UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
The Royals Park
Kitara
Match Timeline
SC Villa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
P. Kaddu
Kitara
45'
Y. Sibira
Kitara

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 36.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 20.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
36.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
20.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kitara Win 54.1%
Draw 10.1%
SC Villa Win 35.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kitara1.03
SC Villa1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kitara Kitara
WWDLW
33 GF / 15 GA
SC Villa SC Villa
WLDWL
35 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.38
Average Goals Scored
1.46
0.63
Average Goals Conceded
0.5
8
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kitara Kitara 24 matches
SC Villa SC Villa 24 matches
Kitara Statistic SC Villa
14 Wins 14
6 Draws 6
4 Losses 4
33 Goals For 35
15 Goals Against 12
1.38 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
0.63 Avg Goals Conceded 0.5
8 BTTS Yes 8
12 Over 1.5 13
7 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 2
12 Clean Sheets 14
6 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward SC Villa. SC Villa look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward SC Villa having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Kitara Analysis

Kitara come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 51 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 15 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses, while the 36:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on P. Kaddu (8 goals), G. Ssenkaaba (4 goals), G. Wahab (4 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

SC Villa Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 51 points from 25 games, SC Villa bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. With 15 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 38:12, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by F. Ssebuufu (8 goals), N. Yiga (7 goals), A. Ssemakula (3 goals), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Kitara won 3 times, SC Villa won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:6 from Kitara's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
H2H summary: Kitara wins 3, draws 2, SC Villa wins 2
Last matches: Kitara
23.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
19.05.26
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
2
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Lugazi
2
1
W
22.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D
17.04.26
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Vipers
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
1
0
W
28.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
2
1
W
18.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
12.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
2
0
W
Last matches: SC Villa
23.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
UPDF
2
1
W
20.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
NEC
4
1
W
13.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
22.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
1
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Police
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
0
0
D
19.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
2
0
W
14.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
URA
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
6
1
W
23.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
08.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
1
0
W
17.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Calvary
1
0
W
11.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
URA
3
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
0
1
L
H2H: Kitara vs SC Villa
30.04.26
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
W
06.11.25
H2H
SC Villa
Kitara
1
0
L
26.04.25
H2H
SC Villa
Kitara
0
0
D
07.01.25
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
1
0
W
09.02.24
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
1
1
D
15.09.23
H2H
SC Villa
Kitara
1
2
W
26.06.21
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
0
0
D
20.02.21
H2H
SC Villa
Kitara
3
2
L
Last matches: Kitara
23.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
09.05.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
1
D
28.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
1
0
W
07.01.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
2
1
W
12.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
2
0
W
20.11.25
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
0
W
30.10.25
Pre
Kitara
Lugazi
4
0
W
24.10.25
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
3
2
W
26.09.25
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
1
1
D
H2H at home: Kitara
30.04.26
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
W
07.01.25
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
1
0
W
09.02.24
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
1
1
D
26.06.21
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
0
0
D
Last matches: SC Villa
20.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
NEC
4
1
W
13.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
3
1
W
22.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Police
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
URA
0
0
D
23.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
08.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
1
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
25.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
UPDF
1
0
W
31.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
3
0
W
04.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
2
L
H2H away: SC Villa
30.04.26
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
L
07.01.25
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
1
0
L
09.02.24
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
1
1
D
26.06.21
H2H
Kitara
SC Villa
0
0
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League