BRAZIL SERIE C
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: C. Deretti
Ituano
Match Timeline
Maranhão
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Will
Maranhão
🟨
28'
Gabriel William
Ituano
🟨
37'
Tiaguinho
Ituano
🟨
44'
Keven
Maranhão
🔄
59'
Thassio ↔ Alason Carioca
Ituano
🔄
59'
Richard ↔ Lucas Stefanello
Ituano
🔄
59'
Leo Passos ↔ Gabriel Razera
Ituano
🔄
74'
Rafael Teixeira ↔ Felipe Sales
Maranhão
🔄
74'
Felipe Cruz ↔ Joelson
Maranhão
🟨
83'
Jean
Maranhão
🔄
84'
Keven ↔ Edson Fernando
Maranhão
🟨
86'
Vander
Maranhão
🔄
87'
Neto Berola ↔ Bruno Mezenga
Ituano
🟨
90+6'
Joelson
Maranhão
🔄
90+3'
Jorge Rocha ↔ Railson
Maranhão

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.1%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ituano Win 74.1%
Draw 4.2%
Maranhão Win 21.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ituano1.25
Maranhão0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ituano Ituano
WWDLW
15 GF / 12 GA
Maranhão Maranhão
WLDWL
9 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
5
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ituano Ituano 11 matches
Maranhão Maranhão 11 matches
Ituano Statistic Maranhão
5 Wins 3
3 Draws 4
3 Losses 4
15 Goals For 9
12 Goals Against 12
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
5 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Ituano's more proactive style and Maranhão's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Maranhão. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Ituano arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 18 points compared to Maranhão in 16 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Maranhão having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ituano Analysis

Ituano come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 18 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 15:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Neto Berola (3 goals), Gabriel Razera (2 goals), Alason Carioca (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Maranhão Analysis

With 13 points from 10 games and a place of 16, Maranhão still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 9:11, reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their threat comes through Vagalume (3 goals), Felipe Cruz (2 goals), Vander (2 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Ituano won 0 times, Maranhão won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:0 from Ituano's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
H2H summary: Ituano wins 0, draws 1, Maranhão wins 0

Lineups

Ituano
Formation
Maranhão
Saulo
Saulo
Lucas Mota
Lucas Mota
Carlao
Carlao
Leo Coltro
Leo Coltro
Gabriel William
Gabriel William
Tiaguinho
Tiaguinho
Thassio
Thassio
Richard
Richard
Leo Passos
Leo Passos
Guilherme Xavier
Guilherme Xavier
Neto Berola
Neto Berola
Jean
Jean
Keven
Keven
Lucao
Lucao
Tiburcio
Tiburcio
Vander
Vander
Rosivan
Rosivan
Jorge Rocha
Jorge Rocha
Will
Will
Felipe Cruz
Felipe Cruz
Rafael Teixeira
Rafael Teixeira
Andre Radija
Andre Radija
Ituano 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Saulo
2
Lucas Mota
3
Carlao
4
Leo Coltro
5
Gabriel William
🟨 28'
6
Tiaguinho
🟨 37'
7
Thassio
↓ 59'
8
Richard
↓ 59'
9
Leo Passos
↓ 59'
10
Guilherme Xavier
11
Neto Berola
↓ 87'
Substitutes
12
J. Pantera
13
Victor Reis
14
Leandro Sergipe
15
Martha
16
Guilherme Dal Pian
17
Alason Carioca
↑ 59'
18
Nelsinho
19
Bruno Mezenga
↑ 87'
20
Felipe Muranga
21
Lucas Stefanello
↑ 59'
22
Marlinho
23
Gabriel Razera
↑ 59'
Maranhão 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
Jean
🟨 83'
18
Keven
↓ 84' 🟨 44'
4
Lucao
14
Tiburcio
8
Vander
🟨 86'
15
Rosivan
10
Jorge Rocha
↓ 90+3'
17
Will
🟨 18'
29
Felipe Cruz
↓ 74'
19
Rafael Teixeira
↓ 74'
16
Andre Radija
Substitutes
12
Vitao
3
Edson Fernando
↑ 84'
5
Railson
↑ 90+3'
6
Lucas Santos
7
Felipe Sales
↑ 74'
9
Joelson
↑ 74' 🟨 90+6'
13
Caio Victor
21
Pedro Lucas
22
Rodrigo
23
Caue
Last matches: Ituano
26.07.26
Ser
Ituano
Brusque
0
1
L
12.07.26
Ser
Ituano
Ferroviária
1
3
L
04.07.26
Ser
Ituano
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ituano
Figueirense
0
0
D
14.06.26
Ser
Ituano
AO Itabaiana
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Caxias
1
2
L
25.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Botafogo PB
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Guarani Campinas
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Confiança
1
0
W
05.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Ypiranga-RS
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Maringá
4
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Inter De Limeira
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Amazonas
0
3
L
05.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Anápolis
2
0
W
Last matches: Maranhão
25.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ferroviária
0
0
D
12.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ypiranga-RS
2
1
W
04.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Inter De Limeira
0
1
L
21.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Paysandu
0
1
L
15.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Maringá
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Anápolis
0
0
D
23.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Caxias
0
0
D
18.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Confiança
1
2
L
09.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Botafogo PB
3
1
W
04.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Floresta
2
1
W
25.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Volta Redonda
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Amazonas
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Barra
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Guarani Campinas
1
1
D
20.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
0
D
14.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
1
L
06.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
3
0
W
30.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
1
0
W
24.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Central SC
0
0
D
16.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Central SC
2
1
W
H2H: Ituano vs Maranhão
28.06.26
H2H
Ituano
Maranhão
0
0
D
Last matches: Ituano
12.07.26
Ser
Ituano
Ferroviária
1
3
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ituano
Figueirense
0
0
D
25.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Botafogo PB
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Ituano
Confiança
1
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Maringá
4
1
W
05.04.26
Ser
Ituano
Anápolis
2
0
W
H2H at home: Ituano
28.06.26
H2H
Ituano
Maranhão
0
0
D
Last matches: Maranhão
25.07.26
Ser
Maranhão
Ferroviária
0
0
D
15.06.26
Ser
Maranhão
Maringá
0
0
D
31.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Anápolis
0
0
D
18.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Confiança
1
2
L
04.05.26
Ser
Maranhão
Floresta
2
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Amazonas
0
2
L
11.04.26
Ser
Maranhão
Barra
0
3
L
20.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
Santa Cruz
0
0
D
06.09.25
Ser
Maranhão
ASA
3
0
W
24.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Central SC
0
0
D
10.08.25
Ser
Maranhão
Tuna Luso
0
2
L
26.07.25
Ser
Maranhão
Altos
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Maranhão
Imperatriz
0
1
L
05.07.25
Ser
Maranhão
Tocantinópolis
1
1
D
15.06.25
Ser
Maranhão
Parnahyba
2
2
D
30.05.25
Ser
Maranhão
Iguatu
0
1
L
21.05.25
Ser
Maranhão
Sampaio Correa
1
1
D
26.04.25
Ser
Maranhão
Maracanã
0
0
D
H2H away: Maranhão
28.06.26
H2H
Ituano
Maranhão
0
0
D

Standings

Serie C
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 15 8 3 4 21:15 6 27
W L W L W
2 15 7 5 3 28:15 13 26
W L D D L
3 15 8 1 6 21:16 5 25
W W W W W
4 15 7 4 4 18:17 1 25
L W W D L
5 15 7 3 5 15:11 4 24
L W W W L
6 15 7 2 6 23:21 2 23
L W L L W
7 15 6 5 4 28:25 3 23
D W W D D
8 15 6 5 4 15:12 3 23
D W L L W
9 15 6 3 6 18:19 -1 21
W L W D W
10 15 5 6 4 14:12 2 21
L D W D D
11 15 5 6 4 16:15 1 21
D D D W L
12 15 6 2 7 15:20 -5 20
W L L L D
13 15 5 5 5 13:18 -5 20
W D L D D
14 15 5 4 6 16:17 -1 19
L L L D D
15 15 5 3 7 11:19 -8 18
L D L W L
16 15 4 6 5 11:14 -3 18
D W L D L
17 15 4 5 6 13:18 -5 17
D W W W L
18 15 3 6 6 17:17 0 15
L L W L D
19 15 3 3 9 13:19 -6 12
W L L D W
20 15 3 3 9 9:15 -6 12
D L L D W
Play-offs
Relegation