16.05.2026 20:15
Complejo Deportivo Juan Pablo II
Referee: Jesus Cartagena, Peru
Juan Pablo II College
Match Timeline
Alianza Atletico
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
J. del Castillo
Alianza Atletico
🟨
29'
Jimmy Pérez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
46'
C. Garcia ↔ C. Flores
Juan Pablo II College
🟨
52'
Cristhian Tizón
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
56'
C. Tizon ↔ N. Ramirez
Juan Pablo II College
🟨
67'
Jorge Toledo
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
69'
J. del Castillo ↔ C. Penilla
Alianza Atletico
🔄
69'
J. Perez ↔ F. Coronel
Alianza Atletico
🔄
72'
M. Peralta ↔ M. Juambeltz
Juan Pablo II College
🟨
75'
Daniel Prieto
Alianza Atletico
🟨
78'
José Luján
Alianza Atletico
🟥
82'
Josué Canova
Juan Pablo II College
VAR
82'
Josué Canova
Juan Pablo II College
87'
C. Penilla · Assist: V. Robaldo
Alianza Atletico
🔄
90'
A. Henricks ↔ H. Bazan
Juan Pablo II College
🔄
90+2'
H. Lupu ↔ J. Delgado
Alianza Atletico
🔄
90'
A. Munoz ↔ S. Fernandez
Alianza Atletico
🔄
90'
V. Robaldo ↔ C. Valladolid
Alianza Atletico

Juan Pablo II College vs Alianza Atletico Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.8%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Juan Pablo II College Win 53%
Draw 0%
Alianza Atletico Win 47%
Expected Goals (xG)
Juan Pablo II College1.37
Alianza Atletico1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College
WWDLW
23 GF / 33 GA
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico
WLDWL
16 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.53
Average Goals Scored
1.07
2.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.13
11
BTTS Yes
7
12
Over 2.5
7
2.93
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Juan Pablo II College Juan Pablo II College 15 matches
Alianza Atletico Alianza Atletico 15 matches
Juan Pablo II College Statistic Alianza Atletico
5 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
7 Losses 6
23 Goals For 16
33 Goals Against 17
1.53 Avg Goals Scored 1.07
2.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.13
11 BTTS Yes 7
15 Over 1.5 9
12 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 3
1 Clean Sheets 4
3 Failed To Score 6
2.93 Shots On Goal 4.57
8.21 Total Shots 12.43
3.21 Corners 3.07
40.4% Ball Possession 46.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Alianza Atletico's more proactive style and Juan Pablo II College's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Juan Pablo II College expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Alianza Atletico in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Alianza Atletico having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Alianza Atletico. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Juan Pablo II College Analysis

Juan Pablo II College sit 15 with 15 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats with a 20:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Alaniz (4 goals), M. Juambeltz (3 goals), P. Fuentes (3 goals), with creative support from M. Alaniz (6 assists), C. Cueva (3 assists), M. Juambeltz (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alianza Atletico Analysis

Alianza Atletico sit 9 with 17 points after 14 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 16:14, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Franco Coronel (3 goals), V. Robaldo (3 goals), C. Penilla (2 goals), with creative support from Franco Coronel (2 assists), C. Penilla (2 assists), F. Flores (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Juan Pablo II College won 3 times, Alianza Atletico won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:2 from Juan Pablo II College's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Juan Pablo II College 4-1-4-1 / Alianza Atletico 4-3-3
H2H summary: Juan Pablo II College wins 3, draws 0, Alianza Atletico wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 15 8 3 42:18 24 53
L D L D W
2 26 14 7 5 43:27 16 49
W D W W W
3 26 13 6 7 44:28 16 45
W W L D W
4 26 13 6 7 35:24 11 45
L W W W D
5 26 13 3 10 38:37 1 42
L W W L W
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 25 12 4 9 44:37 7 40
W L L D L
8 26 10 7 9 38:34 4 37
L W W W D
9 26 10 7 9 28:25 3 37
W L W W D
10 26 10 5 11 45:39 6 35
W W L L W
11 26 9 5 12 25:28 -3 32
W L W W W
12 26 9 5 12 34:42 -8 32
W W W L L
13 26 8 7 11 38:52 -14 31
W D W W L
14 26 7 9 10 34:36 -2 30
L D L W L
15 26 7 6 13 40:50 -10 27
W L W L L
16 26 6 7 13 24:37 -13 25
L L L W D
17 25 5 7 13 27:39 -12 22
L L L D D
18 26 4 8 14 30:47 -17 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2