JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
10.05.2026 08:00
Fukuda Denshi Arena
Referee: Y. Yamashita
JEF United Chiba
Match Timeline
Machida Zelvia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
7'
Na Sang-Ho
Machida Zelvia
⚽
36'
Na Sang-Ho · Assist: T. Yengi
Machida Zelvia
🔄
59'
Erik ↔ K. Sento
Machida Zelvia
🔄
61'
T. Yasui ↔ M. Himeno
JEF United Chiba
🟨
65'
Makoto Himeno
JEF United Chiba
🔄
74'
T. Tsukui ↔ K. Tanaka
JEF United Chiba
🔄
74'
Eduardo ↔ T. Taguchi
JEF United Chiba
🔄
74'
Z. Issaka ↔ N. Sugiyama
JEF United Chiba
🔄
78'
H. Nakamura ↔ A. Masuyama
Machida Zelvia
🔄
79'
T. Yengi ↔ S. Fujio
Machida Zelvia
🔄
79'
Na Sang-Ho ↔ K. Hayashi
Machida Zelvia
🔄
89'
H. Shimoda ↔ R. Shirasaki
Machida Zelvia
🔄
90'
T. Mae ↔ H. Goya
JEF United Chiba

JEF United Chiba vs Machida Zelvia Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
JEF United Chiba Win 32.9%
Draw 11.2%
Machida Zelvia Win 55.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
JEF United Chiba1.2
Machida Zelvia1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba
WWDLW
17 GF / 25 GA
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia
WLDWL
21 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.4
10
BTTS Yes
9
9
Over 2.5
9
3.67
Shots on Goal
3.79

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 16 matches
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 15 matches
JEF United Chiba Statistic Machida Zelvia
3 Wins 6
3 Draws 6
10 Losses 3
17 Goals For 21
25 Goals Against 21
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.4
10 BTTS Yes 9
14 Over 1.5 12
9 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 3
3.67 Shots On Goal 3.79
11.07 Total Shots 11.93
4.47 Corners 4.29
47.3% Ball Possession 43.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Machida Zelvia's more proactive style and JEF United Chiba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Machida Zelvia. Machida Zelvia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with JEF United Chiba expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Machida Zelvia in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Machida Zelvia having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Machida Zelvia carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 28 points while JEF United Chiba sit 9 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

JEF United Chiba Analysis

JEF United Chiba sit 9 with 12 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 12 defeats with a 16:26 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Hiroto Goya (3 goals), Carlinhos Junior (2 goals), D. Ishikawa (2 goals), with creative support from Z. Issaka (2 assists), N. Sugiyama (2 assists), Hiroto Goya (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Machida Zelvia Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 28 points from 14 games, Machida Zelvia bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, with a 23:20 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Erik (6 goals), Y. Soma (4 goals), H. Mochizuki (2 goals), with creative support from Y. Soma (2 assists), Na Sang-Ho (2 assists), G. Shoji (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, JEF United Chiba won 4 times, Machida Zelvia won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:23 from JEF United Chiba's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.8%)
Predicted formations: JEF United Chiba 4-4-2 / Machida Zelvia 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: JEF United Chiba wins 4, draws 5, Machida Zelvia wins 6

Standings

East
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
?
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
?
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
?
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
?
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
?
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
?
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
?
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
?
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
?
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)