BRAZIL SERIE C
22.08.2026 20:00
Referee: M. de Sousa
Ituano
Match Timeline
Paysandu
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
33'
Richard
Ituano
🟨
36'
Brian Macapa
Paysandu
🔄
38'
Bruno Bispo ↔ Gustavo Henrique
Paysandu
🟨
39'
Gustavo Henrique
Paysandu
🔄
46'
Neto Berola ↔ Alason Carioca
Ituano
🔄
46'
Richard ↔ Leo Passos
Ituano
🟨
61'
Pedro Carrerette
Paysandu
🟨
67'
Gabriel William
Ituano
🟨
70'
Guilherme Xavier
Ituano
🔄
77'
Brian Macapa ↔ Tiago Indio
Paysandu
🔄
77'
Thayllon ↔ Thalyson
Paysandu
🔄
77'
Kleiton Pego ↔ Pablo
Paysandu
🔄
80'
Guilherme Dal Pian ↔ Tiaguinho
Ituano
🔄
80'
Gabriel William ↔ Felipe Muranga
Ituano
🟨
85'
Tiaguinho
Ituano
🔄
88'
Luciano Taboca ↔ Lucas Cardoso
Paysandu
89'
Italo Carvalho
Paysandu
🟨
90+4'
Leo Coltro
Ituano
🔄
90+1'
Martha ↔ Bruno Mezenga
Ituano

Ituano vs Paysandu Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.6%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ituano Win 51.6%
Draw 11.3%
Paysandu Win 37%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ituano1.25
Paysandu1.31
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ituano Ituano
WWDLW
18 GF / 18 GA
Paysandu Paysandu
WLDWL
25 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.47
1.06
Average Goals Conceded
1.53
6
BTTS Yes
12
6
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ituano Ituano 17 matches
Paysandu Paysandu 17 matches
Ituano Statistic Paysandu
6 Wins 8
4 Draws 2
7 Losses 7
18 Goals For 25
18 Goals Against 26
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.47
1.06 Avg Goals Conceded 1.53
6 BTTS Yes 12
10 Over 1.5 14
6 Over 2.5 11
4 Over 3.5 5
6 Clean Sheets 2
7 Failed To Score 3
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Paysandu carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 26 points while Ituano sit 12 on 22, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paysandu having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Paysandu. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Ituano Analysis

With 22 points from 16 games and a place of 12, Ituano still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats with a 18:17 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

Paysandu Analysis

With 26 points from 16 games and a place of 4, Paysandu still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 25:22, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Ituano won 2 times, Paysandu won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:9 from Ituano's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.7%)
H2H summary: Ituano wins 2, draws 0, Paysandu wins 3

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L L W W
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
D W D D W
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W D W L W
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W L W W W
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
W L W W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D D L
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
L L L W L
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W D W L
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation