POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
20.09.2026 15:30
Chorten Arena
Referee: Karol Arys, Poland
Jagiellonia
Match Timeline
Legia Warszawa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
R. Augustyniak
Legia Warszawa
⚽
20'
N. Prelec
Legia Warszawa
⚽
35'
J. Imaz
Jagiellonia
🔄
46'
R. Vinagre ↔ A. Reca
Legia Warszawa
🔄
57'
M. Szczepaniak ↔ J. Zewlakow
Legia Warszawa
🔄
57'
J. Kuchta ↔ L. Zjawinski
Legia Warszawa
🔄
57'
M. Sevcik ↔ R. Adamski
Legia Warszawa
🔄
65'
A. Klynge ↔ S. Lozano
Jagiellonia
🔄
65'
N. Wojtuszek ↔ J. Agbonifo
Jagiellonia
⚽
75'
P. Wszolek · Assist: R. Augustyniak
Legia Warszawa
VAR
80'
Jeremy Agbonifo
Jagiellonia
🔄
84'
K. Szmyt ↔ A. Cirkovic
Jagiellonia
🔄
84'
N. Prelec ↔ D. Rallis
Jagiellonia
🟨
86'
Rafał Adamski
Legia Warszawa
🔄
87'
P. Wszolek ↔ K. Chodyna
Legia Warszawa
🔄
90+1'
E. Kozlowski ↔ D. Drachal
Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia vs Legia Warszawa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93.1%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.76
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93.1%
1.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
86%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.76 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71%
1.34 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.33 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
11.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Jagiellonia Win 49.2%
Draw 6.9%
Legia Warszawa Win 44%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jagiellonia1.4
Legia Warszawa1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
WWDLW
35 GF / 22 GA
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa
WLDWL
40 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.9
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1
12
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
10
4.25
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 21 matches
Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa 21 matches
Jagiellonia Statistic Legia Warszawa
13 Wins 12
3 Draws 8
5 Losses 1
35 Goals For 40
22 Goals Against 21
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.9
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1
12 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 17
12 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 6
3 Failed To Score 2
4.25 Shots On Goal 5
7.75 Total Shots 16
2.83 Corners 4.63
46.6% Ball Possession 51.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Legia Warszawa. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Jagiellonia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Legia Warszawa in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Legia Warszawa having the stronger overall control. Jagiellonia have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Jagiellonia Analysis

Jagiellonia approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 7 with 12 points from 7 matches. The overall return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats with a 11:10 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Prelec (2 goals), O. Sow (2 goals), K. Szmyt (1 goals), with creative support from N. Prelec (1 assists), K. Szmyt (1 assists), Sergio Lozano (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

Legia Warszawa Analysis

Placed 3 with 15 points from 7 outings, Legia Warszawa continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 0 defeats, together with a 15:6 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Ł. Zjawiński (3 goals), R. Augustyniak (2 goals), B. Kapustka (2 goals), with creative support from Paweł Wszołek (4 assists), Rúben Vinagre (2 assists), R. Augustyniak (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Jagiellonia won 3 times, Legia Warszawa won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:26 from Jagiellonia's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.8 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.1%)
Predicted formations: Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1 / Legia Warszawa 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: Jagiellonia wins 3, draws 6, Legia Warszawa wins 6

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 9 7 1 1 16:8 8 22
D W W W W
2 9 5 4 0 19:8 11 19
W D W D D
3 8 6 1 1 17:7 10 19
W L W W W
4 9 5 2 2 17:12 5 17
W W D W D
5 8 4 3 1 12:6 6 15
W W D D D
6 9 4 3 2 12:10 2 15
W L W D W
7 9 4 3 2 11:10 1 15
L W W D D
8 9 4 1 4 16:15 1 13
L W W W D
9 8 4 0 4 16:13 3 12
W L L W W
10 8 4 0 4 12:13 -1 12
L L W L W
11 8 3 2 3 9:12 -3 11
W W D L L
12 9 1 6 2 13:13 0 9
D D D L D
13 9 2 2 5 9:14 -5 8
L L L L W
14 9 2 2 5 7:20 -13 8
L L D W D
15 9 1 3 5 11:15 -4 6
L L L D D
16 9 1 3 5 9:15 -6 6
D L L L D
17 8 1 2 5 11:17 -6 5
D L D L L
18 9 1 0 8 12:21 -9 3
L L W L L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
Play-offs
Relegation