22.05.2026 20:00
Complejo Deportivo Juan Pablo II
Referee: Micke Palomino, Peru
Juan Pablo II College
Match Timeline
FBC Melgar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
B. Cuesta · Assist: J. Caceres
FBC Melgar
🟨
45+2'
Juan Escobar
FBC Melgar
56'
M. Peralta
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
59'
A. Espinoza ↔ F. Agurto
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
63'
J. Caceres ↔ L. Guzman
FBC Melgar
🔄
71'
E. Ramirez ↔ M. Juambeltz
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
71'
C. Cueva ↔ C. Flores
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
77'
B. Cuesta ↔ P. Erustes
FBC Melgar
🔄
84'
J. Duran ↔ N. Ramirez
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
86'
N. Quagliata ↔ C. Bordacahar
FBC Melgar
🟥
90+2'
Martin Peralta
Juan Pablo II College

Juan Pablo II College vs FBC Melgar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.4%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Juan Pablo II College Win 21.6%
Draw 19.6%
FBC Melgar Win 58.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Juan Pablo II College1.35
FBC Melgar1.91
Recent Form (Last 5)
Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College
WWDLW
23 GF / 35 GA
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar
WLDWL
31 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.72
2.19
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
11
BTTS Yes
12
12
Over 2.5
11
2.8
Shots on Goal
4.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College 16 matches
FBC Melgar FBC Melgar 18 matches
Juan Pablo II College Statistic FBC Melgar
5 Wins 9
3 Draws 3
8 Losses 6
23 Goals For 31
35 Goals Against 22
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.72
2.19 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
11 BTTS Yes 12
16 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 11
6 Over 3.5 7
1 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 2
2.8 Shots On Goal 4.13
8.13 Total Shots 13
3.33 Corners 4.93
41.3% Ball Possession 52.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by FBC Melgar's more proactive style and Juan Pablo II College's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. FBC Melgar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 5 with 24 points while Juan Pablo II College sit 17 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Juan Pablo II College have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Juan Pablo II College expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and FBC Melgar in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FBC Melgar having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward FBC Melgar. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Juan Pablo II College Analysis

Juan Pablo II College sit 17 with 15 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 8 defeats with a 20:35 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Alaniz (4 goals), M. Juambeltz (3 goals), P. Fuentes (3 goals), with creative support from M. Alaniz (6 assists), C. Cueva (3 assists), M. Juambeltz (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

FBC Melgar Analysis

FBC Melgar come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 5 place with 24 points after 15 matches. With 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats plus a goal balance of 25:18, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by B. Cuesta (6 goals), J. Vidales (5 goals), M. Zegarra (3 goals), with creative support from N. Quagliata (7 assists), M. Zegarra (4 assists), B. Cuesta (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the split of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Juan Pablo II College won 0 times, FBC Melgar won 0 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:3 from Juan Pablo II College's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.4%)
Predicted formations: Juan Pablo II College 4-1-4-1 / FBC Melgar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Juan Pablo II College wins 0, draws 3, FBC Melgar wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2