BRAZIL SERIE C
28.06.2026 23:30
Referee: C. Deretti
Ituano
Match Timeline
Maranhão
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Will
Maranhão
🟨
28'
Gabriel William
Ituano
🟨
37'
Tiaguinho
Ituano
🟨
44'
Keven
Maranhão
🔄
59'
Thassio ↔ Alason Carioca
Ituano
🔄
59'
Richard ↔ Lucas Stefanello
Ituano
🔄
59'
Leo Passos ↔ Gabriel Razera
Ituano
🔄
74'
Rafael Teixeira ↔ Felipe Sales
Maranhão
🔄
74'
Felipe Cruz ↔ Joelson
Maranhão
🟨
83'
Jean
Maranhão
🔄
84'
Keven ↔ Edson Fernando
Maranhão
🟨
86'
Vander
Maranhão
🔄
87'
Neto Berola ↔ Bruno Mezenga
Ituano
🟨
90+6'
Joelson
Maranhão
🔄
90+3'
Jorge Rocha ↔ Railson
Maranhão

Ituano vs Maranhão Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.1%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ituano Win 74.1%
Draw 4.2%
Maranhão Win 21.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ituano1.25
Maranhão0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ituano Ituano
WWDLW
15 GF / 12 GA
Maranhão Maranhão
WLDWL
9 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1.36
Average Goals Scored
0.82
1.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.09
5
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ituano Ituano 11 matches
Maranhão Maranhão 11 matches
Ituano Statistic Maranhão
5 Wins 3
3 Draws 4
3 Losses 4
15 Goals For 9
12 Goals Against 12
1.36 Avg Goals Scored 0.82
1.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.09
5 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 7
5 Over 2.5 5
3 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 3
3 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Ituano's more proactive style and Maranhão's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Maranhão. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Ituano arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 18 points compared to Maranhão in 16 on 13, which underlines the gap in season consistency. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Maranhão having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ituano Analysis

Ituano come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 18 points from 11 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 15:12 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Neto Berola (3 goals), Gabriel Razera (2 goals), Alason Carioca (1 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Maranhão Analysis

With 13 points from 10 games and a place of 16, Maranhão still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 9:11, reflects poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their threat comes through Vagalume (3 goals), Felipe Cruz (2 goals), Vander (2 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Ituano won 0 times, Maranhão won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:0 from Ituano's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
H2H summary: Ituano wins 0, draws 1, Maranhão wins 0

Standings

First stage
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 10 3 6 28:19 9 33
L L L W W
2 19 9 5 5 28:22 6 32
L D W D D
3 19 8 6 5 22:15 7 30
W W D W L
4 19 8 6 5 32:30 2 30
W L W W W
5 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
L W L W W
6 19 8 6 5 22:20 2 30
D D D D D
7 19 9 2 8 26:27 -1 29
D L L L W
8 19 8 5 6 20:15 5 29
W W W D W
9 19 8 5 6 27:24 3 29
D W D W W
10 19 7 7 5 34:24 10 28
D L D L W
11 19 7 7 5 19:22 -3 28
W D W D W
12 19 7 6 6 19:18 1 27
L W W W D
13 19 7 5 7 21:23 -2 26
D D D W W
14 19 6 7 6 17:16 1 25
D L L W L
15 19 6 4 9 18:21 -3 22
L L L W L
16 19 6 3 10 13:25 -12 21
L L W L L
17 19 5 6 8 21:21 0 21
W L W L L
18 19 5 4 10 17:22 -5 19
D W L W W
19 19 4 5 10 14:27 -13 17
L L L L D
20 19 3 4 12 11:20 -9 13
L L D L D
Play-offs
Relegation