SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Rugby Park
Referee: K. Clancy
Kilmarnock
Match Timeline
Dundee Utd
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
20'
R. Deas · Assist: G. Kiltie
Kilmarnock
🟨
28'
Neil Farrugia
Dundee Utd
🔄
46'
N. Clescenco ↔ D. Thompson
Kilmarnock
51'
F. Curtis
Kilmarnock
🔄
60'
M. Watters ↔ V. Sevelj
Dundee Utd
🔄
61'
K. Keresztes ↔ I. Dolcek
Dundee Utd
🔄
63'
B. Anderson ↔ L. Polworth
Kilmarnock
64'
J. Hugill
Kilmarnock
🔄
71'
Z. Sapsford ↔ J. Russell
Dundee Utd
🔄
71'
P. Camara ↔ C. Sibbald
Dundee Utd
🔄
74'
F. Curtis ↔ R. McKenzie
Kilmarnock
🔄
74'
G. Kiltie ↔ K. Magennis
Kilmarnock
🔄
74'
M. Schjonning-Larsen ↔ L. Mayo
Kilmarnock
🔄
86'
N. Farrugia ↔ O. Stirton
Dundee Utd

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
58.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kilmarnock Win 58.6%
Draw 0%
Dundee Utd Win 41.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kilmarnock1.27
Dundee Utd1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
WWDLW
37 GF / 66 GA
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd
WLDWL
54 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.94
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
19
BTTS Yes
22
21
Over 2.5
20
3.71
Shots on Goal
4.34

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 34 matches
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 38 matches
Kilmarnock Statistic Dundee Utd
6 Wins 12
10 Draws 15
18 Losses 11
37 Goals For 54
66 Goals Against 58
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.94 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
19 BTTS Yes 22
28 Over 1.5 33
21 Over 2.5 20
14 Over 3.5 15
7 Clean Sheets 8
10 Failed To Score 10
3.71 Shots On Goal 4.34
11.09 Total Shots 12.63
4.38 Corners 4.21
42.1% Ball Possession 38.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kilmarnock expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Dundee Utd in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dundee Utd having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Dundee Utd.

Kilmarnock Analysis

Placed 5 with 28 points from 34 outings, Kilmarnock continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 6 wins, 10 draws, and 18 defeats, together with a 37:66 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Tyreece John-Jules (8 goals), Bruce Anderson (4 goals), G. Kiltie (4 goals), with creative support from G. Kiltie (4 assists), Tyreece John-Jules (2 assists), Bruce Anderson (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dundee Utd Analysis

Dundee Utd come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 43 points after 34 matches. They have recorded 10 wins, 13 draws, and 11 losses, with a 48:54 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on A. Fatah (8 goals), Zachary Sapsford (8 goals), I. Dolcek (5 goals), with creative support from W. Ferry (6 assists), L. Stephenson (5 assists), A. Fatah (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, which underlines a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kilmarnock won 8 times, Dundee Utd won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:15 from Kilmarnock's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Kilmarnock 4-4-2 / Dundee Utd 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Kilmarnock wins 8, draws 5, Dundee Utd wins 2
Stats
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
9
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
5
4 Corner Kicks 8
13 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 2
42% Ball Possession 58%
11 Total Shots 19
8 Shots on Goal 5
3 Shots off Goal 9
0 Blocked Shots 5
8 Shots insidebox 12
3 Shots outsidebox 7
5 Goalkeeper Saves 5
346 Total passes 468
246 Passes accurate 387
1.98 expected_goals 1.82
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Kilmarnock
Formation
Dundee Utd
M. Stryjek
M. Stryjek
F. Curtis
F. Curtis
G. Stanger
G. Stanger
R. Deas
R. Deas
M. Schjonning-Larsen
M. Schjonning-Larsen
G. Kiltie
🎯
G. Kiltie
T. Lowery
T. Lowery
A. Tshibola
A. Tshibola
J. Hugill
J. Hugill
B. Anderson
B. Anderson
N. Clescenco
N. Clescenco
D. Richards
D. Richards
S. Cleall-Harding
S. Cleall-Harding
R. Graham
R. Graham
K. Keresztes
K. Keresztes
D. Naamo
D. Naamo
P. Camara
P. Camara
E. Agyei
E. Agyei
W. Ferry
W. Ferry
N. Farrugia
N. Farrugia
M. Watters
M. Watters
Z. Sapsford
Z. Sapsford
Kilmarnock 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
M. Stryjek
G
52
F. Curtis
⚽ 51' ↓ 74'
D
14
G. Stanger
D
6
R. Deas
⚽ 20'
D
21
M. Schjonning-Larsen
↓ 74'
D
11
G. Kiltie
🎯 20' ↓ 74'
M
18
T. Lowery
M
36
A. Tshibola
M
44
J. Hugill
⚽ 64'
F
19
B. Anderson
↓ 63'
F
20
N. Clescenco
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
30
K. Wright
G
7
R. McKenzie
↑ 74'
M
31
L. Polworth
↑ 63'
M
3
D. Thompson
↑ 46'
D
16
K. Magennis
↑ 74'
M
5
L. Mayo
↑ 74'
D
4
Z. Williams
D
23
M. Watkins
F
12
D. Watson
M
Dundee Utd 3-4-3
Starting XI
25
D. Richards
G
37
S. Cleall-Harding
D
6
R. Graham
D
23
K. Keresztes
↓ 61'
D
22
D. Naamo
M
8
P. Camara
↓ 71'
M
12
E. Agyei
M
11
W. Ferry
M
20
N. Farrugia
↓ 86' 🟨 28'
F
36
M. Watters
↓ 60'
F
9
Z. Sapsford
↓ 71'
F
Substitutes
31
R. Adams
G
77
J. Russell
↑ 71'
F
14
C. Sibbald
↑ 71'
M
2
R. Strain
D
5
V. Sevelj
↑ 60'
D
10
J. Eskesen
M
19
I. Dolcek
↑ 61'
F
4
I. Iovu
D
34
O. Stirton
↑ 86'
D
Last matches: Kilmarnock
04.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Linfield
3
2
W
01.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Glentoran
4
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
4
1
W
12.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
1
W
09.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
5
L
21.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
4
3
W
04.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
5
L
31.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
3
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
0
4
L
10.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
1
3
L
30.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
Last matches: Dundee Utd
17.05.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Livingston
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
0
2
L
26.04.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Dundee
3
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Livingston
3
2
W
04.04.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Rangers
2
4
L
22.03.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Celtic
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Dundee
2
2
D
03.03.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
0
2
L
24.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Falkirk
3
2
W
04.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
2
3
L
31.01.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Heart Of Midlothian
0
3
L
10.01.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Celtic
0
4
L
03.01.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Dundee
0
1
L
30.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Livingston
3
1
W
27.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
1
1
D
20.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
1
1
D
H2H: Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd
02.05.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
0
W
21.02.26
H2H
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
29.11.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
27.09.25
H2H
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
0
2
W
17.08.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
2
1
W
01.02.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
0
W
07.12.24
H2H
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
28.09.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
3
D
24.05.23
H2H
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
0
3
W
11.02.23
H2H
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
0
1
W
01.02.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
0
W
09.11.22
H2H
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
4
0
L
18.10.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
2
1
W
30.07.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
22.01.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
2
L
Last matches: Kilmarnock
12.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
1
W
11.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
4
3
W
31.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
3
0
W
03.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
1
3
L
20.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
0
1
L
06.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
0
3
L
29.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
22.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
1
3
L
29.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
L
18.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
0
3
L
04.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
2
0
W
14.09.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
1
2
L
23.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
0
0
D
02.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
2
D
H2H at home: Kilmarnock
02.05.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
0
W
29.11.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
17.08.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
2
1
W
01.02.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
0
W
28.09.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
3
D
01.02.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
0
W
18.10.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
2
1
W
30.07.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
22.01.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
2
L
Last matches: Dundee Utd
17.05.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
1
1
D
09.05.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Rangers
2
4
L
15.03.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Dundee
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Falkirk
3
2
W
04.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
2
3
L
10.01.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Celtic
0
4
L
30.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Livingston
3
1
W
27.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
1
1
D
06.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
0
2
L
29.11.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
09.11.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Heart Of Midlothian
1
1
D
29.10.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
0
2
L
18.10.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Rangers
2
2
D
13.09.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
3
3
D
31.08.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Dundee
2
0
W
07.08.25
UEF
Dundee Utd
Rapid Vienna
2
2
D
03.08.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Falkirk
2
2
D
31.07.25
UEF
Dundee Utd
UNA Strassen
1
0
W
H2H away: Dundee Utd
02.05.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
0
L
29.11.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
17.08.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
2
1
L
01.02.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
0
L
28.09.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
3
D
01.02.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
0
L
18.10.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
2
1
L
30.07.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
22.01.22
H2H
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
2
W

Standings

Premiership
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 21 7 5 58:28 30 70
L W D W W
2 33 19 12 2 66:31 35 69
W L L L L
3 33 21 4 8 59:35 24 67
W W W W W
4 33 14 12 7 52:29 23 54
W L D L W
5 33 13 12 8 51:37 14 51
L W W L L
6 33 13 7 13 45:48 -3 46
L L L W L
7 33 9 13 11 45:54 -9 40
D D L L W
8 33 9 6 18 33:48 -15 33
L L W D W
9 33 8 9 16 34:53 -19 33
W L W W L
10 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
W D D W L
11 33 6 10 17 37:65 -28 28
W W W W L
12 33 1 13 19 35:66 -31 16
L D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round