UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
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The Royals Park

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 100%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 59.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
100%
-
BTTS BTTS No
59.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
82.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Kitara Win 100%
Draw 0%
Calvary Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kitara1.45
Calvary0.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kitara Kitara
WWDLW
31 GF / 14 GA
Calvary Calvary
WLDWL
9 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
0.41
0.64
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
7
BTTS Yes
5
6
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kitara Kitara 22 matches
Calvary Calvary 22 matches
Kitara Statistic Calvary
13 Wins 1
5 Draws 6
4 Losses 15
31 Goals For 9
14 Goals Against 33
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 0.41
0.64 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
7 BTTS Yes 5
11 Over 1.5 9
6 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 5
11 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 16
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Kitara's more proactive style and Calvary's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Calvary. Kitara arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 47 points compared to Calvary in 16 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Calvary arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Calvary having the stronger overall control.

Kitara Analysis

Kitara come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 47 points from 23 matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 34:13 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Kaddu (7 goals), G. Ssenkaaba (4 goals), G. Wahab (4 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Calvary Analysis

With 9 points from 23 games and a place of 16, Calvary still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 16 defeats with a 9:36 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on L. Olaboro (4 goals), S. Oriokot (2 goals), E. Ojok (1 goals), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 10 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Kitara won 1 times, Calvary won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from Kitara's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1 (100%)
H2H summary: Kitara wins 1, draws 1, Calvary wins 0
Last matches: Kitara
23.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
19.05.26
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
2
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
0
1
L
30.04.26
Pre
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Lugazi
2
1
W
17.04.26
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
0
1
L
10.04.26
Pre
Kitara
Vipers
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
1
0
W
06.03.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
1
1
D
03.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
1
D
12.02.26
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Calvary
1
0
W
28.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
1
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
3
3
D
07.01.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
2
1
W
18.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
0
1
L
12.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
2
0
W
Last matches: Calvary
23.05.26
Pre
Calvary
NEC
2
0
W
19.05.26
Pre
Calvary
UPDF
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
1
1
D
06.05.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
1
0
W
29.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Calvary
KCCA
1
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Lugazi
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
1
L
10.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Maroons
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
1
5
L
18.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Express
0
0
D
12.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Kitara
0
1
L
27.01.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
0
0
D
21.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
0
2
L
07.01.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Calvary
SC Villa
0
1
L
13.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
1
1
D
09.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
0
D
H2H: Kitara vs Calvary
22.04.26
H2H
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D
31.01.26
H2H
Calvary
Kitara
0
1
W
Last matches: Kitara
23.05.26
Pre
Kitara
Police
2
2
D
09.05.26
Pre
Kitara
NEC
0
1
L
30.04.26
Pre
Kitara
SC Villa
2
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Kitara
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
19.02.26
Pre
Kitara
URA
1
1
D
28.01.26
Pre
Kitara
Express
1
0
W
07.01.26
Pre
Kitara
UPDF
2
1
W
12.12.25
Pre
Kitara
Maroons
2
0
W
20.11.25
Pre
Kitara
BUL
1
0
W
30.10.25
Pre
Kitara
Lugazi
4
0
W
24.10.25
Pre
Kitara
Mbarara City
3
2
W
26.09.25
Pre
Kitara
KCCA
1
1
D
H2H at home: Kitara
22.04.26
H2H
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D
Last matches: Calvary
19.05.26
Pre
Calvary
UPDF
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
Calvary
URA
1
1
D
29.04.26
Pre
Calvary
Entebbe UPPC
0
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
Calvary
Vipers
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Calvary
BUL
1
5
L
12.02.26
Pre
Calvary
Mbarara City
0
1
L
21.01.26
Pre
Calvary
Police
0
2
L
17.12.25
Pre
Calvary
SC Villa
0
1
L
04.12.25
Pre
Calvary
Express
0
4
L
25.11.25
Pre
Calvary
NEC
0
1
L
31.10.25
Pre
Calvary
KCCA
2
4
L
22.10.25
Pre
Calvary
Maroons
0
0
D
04.10.25
Pre
Calvary
Buhimba Saints
0
2
L
26.09.25
Pre
Calvary
Lugazi
1
3
L
H2H away: Calvary
22.04.26
H2H
Kitara
Calvary
0
0
D

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League