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09.05.2026 15:30
Chorten Arena
Referee: W. Myc
Jagiellonia
Match Timeline
Pogon Szczecin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
11'
K. Szmyt · Assist: J. Imaz
Jagiellonia
⚽
32'
A. Pululu · Assist: A. Pozo
Jagiellonia
⚽
44'
F. Cuic
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
46'
J. Czaplinski ↔ N. Lawa
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
65'
K. Acosta ↔ K. Grosicki
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
65'
Leo Borges ↔ L. Koutris
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
65'
L. Wahlqvist ↔ D. Keramitsis
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
77'
J. Imaz ↔ M. Nahuel
Jagiellonia
🔄
77'
K. Szmyt ↔ K. Jozwiak
Jagiellonia
🔄
79'
D. Loncar ↔ H. Ali
Pogon Szczecin
🔄
82'
S. Lozano ↔ L. Flach
Jagiellonia
🔄
82'
A. Pululu ↔ S. Bazdar
Jagiellonia
⚽
83'
M. Agger · Assist: L. Koutris
Pogon Szczecin
🟨
90+2'
Kamil Jóźwiak
Jagiellonia
🔄
90+3'
A. Pozo ↔ A. Konstantopoulos
Jagiellonia
⚽
90'
B. Vital
Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia vs Pogon Szczecin Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.5%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Jagiellonia Win 45.5%
Draw 6.1%
Pogon Szczecin Win 48.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jagiellonia1.52
Pogon Szczecin1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
L W D D L
6 GF / 5 GA
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin
W D L W L
7 GF / 5 GA
Key Stats
1.57
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.45
28
BTTS Yes
18
27
Over 2.5
17
4.52
Shots on Goal
4.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 44 matches
Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 31 matches
Jagiellonia Statistic Pogon Szczecin
19 Wins 12
15 Draws 5
10 Losses 14
69 Goals For 43
51 Goals Against 45
1.57 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.45
28 BTTS Yes 18
35 Over 1.5 26
27 Over 2.5 17
12 Over 3.5 6
13 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 7
4.52 Shots On Goal 4.61
12.77 Total Shots 14.71
4.57 Corners 5.19
51.6% Ball Possession 51.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Jagiellonia's more proactive style and Pogon Szczecin's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Pogon Szczecin. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Jagiellonia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Pogon Szczecin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Pogon Szczecin having the stronger overall control.

Jagiellonia Analysis

Jagiellonia come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 46 points from 30 matches. The record of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 48:37 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Jesús Imaz (13 goals), Afimico Pululu (12 goals), A. Pozo (3 goals), with creative support from Jesús Imaz (5 assists), Afimico Pululu (5 assists), B. Wdowik (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Pogon Szczecin Analysis

Pogon Szczecin are currently 9 in the standings with 41 points from 31 matches. The record of 12 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 43:45 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Paul Mukairu (8 goals), K. Grosicki (6 goals), F. Ulvestad (5 goals), with creative support from K. Grosicki (5 assists), F. Ulvestad (3 assists), Sam Greenwood (2 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Jagiellonia won 3 times, Pogon Szczecin won 7 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:24 from Jagiellonia's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.9%)
Predicted formations: Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1 / Pogon Szczecin 4-4-2
H2H summary: Jagiellonia wins 3, draws 4, Pogon Szczecin wins 7

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 16 12 6 62:45 17 60
D W D W W
2 34 16 8 10 50:38 12 56
W W D L W
3 34 15 11 8 56:41 15 56
W D W W L
4 34 16 7 11 51:40 11 55
W W L W W
5 34 14 8 12 51:45 6 50
D D D W D
6 34 12 13 9 42:37 5 49
W W W W L
7 34 13 9 12 45:38 7 48
L L W D L
8 34 12 10 12 34:38 -4 46
D L L L L
9 34 13 6 15 47:49 -2 45
D W L W D
10 34 11 11 12 52:53 -1 44
L L D W W
11 34 11 10 13 40:40 0 43
D W L D D
12 34 10 13 11 46:53 -7 43
L D W L L
13 34 9 15 10 39:42 -3 42
D D D D D
14 34 12 6 16 41:41 0 42
W L W L W
15 34 11 8 15 42:46 -4 41
L L D D W
16 34 12 7 15 62:65 -3 38
L L L L L
17 34 9 9 16 34:61 -27 36
L L D D L
18 34 9 7 18 43:65 -22 34
W W L L W
Champions League Qualification
Conference League Qualification
Relegation