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21.11.2026 15:00
Rugby Park

Kilmarnock vs Aberdeen Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 70.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
70.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Kilmarnock Win 45.5%
Draw 25.3%
Aberdeen Win 29.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kilmarnock1.41
Aberdeen1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
L D L L W
6 GF / 11 GA
Aberdeen Aberdeen
L L L W L
5 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.29
2.07
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
8
BTTS Yes
6
10
Over 2.5
8
3.92
Shots on Goal
3.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 15 matches
Aberdeen Aberdeen 17 matches
Kilmarnock Statistic Aberdeen
4 Wins 6
3 Draws 2
8 Losses 9
20 Goals For 22
31 Goals Against 26
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.29
2.07 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
8 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 11
10 Over 2.5 8
9 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 8
3.92 Shots On Goal 3.33
11.62 Total Shots 13.25
5.15 Corners 6
45% Ball Possession 46.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aberdeen.

Kilmarnock Analysis

With 9 points from 13 games and a place of 12, Kilmarnock still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 13:29 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on G. Kiltie (3 goals), J. Hugill (2 goals), D. Daniels (1 goals), with creative support from J. Hugill (2 assists), T. Lowery (2 assists), J. Brandon (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aberdeen Analysis

With 11 points from 12 games and a place of 11, Aberdeen still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats with a 12:18 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on K. Nisbet (5 goals), C. Ronan (2 goals), A. Mouloua (2 goals), with creative support from K. Nisbet (2 assists), C. Ronan (2 assists), G. Molloy (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kilmarnock won 6 times, Aberdeen won 9 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:18 from Kilmarnock's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (74.8%)
Predicted formations: Kilmarnock 4-2-3-1 / Aberdeen 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Kilmarnock wins 6, draws 0, Aberdeen wins 9

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 10 1 2 28:10 18 31
W L D W W
2 12 8 3 1 21:9 12 27
W D W D W
3 13 6 3 4 20:14 6 21
W W W W W
4 12 6 2 4 26:22 4 20
L D W L W
5 12 5 2 5 18:15 3 17
L W L D W
6 12 4 5 3 17:17 0 17
D D W D W
7 13 4 5 4 17:20 -3 17
W D D L D
8 13 4 2 7 12:22 -10 14
L L D W L
9 13 3 4 6 15:21 -6 13
D W D L L
10 12 3 2 7 15:17 -2 11
W D L L L
11 12 3 2 7 12:18 -6 11
L L L W L
12 13 2 3 8 13:29 -16 9
L D L L W
Promotion - Premiership (Championship Group)
Premiership (Relegation Group)