JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
23.05.2026 08:30
Mercari Stadium
Referee: H. Kimura
Kashima
Match Timeline
FC Tokyo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
39'
Sei Muroya
FC Tokyo
🔄
62'
Leo Ceara ↔ S. Morooka
Kashima
🔄
62'
A. Cavric ↔ H. Hayashu
Kashima
🔄
66'
K. Hashimoto ↔ T. Ko
FC Tokyo
🔄
74'
G. Shibasaki ↔ K. Chinen
Kashima
🔄
74'
R. Araki ↔ R. Koike
Kashima
🔄
76'
R. Sato ↔ F. Yamada
FC Tokyo
🔄
76'
K. Endo ↔ K. Tawaratsumida
FC Tokyo
79'
S. Morooka · Assist: K. Chinen
Kashima
🔄
84'
Marcelo Ryan ↔ T. Nakagawa
FC Tokyo
🔄
84'
K. Sato ↔ L. Nozawa
FC Tokyo
🔄
87'
K. Anzai ↔ K. Tsukui
Kashima
🟨
89'
Yuma Suzuki
Kashima

Kashima vs FC Tokyo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Kashima Win 48.1%
Draw 11.4%
FC Tokyo Win 40.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kashima1.41
FC Tokyo1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kashima Kashima
WWDLW
32 GF / 12 GA
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo
WLDWL
32 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.68
Average Goals Scored
1.78
0.63
Average Goals Conceded
1
8
BTTS Yes
10
6
Over 2.5
10
4.18
Shots on Goal
5.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kashima Kashima 19 matches
FC Tokyo FC Tokyo 18 matches
Kashima Statistic FC Tokyo
13 Wins 10
5 Draws 6
1 Losses 2
32 Goals For 32
12 Goals Against 18
1.68 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
0.63 Avg Goals Conceded 1
8 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 15
6 Over 2.5 10
2 Over 3.5 4
11 Clean Sheets 6
0 Failed To Score 5
4.18 Shots On Goal 5.59
12.29 Total Shots 15.59
5.18 Corners 5.12
57.6% Ball Possession 52.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FC Tokyo. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Kashima Analysis

Kashima approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 42 points after 17 outings. With 14 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 30:11, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Leo Ceara (10 goals), Yuma Suzuki (6 goals), A. Cavric (2 goals), with creative support from Yuma Suzuki (5 assists), G. Shibasaki (3 assists), Leo Ceara (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 8 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

FC Tokyo Analysis

FC Tokyo come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 37 points after 17 matches. They have recorded 13 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a 32:17 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Kein Sato (5 goals), Marcelo Ryan (5 goals), Ryunosuke Sato (5 goals), with creative support from Kein Sato (4 assists), Marcelo Ryan (4 assists), K. Hashimoto (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Kashima won 9 times, FC Tokyo won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:14 from Kashima's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.6%)
Predicted formations: Kashima 4-4-2 / FC Tokyo 4-4-2
H2H summary: Kashima wins 9, draws 3, FC Tokyo wins 3

Standings

East
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
?
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
?
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
?
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
?
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
?
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
?
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
?
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
?
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
?
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)