25.09.2026 18:45
Stadio Olimpico
Referee: Daniel Siebert
Italy
Match Timeline
Belgium
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
20'
Mika Godts · Assist: Kevin De Bruyne
Belgium
🟨
25'
Nicolas Raskin
Belgium
🟨
29'
Diego Moreira
Belgium
🔄
58'
Kevin De Bruyne ↔ Hans Vanaken
Belgium
🔄
58'
Diego Moreira ↔ Dodi Lukebakio
Belgium
🟨
63'
Gianluca Mancini
Italy
🔄
65'
Diego Coppola ↔ Giorgio Scalvini
Italy
🔄
65'
Pio Esposito ↔ Daniel Maldini
Italy
🔄
65'
Alessandro Romano ↔ Davide Frattesi
Italy
⚽
69'
Dodi Lukebakio · Assist: Charles De Ketelaere
Belgium
🔄
74'
Nicolas Raskin ↔ Romeo Lavia
Belgium
🟨
80'
Romeo Lavia
Belgium
🔄
80'
Nicolò Barella ↔ Issa Doumbia
Italy
🔄
80'
Nicolo Cambiaghi ↔ Mohamed Alì Zoma
Italy
🔄
83'
Mika Godts ↔ Matias Fernandez-Pardo
Belgium
🔄
83'
Charles De Ketelaere ↔ Romelu Lukaku
Belgium
🟨
89'
Matias Fernandez-Pardo
Belgium
🟨
90+1'
Daniel Maldini
Italy
🟨
90+4'
Gianluigi Donnarumma
Italy
🟨
90+4'
Romelu Lukaku
Belgium

Italy vs Belgium Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 44.8%
Odds 2.26
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.53
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 1.63
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
44.8%
2.26 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.53 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
1.63 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.22 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Italy Win 44.8%
Draw 16.8%
Belgium Win 38.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Italy1
Belgium1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
Italy Italy
WWDLW
2 GF / 0 GA
Belgium Belgium
WLDWL
27 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
2.7
0
Average Goals Conceded
1
0
BTTS Yes
7
0
Over 2.5
6
3
Shots on Goal
6.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Italy Italy 2 matches
Belgium Belgium 10 matches
Italy Statistic Belgium
2 Wins 6
0 Draws 3
0 Losses 1
2 Goals For 27
0 Goals Against 10
1 Avg Goals Scored 2.7
0 Avg Goals Conceded 1
0 BTTS Yes 7
0 Over 1.5 9
0 Over 2.5 6
0 Over 3.5 5
2 Clean Sheets 3
0 Failed To Score 1
3 Shots On Goal 6.2
12.5 Total Shots 17.3
5 Corners 4.9
47% Ball Possession 51.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Italy won 4 times, Belgium won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:4 from Italy's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.2%)
Predicted formations: Italy 4-3-3 / Belgium 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Italy wins 4, draws 1, Belgium wins 0

Standings

League A - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 1 1 0 0 2:0 2 3
W
2 1 1 0 0 1:0 1 3
W
3 1 0 0 1 0:1 -1 0
L
4
Italy Home
1 0 0 1 0:2 -2 0
L
Play Offs: Quarter-finals
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation