TURKEY SüPER LIG
03.05.2026 17:00
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan Stadyumu
Referee: Y. Kol
Kasımpaşa
Match Timeline
Kocaelispor
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
A. Benedyczak · Assist: M. Ben Ouanes
Kasımpaşa
23'
D. Agyei · Assist: S. Dursun
Kocaelispor
🔄
57'
J. Nonge ↔ T. Bingol
Kocaelispor
🟨
58'
Ahmet Oğuz
Kocaelispor
🔄
63'
A. Oguz ↔ R. Rivas
Kocaelispor
🔄
89'
D. Agyei ↔ F. Gedik
Kocaelispor
🔄
90'
C. Winck ↔ G. Frimpong
Kasımpaşa

Kasımpaşa vs Kocaelispor Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 75.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
75.4%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
78.3%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kasımpaşa Win 75.4%
Draw 0%
Kocaelispor Win 24.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kasımpaşa1.02
Kocaelispor1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa
WWDLW
29 GF / 45 GA
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor
WLDWL
25 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
0.94
Average Goals Scored
0.81
1.45
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
16
BTTS Yes
12
14
Over 2.5
9
2.65
Shots on Goal
3.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kasımpaşa Kasımpaşa 31 matches
Kocaelispor Kocaelispor 31 matches
Kasımpaşa Statistic Kocaelispor
7 Wins 9
10 Draws 9
14 Losses 13
29 Goals For 25
45 Goals Against 35
0.94 Avg Goals Scored 0.81
1.45 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
16 BTTS Yes 12
22 Over 1.5 18
14 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 10
11 Failed To Score 13
2.65 Shots On Goal 3.03
9.58 Total Shots 10.42
4.23 Corners 4.19
44.6% Ball Possession 49.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kasımpaşa expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Kocaelispor in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kocaelispor having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Kocaelispor. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Kasımpaşa Analysis

So far, Kasımpaşa have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 31 points from 31 matches. The record of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 29:45 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Benedyczak (6 goals), P. Gueye (5 goals), Cláudio Winck (3 goals), with creative support from M. Ben Ouanes (5 assists), İrfan Can Kahveci (3 assists), F. Diabate (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kocaelispor Analysis

So far, Kocaelispor have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 36 points from 31 matches. The record of 9 wins, 9 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 25:35 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through B. Petkovic (7 goals), Serdar Dursun (6 goals), Tayfur Bingöl (5 goals), with creative support from D. Churlinov (3 assists), Tayfur Bingöl (2 assists), H. Keita (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 8 losses fits a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Kasımpaşa won 3 times, Kocaelispor won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:4 from Kasımpaşa's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Kasımpaşa 4-2-3-1 / Kocaelispor 4-3-3
Missing players: Kasımpaşa 4, Kocaelispor 5
H2H summary: Kasımpaşa wins 3, draws 2, Kocaelispor wins 0

Standings

Super Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 5 5 77:30 47 77
L W L W W
2 34 21 11 2 77:37 40 74
D W W L D
3 34 20 9 5 61:39 22 69
L W D L D
4 34 17 9 8 59:40 19 60
D L W D L
5 34 16 9 9 58:35 23 57
W W L W D
6 34 14 13 7 42:32 10 55
L W D W D
7 34 13 12 9 46:45 1 51
W L W W W
8 34 10 11 13 46:52 -6 41
D L W L D
9 34 10 10 14 43:50 -7 40
L L L W W
10 34 9 10 15 26:38 -12 37
L L D L D
11 34 7 16 11 41:41 0 37
L W D L L
12 34 9 10 15 43:58 -15 37
L L L L W
13 34 8 11 15 33:49 -16 35
W L D L W
14 34 9 7 18 36:47 -11 34
W W L W L
15 34 8 9 17 33:48 -15 33
D W D W W
16 34 8 8 18 33:55 -22 32
W L D L L
17 34 6 12 16 27:62 -35 30
W L D W L
18 34 8 6 20 31:54 -23 30
W W W D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation