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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
17.10.2026 05:00
Fukuda Denshi Arena

JEF United Chiba vs Yokohama F. Marinos Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 72.1%
Odds 2.02
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.75
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 1.85
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
72.1%
2.02 ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.75 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
1.85 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
67.3%
1.25 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
JEF United Chiba Win 22.5%
Draw 5.4%
Yokohama F. Marinos Win 72.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
JEF United Chiba0.93
Yokohama F. Marinos1.71
Recent Form (Last 5)
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba
WWDLW
8 GF / 19 GA
Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos
WLDWL
13 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1.44
2.11
Average Goals Conceded
1
5
BTTS Yes
4
5
Over 2.5
2
3.78
Shots on Goal
3.22

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 9 matches
Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 9 matches
JEF United Chiba Statistic Yokohama F. Marinos
1 Wins 4
2 Draws 3
6 Losses 2
8 Goals For 13
19 Goals Against 9
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
2.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1
5 BTTS Yes 4
9 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 1
3.78 Shots On Goal 3.22
10.33 Total Shots 11.44
3.11 Corners 3.44
44.3% Ball Possession 48.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Yokohama F. Marinos's more proactive style and JEF United Chiba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. JEF United Chiba have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Yokohama F. Marinos carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 14 points while JEF United Chiba sit 20 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Yokohama F. Marinos. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with JEF United Chiba expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Yokohama F. Marinos in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Yokohama F. Marinos having the stronger overall control.

JEF United Chiba Analysis

JEF United Chiba sit 20 with 4 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 7:18 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on T. Tsukui (1 goals), Matheus Índio (1 goals), K. Yamura (1 goals), with creative support from R. Ishio (1 assists), T. Taguchi (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Yokohama F. Marinos Analysis

So far, Yokohama F. Marinos have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 14 points from 8 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, while the 13:9 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on K. Tanimura (4 goals), J. Quiñónes (1 goals), T. Inoue (1 goals), with creative support from K. Matsumura (2 assists), T. Kondo (2 assists), J. Amano (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, JEF United Chiba won 0 times, Yokohama F. Marinos won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:5 from JEF United Chiba's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: JEF United Chiba 4-4-2 / Yokohama F. Marinos 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: JEF United Chiba wins 0, draws 0, Yokohama F. Marinos wins 2

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 0 2 21:14 7 21
W W W L L
2 9 6 2 1 22:6 16 20
W W W L W
3 9 6 2 1 22:10 12 20
W L D W W
4 9 6 2 1 17:8 9 20
W W W W D
5 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
L W W W W
6 9 5 1 3 19:16 3 16
W D L L L
7 9 4 3 2 13:9 4 15
D W D W D
8 9 3 4 2 17:14 3 13
L D W W L
9 9 4 1 4 12:12 0 13
L L W W W
10 9 4 1 4 8:9 -1 13
W W W L D
11 9 4 0 5 16:21 -5 12
L W L W W
12 9 3 3 3 7:12 -5 12
D D L D W
13 9 2 3 4 12:13 -1 9
L L L D W
14 9 2 3 4 11:16 -5 9
D D W L D
15 9 3 0 6 9:15 -6 9
W L L L L
16 9 2 2 5 11:16 -5 8
L W L L D
17 9 2 1 6 11:13 -2 7
W L L D L
18 9 1 3 5 8:16 -8 6
L L L L D
19 9 1 2 6 8:19 -11 5
D L D W L
20 9 0 4 5 4:14 -10 4
L L D D L
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League