JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Mercari Stadium
Referee: A. Ikeuchi
Kashima
Match Timeline
Machida Zelvia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
41'
Tete Yengi
Machida Zelvia
🟨
48'
Neta Lavi
Machida Zelvia
50'
Leo Ceara · Assist: G. Shibasaki
Kashima
53'
T. Yengi · Assist: Na Sang-Ho
Machida Zelvia
🟨
57'
Kotaro Hayashi
Machida Zelvia
🔄
62'
A. Cavric ↔ K. Tagawa
Kashima
🔄
62'
K. Chinen ↔ Y. Higuchi
Kashima
🔄
62'
Y. Matsumura ↔ S. Morooka
Kashima
🔄
67'
Erik ↔ K. Sento
Machida Zelvia
🔄
67'
Na Sang-Ho ↔ F. Tokumura
Machida Zelvia
🔄
83'
S. Mizoguchi ↔ R. Ogawa
Kashima
🔄
83'
G. Shibasaki ↔ R. Araki
Kashima
🔄
83'
Y. Nakayama ↔ I. Dresevic
Machida Zelvia
🔄
83'
H. Nakamura ↔ H. Mochizuki
Machida Zelvia
🔄
89'
N. Lavi ↔ H. Shimoda
Machida Zelvia
🟨
90+3'
Hiroyuki Mae
Machida Zelvia

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 62.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
62.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kashima Win 62.9%
Draw 3.1%
Machida Zelvia Win 34%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kashima1.62
Machida Zelvia1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kashima Kashima
WWDLW
25 GF / 10 GA
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia
WLDWL
18 GF / 20 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.38
0.67
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
6
BTTS Yes
8
5
Over 2.5
9
4.08
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kashima Kashima 15 matches
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 13 matches
Kashima Statistic Machida Zelvia
11 Wins 5
3 Draws 5
1 Losses 3
25 Goals For 18
10 Goals Against 20
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
0.67 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
6 BTTS Yes 8
10 Over 1.5 10
5 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 5
9 Clean Sheets 3
0 Failed To Score 3
4.08 Shots On Goal 3.83
12.31 Total Shots 12.25
5.54 Corners 4.25
55.7% Ball Possession 43.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Machida Zelvia. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Machida Zelvia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kashima expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Machida Zelvia in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Machida Zelvia having the stronger overall control.

Kashima Analysis

Kashima approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 32 points after 13 outings. With 10 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:9, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by Leo Ceara (6 goals), Yuma Suzuki (6 goals), A. Cavric (2 goals), with creative support from Yuma Suzuki (3 assists), Leo Ceara (2 assists), G. Shibasaki (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Machida Zelvia Analysis

Machida Zelvia approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 24 points after 12 outings. They have recorded 9 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a 20:18 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Erik (5 goals), Y. Soma (4 goals), H. Mochizuki (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Soma (2 assists), Na Sang-Ho (1 assists), Y. Nakayama (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Kashima won 4 times, Machida Zelvia won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:11 from Kashima's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.78 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.9%)
Predicted formations: Kashima 4-4-2 / Machida Zelvia 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Kashima wins 4, draws 1, Machida Zelvia wins 4
Stats
Kashima Kashima
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
3
7 Corner Kicks 5
8 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 3
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Goal 5
5 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 3
5 Shots insidebox 7
5 Shots outsidebox 5
4 Goalkeeper Saves 2
514 Total passes 338
424 Passes accurate 267
1.03 expected_goals 1.32
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Kashima
Formation
Machida Zelvia
T. Hayakawa
T. Hayakawa
K. Nono
K. Nono
N. Ueda
N. Ueda
Kim Tae-Hyeon
Kim Tae-Hyeon
S. Mizoguchi
S. Mizoguchi
Y. Matsumura
Y. Matsumura
K. Chinen
K. Chinen
G. Shibasaki
🎯
G. Shibasaki
Y. Suzuki
Y. Suzuki
A. Cavric
A. Cavric
Leo Ceara
Leo Ceara
K. Tani
K. Tani
G. Shoji
G. Shoji
D. Okamura
D. Okamura
Y. Nakayama
Y. Nakayama
H. Nakamura
H. Nakamura
H. Mae
H. Mae
N. Lavi
N. Lavi
K. Hayashi
K. Hayashi
Erik
Erik
Na Sang-Ho
🎯
Na Sang-Ho
T. Yengi
T. Yengi
Kashima 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
T. Hayakawa
G
22
K. Nono
D
55
N. Ueda
D
3
Kim Tae-Hyeon
D
16
S. Mizoguchi
↓ 83'
D
27
Y. Matsumura
↓ 62'
M
13
K. Chinen
↓ 62'
M
10
G. Shibasaki
🎯 50' ↓ 83'
M
40
Y. Suzuki
M
77
A. Cavric
↓ 62'
F
9
Leo Ceara
⚽ 50'
F
Substitutes
29
Y. Kajikawa
G
7
R. Ogawa
↑ 83'
D
11
K. Tagawa
↑ 62'
F
5
I. Sekigawa
D
14
Y. Higuchi
↑ 62'
M
19
S. Morooka
↑ 62'
F
25
R. Koike
D
71
R. Araki
↑ 83'
M
24
H. Hayashu
M
Machida Zelvia 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
K. Tani
G
3
G. Shoji
D
50
D. Okamura
D
19
Y. Nakayama
↓ 83'
D
88
H. Nakamura
↓ 83'
M
16
H. Mae
🟨 90+3'
M
31
N. Lavi
↓ 89' 🟨 48'
M
26
K. Hayashi
🟨 57'
M
27
Erik
↓ 67'
F
10
Na Sang-Ho
🎯 53' ↓ 67'
F
99
T. Yengi
⚽ 53' 🟨 41'
F
Substitutes
13
T. Morita
G
23
R. Shirasaki
M
18
H. Shimoda
↑ 89'
M
11
A. Masuyama
M
8
K. Sento
↑ 67'
M
34
F. Tokumura
↑ 67'
F
5
I. Dresevic
↑ 83'
D
9
S. Fujio
F
6
H. Mochizuki
↑ 83'
D
Last matches: Kashima
06.06.26
J1
Kashima
Vissel Kobe
2
0
W
30.05.26
J1
Kashima
Vissel Kobe
0
5
L
23.05.26
J1
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
0
W
17.05.26
J1
Kashima
JEF United Chiba
2
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Kashima
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
1
D
06.05.26
J1
Kashima
Mito Hollyhock
3
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Kashima
Tokyo Verdy
1
2
L
24.04.26
J1
Kashima
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
18.04.26
J1
Kashima
Urawa
1
0
W
12.04.26
J1
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Kashima
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
22.03.26
J1
Kashima
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
18.03.26
J1
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
3
0
W
14.03.26
J1
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
1
0
W
07.03.26
J1
Kashima
Tokyo Verdy
2
0
W
28.02.26
J1
Kashima
Urawa
3
2
W
21.02.26
J1
Kashima
Kashiwa Reysol
2
0
W
14.02.26
J1
Kashima
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
0
W
07.02.26
J1
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Kashima
Avispa Fukuoka
3
3
D
Last matches: Machida Zelvia
06.06.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
2
1
W
30.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
2
2
D
22.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Urawa
1
0
W
17.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kawasaki Frontale
1
1
D
13.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Tokyo Verdy
0
0
D
10.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
JEF United Chiba
2
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Mito Hollyhock
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
05.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
0
0
D
01.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
0
3
L
28.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kawasaki Frontale
1
1
D
22.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Urawa
2
1
W
18.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kashima
0
3
L
14.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
27.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
21.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Tokyo Verdy
2
2
D
14.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Mito Hollyhock
2
2
D
06.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
2
W
15.01.26
Fri
Machida Zelvia
Gamba Osaka
2
3
L
H2H: Kashima vs Machida Zelvia
03.05.26
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
1
1
D
18.03.26
H2H
Machida Zelvia
Kashima
0
3
W
27.08.25
H2H
Machida Zelvia
Kashima
3
0
L
21.06.25
H2H
Machida Zelvia
Kashima
2
1
L
03.05.25
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
1
0
W
08.12.24
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
3
1
W
22.05.24
H2H
Machida Zelvia
Kashima
2
0
L
09.03.24
H2H
Machida Zelvia
Kashima
1
0
L
11.07.18
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
5
1
W
Last matches: Kashima
06.06.26
J1
Kashima
Vissel Kobe
2
0
W
23.05.26
J1
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Kashima
Mito Hollyhock
3
0
W
18.04.26
J1
Kashima
Urawa
1
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Kashima
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
1
0
W
07.03.26
J1
Kashima
Tokyo Verdy
2
0
W
21.02.26
J1
Kashima
Kashiwa Reysol
2
0
W
14.02.26
J1
Kashima
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Kashima
Fagiano Okayama
1
0
W
H2H at home: Kashima
03.05.26
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
1
1
D
03.05.25
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
1
0
W
08.12.24
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
3
1
W
11.07.18
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
5
1
W
Last matches: Machida Zelvia
30.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
2
2
D
17.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kawasaki Frontale
1
1
D
10.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
JEF United Chiba
2
0
W
29.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Mito Hollyhock
2
2
D
05.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
0
0
D
22.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Urawa
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
21.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Tokyo Verdy
2
2
D
06.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
2
W
15.01.26
Fri
Machida Zelvia
Gamba Osaka
2
3
L
H2H away: Machida Zelvia
03.05.26
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
1
1
D
03.05.25
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
1
0
L
08.12.24
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
3
1
L
11.07.18
H2H
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
5
1
L

Standings

East
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
?
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
?
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
?
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
?
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
?
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
?
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
?
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
?
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
?
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)