UKRAINE PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Ukraina Stadium
Referee: O. Afanasyev
Karpaty
Match Timeline
Zorya Luhansk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Bogdan Kushnirenko
Zorya Luhansk
30'
Bruninho · Assist: Y. Kostenko
Karpaty
🟨
37'
Anderson Jordan
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
58'
Denis Miroshnichenko
Karpaty
🔄
60'
Jordan ↔ A. Janjic
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
60'
D. Jelavic ↔ Juninho
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
60'
D. Popara ↔ P. Micin
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
63'
D. Miroshnichenko ↔ O. Sych
Karpaty
🔄
63'
Bruninho ↔ Y. Karabin
Karpaty
🔄
67'
B. Kushnirenko ↔ K. Dryshlyuk
Zorya Luhansk
73'
R. Vantukh · Assist: G. Eskinja
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
77'
Vladislav Baboglo
Karpaty
🔄
79'
X. Alkain ↔ I. Kvasnytsya
Karpaty
🔄
87'
V. Rubchynskyi ↔ Jean Pedroso
Karpaty
🔄
87'
Y. Kostenko ↔ O. Dyedov
Karpaty
89'
P. Micin
Zorya Luhansk
🟨
90+1'
Andrija Janjić
Zorya Luhansk
🔄
90+1'
A. Slesar ↔ S. Yaroshenko
Zorya Luhansk

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
54.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Karpaty Win 53.3%
Draw 9.1%
Zorya Luhansk Win 37.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Karpaty1.29
Zorya Luhansk1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Karpaty Karpaty
WWDLW
39 GF / 29 GA
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk
WLDWL
40 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
1.34
Average Goals Scored
1.38
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
10
BTTS Yes
17
11
Over 2.5
15
2.78
Shots on Goal
2.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Karpaty Karpaty 29 matches
Zorya Luhansk Zorya Luhansk 29 matches
Karpaty Statistic Zorya Luhansk
10 Wins 11
11 Draws 10
8 Losses 8
39 Goals For 40
29 Goals Against 35
1.34 Avg Goals Scored 1.38
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
10 BTTS Yes 17
19 Over 1.5 21
11 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 10
14 Clean Sheets 9
9 Failed To Score 7
2.78 Shots On Goal 2.65
7.37 Total Shots 7.54
2.44 Corners 3.19
28.8% Ball Possession 31.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Karpaty expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Zorya Luhansk in 4-1-2-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Zorya Luhansk having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Zorya Luhansk. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Karpaty Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Karpaty have collected 41 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses, while the 39:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Bruninho (7 goals), Igor Krasnopir (6 goals), Yan Kostenko (5 goals), with creative support from Igor Krasnopir (4 assists), Denys Miroshnichenko (4 assists), Bruninho (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 4 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Zorya Luhansk Analysis

From their first 29 matches, Zorya Luhansk have collected 43 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. Their overall return of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 40:35 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by P. Budkivsky (12 goals), N. Andjusic (7 goals), Roman Vantukh (4 goals), with creative support from A. Slesar (4 assists), Reis Rodriguez Leovigildo Junior (4 assists), N. Andjusic (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Karpaty won 0 times, Zorya Luhansk won 11 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:26 from Karpaty's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.9%)
Predicted formations: Karpaty 4-2-3-1 / Zorya Luhansk 4-1-2-3
H2H summary: Karpaty wins 0, draws 4, Zorya Luhansk wins 11

Lineups

Karpaty
Formation
Zorya Luhansk
N. Domchak
N. Domchak
D. Miroshnichenko
D. Miroshnichenko
V. Baboglo
V. Baboglo
V. Kholod
V. Kholod
R. Lyakh
R. Lyakh
A. Chachua
A. Chachua
Eriki
Eriki
V. Rubchynskyi
V. Rubchynskyi
X. Alkain
X. Alkain
Bruninho
Bruninho
Y. Kostenko
🎯
Y. Kostenko
O. Saputin
O. Saputin
I. Perduta
I. Perduta
Jordan
Jordan
G. Eskinja
🎯
G. Eskinja
R. Vantukh
R. Vantukh
D. Popara
D. Popara
B. Kushnirenko
B. Kushnirenko
J. Basic
J. Basic
A. Slesar
A. Slesar
P. Budkivsky
P. Budkivsky
D. Jelavic
D. Jelavic
Karpaty 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
N. Domchak
G
11
D. Miroshnichenko
↓ 63' 🟨 58'
D
4
V. Baboglo
🟨 77'
D
44
V. Kholod
D
73
R. Lyakh
D
8
A. Chachua
M
18
Eriki
M
15
V. Rubchynskyi
↓ 87'
M
70
X. Alkain
↓ 79'
M
37
Bruninho
⚽ 30' ↓ 63'
M
26
Y. Kostenko
🎯 30' ↓ 87'
M
Substitutes
30
A. Klishchuk
G
80
R. Mysak
G
55
T. Stetskov
D
3
V. Adamyuk
D
5
A. Buleza
D
77
O. Sych
↑ 63'
D
47
Jean Pedroso
↑ 87'
D
20
M. Sapuga
M
33
A. Shakh
M
14
I. Kvasnytsya
↑ 79'
M
19
Y. Karabin
↑ 63'
M
28
O. Dyedov
↑ 87'
Zorya Luhansk 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
O. Saputin
G
44
I. Perduta
D
55
Jordan
↓ 60' 🟨 37'
D
4
G. Eskinja
🎯 73'
D
47
R. Vantukh
⚽ 73'
D
6
D. Popara
↓ 60'
M
77
B. Kushnirenko
↓ 67' 🟨 11'
M
21
J. Basic
D
9
A. Slesar
↓ 90+1'
M
28
P. Budkivsky
F
27
D. Jelavic
↓ 60'
M
Substitutes
31
V. Kosivskyi
G
23
N. Malysh
M
5
A. Janjic
↑ 60' 🟨 90+1'
D
10
Juninho
↑ 60'
D
8
K. Dryshlyuk
↑ 67'
M
88
S. Bah
22
P. Micin
⚽ 89' ↑ 60'
M
14
S. Yaroshenko
↑ 90+1'
M
70
R. Verley
M
17
F. Zadorozhnyi
F
Last matches: Karpaty
18.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
4
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0
0
D
11.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Bravo
1
0
W
09.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
CFR 1907 Cluj
0
1
L
03.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Nyva Ternopil
2
1
W
02.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Yarud Mariupol'
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Veres Rivne
2
0
W
12.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kryvbas KR
0
1
L
02.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Ruh Lviv
3
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Oleksandria
2
0
W
04.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Dynamo Kyiv
1
0
W
22.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Obolon'-Brovar
4
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
SK Poltava
4
0
W
08.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kudrivka
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kolos Kovalivka
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pre
Karpaty
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
3
L
13.02.26
Fri
Karpaty
Tianjin Teda
1
0
W
Last matches: Zorya Luhansk
23.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Göztepe
1
2
L
18.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Grimsby
1
1
D
15.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Konyaspor
1
2
L
08.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Slovácko
1
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
HNK Gorica
1
2
L
30.06.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Shkendija
2
2
D
18.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Polessya
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Oleksandria
2
1
W
09.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1
1
D
04.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Ruh Lviv
2
1
W
27.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Veres Rivne
2
0
W
23.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Dynamo Kyiv
1
3
L
12.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
0
W
05.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Obolon'-Brovar
3
3
D
28.03.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Kolos Kovalivka
2
2
D
24.03.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Kudrivka
2
4
L
15.03.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Kolos Kovalivka
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
SK Poltava
4
0
W
01.03.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Kryvbas KR
1
3
L
H2H: Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk
23.05.26
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
2
L
05.12.25
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
1
0
L
25.05.25
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
3
L
02.12.24
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
2
1
L
30.11.19
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
2
0
L
25.08.19
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
0
1
L
10.11.18
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
2
1
L
12.08.18
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
0
1
L
18.02.18
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
L
17.09.17
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
0
0
D
27.11.16
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
2
2
D
21.08.16
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
2
1
L
02.04.16
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
4
1
L
13.09.15
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
1
D
16.05.15
H2H
Zorya Luhansk
Karpaty
1
1
D
Last matches: Karpaty
18.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
4
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Nyva Ternopil
2
1
W
02.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Yarud Mariupol'
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Veres Rivne
2
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Oleksandria
2
0
W
22.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Obolon'-Brovar
4
0
W
08.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kudrivka
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kolos Kovalivka
0
1
L
13.02.26
Fri
Karpaty
Tianjin Teda
1
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Karpaty
Stjarnan
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Karpaty
Gais
0
1
L
29.01.26
Fri
Karpaty
IFK Varnamo
1
1
D
28.01.26
Fri
Karpaty
Odense
2
3
L
22.01.26
Fri
Karpaty
Real Murcia II
3
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Karpaty
Daejeon Citizen
1
2
L
22.11.25
Pre
Karpaty
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1
2
L
08.11.25
Pre
Karpaty
Kryvbas KR
1
0
W
25.10.25
Pre
Karpaty
Ruh Lviv
0
0
D
19.10.25
Pre
Karpaty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
3
L
H2H at home: Karpaty
23.05.26
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
2
L
25.05.25
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
3
L
25.08.19
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
0
1
L
12.08.18
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
0
1
L
18.02.18
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
L
27.11.16
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
2
2
D
13.09.15
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
1
D
Last matches: Zorya Luhansk
08.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Slovácko
1
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
HNK Gorica
1
2
L
12.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Oleksandria
2
1
W
04.05.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Ruh Lviv
2
1
W
17.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Dynamo Kyiv
1
3
L
05.04.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Obolon'-Brovar
3
3
D
15.03.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Kolos Kovalivka
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Kryvbas KR
1
3
L
23.02.26
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Kudrivka
2
2
D
29.01.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Rapid Wien II
5
1
W
25.01.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Lokomotiv Sofia
3
3
D
21.01.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Miedz Legnica
2
3
L
17.01.26
Fri
Zorya Luhansk
Radnik Surdulica
1
2
L
13.12.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
LNZ Cherkasy
0
2
L
30.11.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Polessya
0
2
L
08.11.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
3
1
W
24.10.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Veres Rivne
0
0
D
03.10.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
1
W
22.09.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
1
L
29.08.25
Pre
Zorya Luhansk
SK Poltava
4
1
W
H2H away: Zorya Luhansk
23.05.26
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
2
W
25.05.25
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
3
W
25.08.19
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
0
1
W
12.08.18
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
0
1
W
18.02.18
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
0
2
W
27.11.16
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
2
2
D
13.09.15
H2H
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
1
D

Standings

Premier League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 6 2 71:21 50 72
L W W W W
2 30 18 6 6 39:17 22 60
W L W D D
3 30 18 5 7 51:21 30 59
W D L W W
4 30 17 6 7 66:36 30 57
W W W D L
5 30 13 12 5 36:19 17 51
W D D D L
6 30 13 10 7 30:25 5 49
W L L W W
7 30 13 9 8 53:46 7 48
D L W W D
8 30 12 10 8 42:36 6 46
W D W D W
9 30 10 11 9 40:31 9 41
L W D L D
10 30 8 8 14 36:45 -9 32
D D W D D
11 30 7 10 13 26:40 -14 31
L L L D D
12 30 7 10 13 28:49 -21 31
L W L D D
13 30 7 7 16 32:48 -16 28
L W W L D
14 30 6 3 21 20:51 -31 21
L L L D L
15 30 3 8 19 24:58 -34 17
D W L L L
16 30 2 7 21 23:74 -51 13
D L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Persha Liga