'
M
8
B. Ozcan
M
80
S. Babicka
↓ 90+1'
M
21
T. Cukur
F
Substitutes
98
B. Evli
G
22
F. Kurucuk
D
72
B. Kalayci
↑ 90+1'
F
24
B. Ersoy
M
20
T. Kalpakli
F
32
M. Kadioglu
D
23
S. Larsson
M
10
D. Verde
🎯 70' ↑ 59'
F
94
A. Cinar
⚽ 70' ↑ 69'
D
88
T. Ahmed
F
Last matches: Kocaelispor
17.05.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Antalyaspor
0
1
L
03.05.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Kasımpaşa
1
1
D
26.04.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
0
1
L
18.04.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Göztepe
1
1
D
12.04.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Galatasaray
1
1
D
06.04.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Başakşehir
0
0
D
18.03.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Alanyaspor
0
5
L
14.03.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Konyaspor
1
2
L
09.03.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Eyüpspor
1
0
W
28.02.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Beşiktaş
0
1
L
20.02.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Rizespor
0
2
L
15.02.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Gaziantep FK
3
0
W
09.02.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Kayserispor
2
1
W
02.02.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Fenerbahçe
0
2
L
24.01.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Samsunspor
0
0
D
18.01.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Trabzonspor
1
2
L
07.01.26
Fri
Kocaelispor
Kasımpaşa
0
2
L
19.12.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Antalyaspor
2
1
W
14.12.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
1
1
D
07.12.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Kasımpaşa
0
0
D
Last matches: Fatih Karagümrük
16.05.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Alanyaspor
2
1
W
03.05.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1
0
W
27.04.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Beşiktaş
0
0
D
18.04.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
1
2
L
12.04.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Konyaspor
0
3
L
05.04.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Rizespor
2
1
W
19.03.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Kayserispor
0
1
L
13.03.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Fenerbahçe
2
0
W
08.03.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Gaziantep FK
1
1
D
27.02.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Trabzonspor
1
3
L
22.02.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Samsunspor
0
0
D
16.02.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Kasımpaşa
2
3
L
07.02.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Antalyaspor
1
0
W
31.01.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Göztepe
1
2
L
24.01.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Galatasaray
1
3
L
17.01.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Başakşehir
1
2
L
09.01.26
Fri
Fatih Karagümrük
Petrolul Ploiesti
1
2
L
06.01.26
Fri
Fatih Karagümrük
Universitatea Cluj
2
1
W
21.12.25
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Alanyaspor
0
2
L
14.12.25
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Kocaelispor
1
1
D
H2H: Kocaelispor vs Fatih Karagümrük
09.05.26
H2H
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
0
1
L
14.12.25
H2H
Fatih Karagümrük
Kocaelispor
1
1
D
21.07.25
H2H
Fatih Karagümrük
Kocaelispor
0
0
D
16.03.25
H2H
Fatih Karagümrük
Kocaelispor
1
1
D
02.11.24
H2H
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
2
1
W
13.11.21
H2H
Fatih Karagümrük
Kocaelispor
4
3
L
Last matches: Kocaelispor
18.04.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Göztepe
1
1
D
06.04.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Başakşehir
0
0
D
14.03.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Konyaspor
1
2
L
28.02.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Beşiktaş
0
1
L
15.02.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Gaziantep FK
3
0
W
02.02.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Fenerbahçe
0
2
L
18.01.26
Süp
Kocaelispor
Trabzonspor
1
2
L
19.12.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Antalyaspor
2
1
W
07.12.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Kasımpaşa
0
0
D
28.11.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1
0
W
09.11.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Galatasaray
1
0
W
25.10.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Alanyaspor
2
0
W
04.10.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Eyüpspor
1
0
W
21.09.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Rizespor
1
1
D
30.08.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Kayserispor
1
1
D
16.08.25
Süp
Kocaelispor
Samsunspor
0
1
L
H2H at home: Kocaelispor
09.05.26
H2H
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
0
1
L
02.11.24
H2H
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
2
1
W
Last matches: Fatih Karagümrük
27.04.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Beşiktaş
0
0
D
12.04.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Konyaspor
0
3
L
19.03.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Kayserispor
0
1
L
08.03.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Gaziantep FK
1
1
D
27.02.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Trabzonspor
1
3
L
16.02.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Kasımpaşa
2
3
L
31.01.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Göztepe
1
2
L
17.01.26
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Başakşehir
1
2
L
21.12.25
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Alanyaspor
0
2
L
07.12.25
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
0
3
L
22.11.25
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Eyüpspor
1
1
D
03.11.25
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Rizespor
0
1
L
19.10.25
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Fenerbahçe
1
2
L
21.09.25
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Samsunspor
2
3
L
30.08.25
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Antalyaspor
2
1
W
15.08.25
Süp
Fatih Karagümrük
Galatasaray
0
3
L
H2H away: Fatih Karagümrük
09.05.26
H2H
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
0
1
W
02.11.24
H2H
Kocaelispor
Fatih Karagümrük
2
1
L

Standings

Super Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 5 5 77:30 47 77
L W L W W
2 34 21 11 2 77:37 40 74
D W W L D
3 34 20 9 5 61:39 22 69
L W D L D
4 34 17 9 8 59:40 19 60
D L W D L
5 34 16 9 9 58:35 23 57
W W L W D
6 34 14 13 7 42:32 10 55
L W D W D
7 34 13 12 9 46:45 1 51
W L W W W
8 34 10 11 13 46:52 -6 41
D L W L D
9 34 10 10 14 43:50 -7 40
L L L W W
10 34 9 10 15 26:38 -12 37
L L D L D
11 34 7 16 11 41:41 0 37
L W D L L
12 34 9 10 15 43:58 -15 37
L L L L W
13 34 8 11 15 33:49 -16 35
W L D L W
14 34 9 7 18 36:47 -11 34
W W L W L
15 34 8 9 17 33:48 -15 33
D W D W W
16 34 8 8 18 33:55 -22 32
W L D L L
17 34 6 12 16 27:62 -35 30
W L D W L
18 34 8 6 20 31:54 -23 30
W W W D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation

Missing Players

Kocaelispor 4 missing
-
A. Jovanovic
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
B. Balogh
Questionable Health problems
OUT
-
B. Petkovic
Questionable Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
M. Wieteska
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Fatih Karagümrük 4 missing
-
J. Camacho
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
D. Verde
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
Kone
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
A. Sivri
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT