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WORLD › WORLD CUP - QUALIFICATION EUROPE
--.--.---- --:--
Italy
FT
5 - 0
Estonia
New Balance Arena
Referee: J. Pinheiro
Italy
Match Timeline
Estonia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
31'
Patrik Kristal
Estonia
⚽
58'
M. Kean · Assist: M. Retegui
Italy
🔄
61'
P. Kristal ↔ M. Ainsalu
Estonia
🟨
64'
Alessandro Bastoni
Italy
🔄
66'
F. Dimarco ↔ A. Cambiaso
Italy
🔄
67'
M. Zaccagni ↔ G. Raspadori
Italy
🔄
67'
V. Sinyavskiy ↔ R. Saarma
Estonia
⚽
69'
M. Retegui · Assist: G. Raspadori
Italy
⚽
71'
G. Raspadori · Assist: M. Politano
Italy
🔄
76'
S. Tonali ↔ M. Locatelli
Italy
🔄
76'
M. Politano ↔ R. Orsolini
Italy
🟨
77'
Maksim Paskotsi
Estonia
🔄
80'
R. Sappinen ↔ H. Anier
Estonia
🔄
80'
M. Paskotsi ↔ J. Tamm
Estonia
🔄
80'
R. R. Shein ↔ M. Soomets
Estonia
🔄
84'
M. Kean ↔ F. Esposito
Italy
⚽
89'
M. Retegui · Assist: A. Cambiaso
Italy
🟨
90+5'
Henri Anier
Estonia
⚽
90'
A. Bastoni · Assist: G. Raspadori
Italy

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
Probability Distribution
Italy Win 0%
Draw 0%
Estonia Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Italy1.82
Estonia1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Italy Italy
WWDLW
19 GF / 16 GA
Estonia Estonia
WLDWL
8 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.9
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
7
BTTS Yes
4
8
Over 2.5
6
4
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Italy Italy 10 matches
Estonia Estonia 10 matches
Italy Statistic Estonia
5 Wins 2
2 Draws 1
3 Losses 7
19 Goals For 8
16 Goals Against 17
1.9 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
7 BTTS Yes 4
9 Over 1.5 6
8 Over 2.5 6
5 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 6
4 Shots On Goal 3.5
17 Total Shots 8
4.5 Corners 2.75
64% Ball Possession 41.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Italy won 3 times, Estonia won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:1 from Italy's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4.33 goals per game.

Predicted formations: Italy 4-4-2 / Estonia -
H2H summary: Italy wins 3, draws 0, Estonia wins 0
Stats
Italy Italy
Estonia Estonia
Shots on Goal
13
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
14
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
13
Blocked Shots
0
12 Corner Kicks 3
9 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1
70% Ball Possession 30%
40 Total Shots 4
13 Shots on Goal 2
14 Shots off Goal 2
13 Blocked Shots 0
25 Shots insidebox 1
15 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 8
632 Total passes 276
569 Passes accurate 210
5.23 expected_goals 0.70
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Italy
Formation
Estonia
G. Donnarumma
G. Donnarumma
G. Di Lorenzo
G. Di Lorenzo
A. Bastoni
⚽
A. Bastoni
R. Calafiori
R. Calafiori
F. Dimarco
↓
F. Dimarco
M. Politano
🎯 ↓
M. Politano
N. Barella
N. Barella
S. Tonali
↓
S. Tonali
M. Zaccagni
↓
M. Zaccagni
M. Kean
⚽ ↓
M. Kean
M. Retegui
⚽ 2 🎯
M. Retegui
K. Hein
K. Hein
M. Schjonning-Larsen
M. Schjonning-Larsen
M. Paskotsi
↓
M. Paskotsi
M. Kuusk
M. Kuusk
J. Saliste
J. Saliste
K. Palumets
K. Palumets
R. R. Shein
↓
R. R. Shein
M. Kait
M. Kait
P. Kristal
↓
P. Kristal
V. Sinyavskiy
↓
V. Sinyavskiy
R. Sappinen
↓
R. Sappinen
Italy 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
G. Donnarumma
G
22
G. Di Lorenzo
D
21
A. Bastoni
⚽ 90' 🟨 64'
D
13
R. Calafiori
D
3
F. Dimarco
↓ 66'
D
7
M. Politano
🎯 71' ↓ 76'
M
18
N. Barella
M
8
S. Tonali
↓ 76'
M
20
M. Zaccagni
↓ 67'
M
11
M. Kean
⚽ 58' ↓ 84'
F
9
M. Retegui
⚽ 69' ⚽ 89' 🎯 58'
F
Substitutes
12
A. Meret
G
14
G. Vicario
G
2
R. Bellanova
D
4
F. Gatti
D
5
M. Locatelli
↑ 76'
M
6
N. Rovella
M
10
G. Raspadori
⚽ 71' 🎯 69' 🎯 90' ↑ 67'
F
15
F. Esposito
↑ 84'
F
16
D. Frattesi
M
17
R. Orsolini
↑ 76'
F
19
A. Cambiaso
🎯 89' ↑ 66'
D
23
G. Mancini
D
Estonia 4-5-1 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
K. Hein
G
18
M. Schjonning-Larsen
D
13
M. Paskotsi
↓ 80' 🟨 77'
D
2
M. Kuusk
D
3
J. Saliste
D
10
K. Palumets
M
5
R. R. Shein
↓ 80'
M
4
M. Kait
M
14
P. Kristal
↓ 61' 🟨 31'
M
23
V. Sinyavskiy
↓ 67'
M
15
R. Sappinen
↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
12
M. Igonen
G
22
K. Vallner
G
6
R. Peetson
D
7
R. Saarma
↑ 67'
M
8
H. Anier
↑ 80' 🟨 90+5'
F
9
I. Yakovlev
11
M. Ainsalu
↑ 61'
M
16
J. Tamm
↑ 80'
D
17
M. Miller
M
19
T. Tammik
D
20
E. Tur
D
21
M. Soomets
↑ 80'
M
Last matches: Italy
07.06.26
Fri
Italy
Greece
1
0
W
03.06.26
Fri
Italy
Luxembourg
1
0
W
31.03.26
Wor
Italy
Bosnia & Herzegovina
1
1
D
26.03.26
Wor
Italy
Northern Ireland
2
0
W
16.11.25
Wor
Italy
Norway
1
4
L
13.11.25
Wor
Italy
Moldova
2
0
W
14.10.25
Wor
Italy
Israel
3
0
W
11.10.25
Wor
Italy
Estonia
3
1
W
08.09.25
Wor
Italy
Israel
5
4
W
09.06.25
Wor
Italy
Moldova
2
0
W
06.06.25
Wor
Italy
Norway
0
3
L
23.03.25
UEF
Italy
Germany
3
3
D
20.03.25
UEF
Italy
Germany
1
2
L
17.11.24
UEF
Italy
France
1
3
L
14.11.24
UEF
Italy
Belgium
1
0
W
14.10.24
UEF
Italy
Israel
4
1
W
10.10.24
UEF
Italy
Belgium
2
2
D
09.09.24
UEF
Italy
Israel
2
1
W
06.09.24
UEF
Italy
France
3
1
W
Last matches: Estonia
13.11.25
Wor
Estonia
Norway
1
4
L
14.10.25
Wor
Estonia
Moldova
1
1
D
11.10.25
Wor
Estonia
Italy
1
3
L
09.06.25
Wor
Estonia
Norway
0
1
L
06.06.25
Wor
Estonia
Israel
1
3
L
25.03.25
Wor
Estonia
Moldova
3
2
W
22.03.25
Wor
Estonia
Israel
1
2
L
19.11.24
UEF
Estonia
Slovakia
0
1
L
16.11.24
UEF
Estonia
Azerbaijan
0
0
D
14.10.24
UEF
Estonia
Sweden
0
3
L
11.10.24
UEF
Estonia
Azerbaijan
3
1
W
08.09.24
UEF
Estonia
Sweden
0
3
L
05.09.24
UEF
Estonia
Slovakia
0
1
L
H2H: Italy vs Estonia
11.10.25
H2H
Estonia
Italy
1
3
W
05.09.25
H2H
Italy
Estonia
5
0
W
11.11.20
H2H
Italy
Estonia
4
0
W
Last matches: Italy
26.03.26
Wor
Italy
Northern Ireland
2
0
W
16.11.25
Wor
Italy
Norway
1
4
L
14.10.25
Wor
Italy
Israel
3
0
W
09.06.25
Wor
Italy
Moldova
2
0
W
20.03.25
UEF
Italy
Germany
1
2
L
17.11.24
UEF
Italy
France
1
3
L
14.10.24
UEF
Italy
Israel
4
1
W
10.10.24
UEF
Italy
Belgium
2
2
D
H2H at home: Italy
05.09.25
H2H
Italy
Estonia
5
0
W
11.11.20
H2H
Italy
Estonia
4
0
W
Last matches: Estonia
13.11.25
Wor
Estonia
Norway
1
4
L
25.03.25
Wor
Estonia
Moldova
3
2
W
22.03.25
Wor
Estonia
Israel
1
2
L
19.11.24
UEF
Estonia
Slovakia
0
1
L
16.11.24
UEF
Estonia
Azerbaijan
0
0
D
08.09.24
UEF
Estonia
Sweden
0
3
L
H2H away: Estonia
05.09.25
H2H
Italy
Estonia
5
0
L
11.11.20
H2H
Italy
Estonia
4
0
L

Standings

Group I
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Norway
8 8 0 0 37:5 32 24
W W W W W
2
Italy Home
8 6 0 2 21:12 9 18
L W W W W
3
Israel
8 4 0 4 19:20 -1 12
W L L L W
4
Estonia Away
8 1 1 6 8:21 -13 4
L D L L L
5
Moldova
8 0 1 7 5:32 -27 1
L L D L L
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