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POLAND › EKSTRAKLASA
10.10.2026 18:15
Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku
Referee: Wojciech Myc
Jagiellonia
Match Timeline
Gornik Zabrze
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
38'
Rafał Janicki
Gornik Zabrze
🟨
47'
Ondrej Zmrzly
Gornik Zabrze
⚽
51'
Jarosław Kubicki · Assist: Sondre Liseth
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
58'
Yvan Ikia Dimi ↔ Peter Federico González Carmona
Gornik Zabrze
⚽
58'
Sondre Liseth
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
65'
Ousmane Sow ↔ Ferslev Anders Klynge
Jagiellonia
🔄
65'
Cezary Polak ↔ Bartlomiej Wdowik
Jagiellonia
🔄
66'
Sergio Lozano ↔ Jeremy Agbonifo
Jagiellonia
⚽
67'
Jesús Imaz
Jagiellonia
🟨
71'
Jeremy Agbonifo
Jagiellonia
🔄
71'
Sondre Liseth ↔ Erik Prekop
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
71'
Maksym Khlan ↔ Zeidane Inoussa
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
73'
Kajetan·Szmyt ↔ Aleksandar·Cirkovic
Jagiellonia
VAR
75'
Jesús Imaz
Jagiellonia
🟨
83'
Jarosław Kubicki
Gornik Zabrze
🔄
84'
Rodrigo Conceição ↔ Kamil Jóźwiak
Jagiellonia
🟨
90+3'
Malthe Hojholt
Gornik Zabrze
🟨
90+5'
Yuki Kobayashi
Jagiellonia
🔄
90+5'
Paulo Bernardo ↔ Kacper Urbanski
Gornik Zabrze
⚽
90+14'
Kacper Urbanski
Gornik Zabrze

Jagiellonia vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.1%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds 1.62
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.1%
1.30 ▥
BTTS Yes
62.8%
1.62 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
1.88 ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
75.5%
1.32 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
21.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Jagiellonia Win 39.9%
Draw 11.9%
Gornik Zabrze Win 48.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jagiellonia1.48
Gornik Zabrze1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jagiellonia Jagiellonia
WWDLW
42 GF / 27 GA
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze
WLDWL
34 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.75
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.13
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
14
BTTS Yes
14
15
Over 2.5
13
4.23
Shots on Goal
4.33

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 24 matches
Gornik Zabrze Gornik Zabrze 24 matches
Jagiellonia Statistic Gornik Zabrze
14 Wins 13
3 Draws 4
7 Losses 7
42 Goals For 34
27 Goals Against 26
1.75 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.13 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
14 BTTS Yes 14
19 Over 1.5 18
15 Over 2.5 13
6 Over 3.5 4
8 Clean Sheets 7
3 Failed To Score 5
4.23 Shots On Goal 4.33
8.54 Total Shots 12.8
2.92 Corners 5.53
48.2% Ball Possession 48.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Gornik Zabrze's more proactive style and Jagiellonia's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Gornik Zabrze. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Gornik Zabrze carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 22 points while Jagiellonia sit 10 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Jagiellonia expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Gornik Zabrze in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gornik Zabrze having the stronger overall control. Gornik Zabrze look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Jagiellonia Analysis

Jagiellonia sit 10 with 12 points after 8 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats with a 12:13 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on N. Prelec (2 goals), Jesús Imaz (2 goals), O. Sow (2 goals), with creative support from N. Prelec (1 assists), K. Szmyt (1 assists), Sergio Lozano (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gornik Zabrze Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 22 points from 9 games, Gornik Zabrze bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, with a 16:8 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on Peter (4 goals), K. Urbański (3 goals), E. Prekop (2 goals), with creative support from K. Urbański (1 assists), Josema Sánchez (1 assists), R. Janicki (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Jagiellonia won 6 times, Gornik Zabrze won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:24 from Jagiellonia's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Jagiellonia 4-2-3-1 / Gornik Zabrze 4-3-3
H2H summary: Jagiellonia wins 6, draws 2, Gornik Zabrze wins 7

Standings

Ekstraklasa
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 1 1 19:9 10 25
W D W W W
2 9 7 1 1 21:8 13 22
W W L W W
3 9 5 4 0 19:8 11 19
W D W D D
4 9 5 2 2 17:12 5 17
W W D W D
5 10 5 1 4 18:16 2 16
W L W W W
6 9 5 0 4 20:14 6 15
W W L L W
7 8 4 3 1 12:6 6 15
W W D D D
8 9 4 3 2 12:10 2 15
W L W D W
9 10 4 3 3 12:13 -1 15
L L W W D
10 9 4 0 5 13:16 -3 12
L L L W L
11 10 3 2 5 12:15 -3 11
W L L L L
12 9 3 2 4 9:15 -6 11
L W W D L
13 10 1 6 3 14:15 -1 9
L D D D L
14 9 2 2 5 14:17 -3 8
W D L D L
15 9 2 2 5 7:20 -13 8
L L D W D
16 9 1 3 5 9:15 -6 6
D L L L D
17 10 1 3 6 12:19 -7 6
L L L L D
18 10 1 0 9 13:25 -12 3
L L L W L
Qualifying
EL Qualification
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