UKRAINE PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Ukraina Stadium
Referee: M. Balakin
Karpaty
Match Timeline
LNZ Cherkasy
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Yehor Tverdokhlib
LNZ Cherkasy
🟨
45+2'
Ambrosiy Chachua
Karpaty
🔄
61'
M. Sapuga ↔ Jean Pedroso
Karpaty
🟨
64'
Artur Mykytyshyn
LNZ Cherkasy
🔄
68'
A. Mykytyshyn ↔ M. Jashari
LNZ Cherkasy
🔄
68'
Y. Tverdokhlib ↔ Y. Pastukh
LNZ Cherkasy
🟨
71'
Jean Pedroso
Karpaty
🔄
72'
O. Sych ↔ D. Miroshnichenko
Karpaty
🔄
72'
B. Faal ↔ Y. Karabin
Karpaty
🟨
76'
Muharrem Jashari
LNZ Cherkasy
🔄
79'
M. Assinor ↔ D. Kravchuk
LNZ Cherkasy
🔄
82'
Y. Kostenko ↔ V. Paulo
Karpaty
🔄
82'
Bruninho ↔ V. Rubchynskyi
Karpaty
🟨
90+3'
Denis Miroshnichenko
Karpaty

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 43.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
43.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.8%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
82.5%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Karpaty Win 35.9%
Draw 8.4%
LNZ Cherkasy Win 55.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Karpaty1.1
LNZ Cherkasy1.28
Recent Form (Last 5)
Karpaty Karpaty
WWDLW
35 GF / 26 GA
LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy
WLDWL
36 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
0.64
9
BTTS Yes
6
10
Over 2.5
8
3.17
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Karpaty Karpaty 25 matches
LNZ Cherkasy LNZ Cherkasy 25 matches
Karpaty Statistic LNZ Cherkasy
9 Wins 16
9 Draws 4
7 Losses 5
35 Goals For 36
26 Goals Against 16
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 0.64
9 BTTS Yes 6
17 Over 1.5 15
10 Over 2.5 8
7 Over 3.5 4
12 Clean Sheets 16
7 Failed To Score 5
3.17 Shots On Goal 3.5
8.3 Total Shots 9.05
2.65 Corners 3.95
31.7% Ball Possession 33.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Karpaty expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and LNZ Cherkasy in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward LNZ Cherkasy having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring LNZ Cherkasy. LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 52 points while Karpaty sit 8 on 36, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Karpaty come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods.

Karpaty Analysis

Karpaty are currently 8 in the standings with 36 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses, while the 35:26 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Going forward they rely heavily on Bruninho (7 goals), Igor Krasnopir (6 goals), Yan Kostenko (5 goals), with creative support from Bruninho (3 assists), Igor Krasnopir (2 assists), Jean Pedroso (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

LNZ Cherkasy Analysis

Placed 2 with 52 points from 25 outings, LNZ Cherkasy continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 16 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses with goals at 36:16 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Mark Assinor (8 goals), P. Obah (8 goals), Artur Ryabov (3 goals), with creative support from P. Obah (3 assists), M. Jashari (3 assists), S. Nonikashvili (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Karpaty won 2 times, LNZ Cherkasy won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:8 from Karpaty's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.86 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Karpaty 4-1-4-1 / LNZ Cherkasy 5-3-2
H2H summary: Karpaty wins 2, draws 2, LNZ Cherkasy wins 3

Lineups

Karpaty
Formation
LNZ Cherkasy
N. Domchak
N. Domchak
O. Sych
O. Sych
V. Baboglo
V. Baboglo
V. Kholod
V. Kholod
R. Lyakh
R. Lyakh
A. Chachua
A. Chachua
M. Sapuga
M. Sapuga
Bruninho
Bruninho
X. Alkain
X. Alkain
B. Faal
B. Faal
Y. Kostenko
Y. Kostenko
O. Palamarchuk
O. Palamarchuk
G. Pasich
G. Pasich
O. Gorin
O. Gorin
N. Muravskyi
N. Muravskyi
O. Drambayev
O. Drambayev
A. Ryabov
A. Ryabov
R. Didyk
R. Didyk
A. Mykytyshyn
A. Mykytyshyn
Y. Tverdokhlib
Y. Tverdokhlib
D. Kuzyk
D. Kuzyk
M. Assinor
M. Assinor
Karpaty 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
N. Domchak
G
77
O. Sych
↓ 72'
D
4
V. Baboglo
D
44
V. Kholod
D
73
R. Lyakh
D
8
A. Chachua
🟨 45+2'
M
20
M. Sapuga
↓ 61'
M
37
Bruninho
↓ 82'
M
70
X. Alkain
M
99
B. Faal
↓ 72'
F
26
Y. Kostenko
↓ 82'
M
Substitutes
80
R. Mysak
G
3
V. Adamyuk
D
55
T. Stetskov
D
11
D. Miroshnichenko
↑ 72' 🟨 90+3'
D
18
Eriki
M
47
Jean Pedroso
↑ 61' 🟨 71'
D
14
I. Kvasnytsya
M
35
Edson Fernando
M
33
A. Shakh
M
7
V. Paulo
↑ 82'
M
15
V. Rubchynskyi
↑ 82'
M
19
Y. Karabin
↑ 72'
M
LNZ Cherkasy 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
12
O. Palamarchuk
G
11
G. Pasich
D
25
O. Gorin
D
34
N. Muravskyi
D
14
O. Drambayev
D
16
A. Ryabov
M
29
R. Didyk
D
7
A. Mykytyshyn
↓ 68' 🟨 64'
M
22
Y. Tverdokhlib
↓ 68' 🟨 19'
M
17
D. Kuzyk
D
90
M. Assinor
↓ 79'
F
Substitutes
1
D. Ledviy
G
72
K. Samoylenko
G
33
I. Putrya
18
Awudu Abdul
27
J. Bennette
M
10
M. Jashari
↑ 68' 🟨 76'
M
5
S. Nonikashvili
M
19
Y. Pastukh
↑ 68'
M
6
V. Tankovskiy
M
8
A. Yakubu
M
23
D. Kravchuk
↑ 79'
F
Last matches: Karpaty
18.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
4
0
W
17.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
0
0
D
11.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Bravo
1
0
W
09.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
CFR 1907 Cluj
0
1
L
03.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Nyva Ternopil
2
1
W
02.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Yarud Mariupol'
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Veres Rivne
2
0
W
12.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
2
2
D
08.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kryvbas KR
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Ruh Lviv
3
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Oleksandria
2
0
W
04.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Dynamo Kyiv
1
0
W
22.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Obolon'-Brovar
4
0
W
13.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
SK Poltava
4
0
W
08.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kudrivka
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kolos Kovalivka
0
1
L
22.02.26
Pre
Karpaty
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
3
L
13.02.26
Fri
Karpaty
Tianjin Teda
1
0
W
Last matches: LNZ Cherkasy
23.07.26
UEF
LNZ Cherkasy
Gent
0
0
D
16.07.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Göztepe
0
2
L
14.07.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Dinamo Zagreb
0
0
D
11.07.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Olimpija Ljubljana
1
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
MTK Budapest
4
0
W
05.07.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Koper
2
1
W
30.06.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Sturm Graz
6
2
W
27.06.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
HNK Hajduk Split
0
1
L
24.05.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Obolon'-Brovar
1
0
W
18.05.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Kudrivka
0
1
L
13.05.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
SK Poltava
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Dynamo Kyiv
0
0
D
26.04.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1
1
D
18.04.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Kolos Kovalivka
0
1
L
13.04.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Shakhtar Donetsk
2
2
D
05.04.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Kryvbas KR
3
0
W
29.03.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Ruh Lviv
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Oleksandria
2
0
W
09.03.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Veres Rivne
3
0
W
H2H: Karpaty vs LNZ Cherkasy
02.05.26
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
0
0
D
03.11.25
H2H
LNZ Cherkasy
Karpaty
0
1
W
28.02.25
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
1
0
W
26.08.24
H2H
LNZ Cherkasy
Karpaty
2
1
L
22.05.23
H2H
LNZ Cherkasy
Karpaty
4
1
L
22.04.23
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
1
1
D
26.03.22
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
0
0
D
27.08.21
H2H
LNZ Cherkasy
Karpaty
1
0
L
Last matches: Karpaty
18.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Zeljeznicar Sarajevo
4
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Nyva Ternopil
2
1
W
02.07.26
Fri
Karpaty
Yarud Mariupol'
1
1
D
23.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Zorya Luhansk
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pre
Karpaty
Veres Rivne
2
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Karpaty
Oleksandria
2
0
W
22.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Obolon'-Brovar
4
0
W
08.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kudrivka
1
1
D
01.03.26
Pre
Karpaty
Kolos Kovalivka
0
1
L
13.02.26
Fri
Karpaty
Tianjin Teda
1
0
W
08.02.26
Fri
Karpaty
Stjarnan
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Karpaty
Gais
0
1
L
29.01.26
Fri
Karpaty
IFK Varnamo
1
1
D
28.01.26
Fri
Karpaty
Odense
2
3
L
22.01.26
Fri
Karpaty
Real Murcia II
3
0
W
20.01.26
Fri
Karpaty
Daejeon Citizen
1
2
L
22.11.25
Pre
Karpaty
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1
2
L
08.11.25
Pre
Karpaty
Kryvbas KR
1
0
W
25.10.25
Pre
Karpaty
Ruh Lviv
0
0
D
19.10.25
Pre
Karpaty
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
1
3
L
H2H at home: Karpaty
02.05.26
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
0
0
D
28.02.25
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
1
0
W
22.04.23
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
1
1
D
26.03.22
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
0
0
D
Last matches: LNZ Cherkasy
14.07.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Dinamo Zagreb
0
0
D
11.07.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Olimpija Ljubljana
1
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
MTK Budapest
4
0
W
05.07.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Koper
2
1
W
30.06.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Sturm Graz
6
2
W
24.05.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Obolon'-Brovar
1
0
W
18.05.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Kudrivka
0
1
L
18.04.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Kolos Kovalivka
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Kryvbas KR
3
0
W
29.03.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Ruh Lviv
2
1
W
09.03.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Veres Rivne
3
0
W
21.02.26
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
0
W
07.02.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Kolos Kovalivka
1
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Polonia Warszawa
2
0
W
21.01.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
CSKA Sofia
0
0
D
17.01.26
Fri
LNZ Cherkasy
Dukla Praha
2
1
W
21.11.25
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
SK Poltava
2
0
W
09.11.25
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Dynamo Kyiv
1
0
W
25.10.25
Pre
LNZ Cherkasy
Metalist 1925 Kharkiv
1
0
W
H2H away: LNZ Cherkasy
02.05.26
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
0
0
D
28.02.25
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
1
0
L
22.04.23
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
1
1
D
26.03.22
H2H
Karpaty
LNZ Cherkasy
0
0
D

Standings

Premier League: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 22 6 2 71:21 50 72
L W W W W
2 30 18 6 6 39:17 22 60
W L W D D
3 30 18 5 7 51:21 30 59
W D L W W
4 30 17 6 7 66:36 30 57
W W W D L
5 30 13 12 5 36:19 17 51
W D D D L
6 30 13 10 7 30:25 5 49
W L L W W
7 30 13 9 8 53:46 7 48
D L W W D
8 30 12 10 8 42:36 6 46
W D W D W
9 30 10 11 9 40:31 9 41
L W D L D
10 30 8 8 14 36:45 -9 32
D D W D D
11 30 7 10 13 26:40 -14 31
L L L D D
12 30 7 10 13 28:49 -21 31
L W L D D
13 30 7 7 16 32:48 -16 28
L W W L D
14 30 6 3 21 20:51 -31 21
L L L D L
15 30 3 8 19 24:58 -34 17
D W L L L
16 30 2 7 21 23:74 -51 13
D L L L D
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - Persha Liga