NETHERLANDS EERSTE DIVISIE
18.09.2026 18:00
Sportcomplex De Toekomst

Jong Ajax vs Roda Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 72.7%
Odds 1.28
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.45
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
72.7%
1.28
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.45
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Jong Ajax Win 27.3%
Draw 24.9%
Roda Win 47.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jong Ajax1.5
Roda2.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jong Ajax Jong Ajax
WWDLW
13 GF / 25 GA
Roda Roda
WLDWL
25 GF / 19 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
2.08
2.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
6
BTTS Yes
7
6
Over 2.5
6
5.88
Shots on Goal
5.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jong Ajax Jong Ajax 9 matches
Roda Roda 12 matches
Jong Ajax Statistic Roda
2 Wins 5
1 Draws 3
6 Losses 4
13 Goals For 25
25 Goals Against 19
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 2.08
2.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
6 BTTS Yes 7
8 Over 1.5 8
6 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 4
1 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 1
5.88 Shots On Goal 5.17
14.5 Total Shots 11.67
5 Corners 4.5
53.3% Ball Possession 50.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Roda's more proactive style and Jong Ajax's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Jong Ajax expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Roda in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Roda having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Roda. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Jong Ajax Analysis

So far, Jong Ajax have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 7 points from 6 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 12:14 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Ünüvar (5 goals), D. Pugno (4 goals), P. Nash (2 goals), with creative support from D. Pugno (2 assists), P. Nash (2 assists), L. Acheampong (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Roda Analysis

Roda sit 9 with 8 points after 5 league matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 6:5 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by M. Tol (2 goals), L. Beerten (1 goals), J. Nisbet (1 goals), with creative support from M. Paulissen (2 assists), D. Dorenbosch (1 assists), Bram Marsman (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Jong Ajax won 4 times, Roda won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:24 from Jong Ajax's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.1%)
Predicted formations: Jong Ajax 4-2-3-1 / Roda 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Jong Ajax wins 4, draws 5, Roda wins 5

Standings

Eerste Divisie: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 6 6 0 0 24:9 15 18
W W W W W
2 6 4 1 1 15:4 11 13
W L W W W
3 6 4 1 1 9:9 0 13
L D W W W
4 6 4 0 2 16:10 6 12
W L W W W
5 6 4 0 2 16:14 2 12
L W L W W
6 8 3 3 2 13:13 0 12
D L W D D
7
Roda Away
6 3 2 1 7:5 2 11
W D D W W
8 6 2 4 0 12:8 4 10
W W D D D
9 6 3 1 2 10:8 2 10
L W W L W
10 8 3 1 4 18:16 2 10
D L W W L
11 6 3 0 3 16:10 6 9
W L W L W
12 6 2 2 2 12:10 2 8
W W L D L
13 6 2 1 3 11:14 -3 7
L L D W L
14 6 2 1 3 8:12 -4 7
W D L L L
15 8 2 1 5 14:18 -4 7
W W D L L
16 8 2 1 5 13:22 -9 7
L L W D W
17 6 1 1 4 10:15 -5 4
L L L W L
18 6 1 1 4 9:18 -9 4
L L L L D
19 6 1 1 4 7:18 -11 4
W L L L L
20 6 1 0 5 5:12 -7 3
L L W L L
Promotion - Eredivisie
Promotion - Eredivisie (Promotion)